Not related to Crude trading - But related to all kind of trading.
I am sure whoever entered the trading business and faltered, might have started to study all short of documents/books/videos on trading to get this right. If you are one of those, definitely might have come across ' Herd Mentality' - People following others like Sheep.
I am talking about the 500/1000 rupee exchange rush. I don't want to hurt anyone, I agree that there are definite cases for immediate withdrawals.
But if you look at the lines outside Banks - you will see that, does not look like all actually had urgency, they went just because all are going. Intellectually they know they have time, but they will follow the crowd.
That’s why, once you edge up your mentality and study more on the group reaction pattern of people (traders on chart) around - your chances of winning on trades multiplies.
Regardless EMA, ATR, BB, ST, VWAP, OI whatever TA you may use - you are actually dealing with peoples (and some Algo without emotion).
If you know when (the price levels) they will follow the HERD of the rest and when they will panic - half the job is done. You need not to be among top 5% of the trader, but if you can keep yourself ahead of rest 60% during panic / and enthusiasm - you will win 7/10 cases – more than enough. This is the only trading system – that always works.