Turn false signals into profit

[Riskyman]

If 95% people in trading are loosing money trading then it makes sense to figure out what they are doing wrong and do exactly the opposite of what they are doing. This would work in your favor if they are did the wrong thing 95% of all the times. Problem is finding out what the 95% are doing one thing wrong...There is no one thing. There can be 100 reasons.

You are better off looking for a system that gives you 40% winners than find a system that gives you 70% failures (if you intend to do reverse)

 

[ankur07090]

Hello,

i think you will get more losses with ur new strategy(i.e going against ur original signal)......already lot of traders done backtesting on this and got negative results....sometimes markets make u feel like to go opposite,in reality it will give more losses as far as i know....,

supertrend indicator is trend following....u can't expect more winning trades in range bound markets...its originally made for Nifty and Banknifty....,u may need to tweak its parametres to suit ur markets...i think u are using fixed lots with this indicator....try changing/altering ur position sizing...


Thanks & Regards

Hi
can you please enlighten about changing position sizing
are you saying I have to increase lot after first SL hit
not got ur point
thanks

 

[suri112000]

Reversing the trades on 70% loosing system should take into consideration MFE and MAE. Maximum trades go into MAE region and hit SL before moving in the desired direction because of tight SL.

 

[onlinegtrash]

I am newbie to trading and for past 1 year in conmodity market. I am lose some money in past 1 year. Anyway I again learing TA and following some indicator like supertrend. I have seen that it gives a lot of false signals in rangebound market.
I was thinking if I just do opposite of its signals with opposite profit and stoploss then what will happen.
like if it give buy signal I sell with 15 points stoploss and profit with 25 as with 5TF

Anybody have any suggestion or view please share

Thanks

Winning in trading is like building an airplane, taking it off from ground and keeping it balanced in air without crashing it.

You can't build an airplane by just doing the opposite of what losers have done.
You need to do what winners do.

A losers method simply shows what doesn't work, it is still NOT showing what will work!
or a losers method is NOT at all in fault, the problem could be with *the loser* instead of his tools or the loser is working with partial or wrong set of tools!

 

[Trader987]

If you are using one strategy which is giving you 90% failure and now you are doing completely opposite to it then also you will get failure. It happens because most of the traders cut their winning trades early and loosing trades late.

 

[mohan.sic]

I am newbie to trading and for past 1 year in conmodity market. I am lose some money in past 1 year. Anyway I again learing TA and following some indicator like supertrend. I have seen that it gives a lot of false signals in rangebound market.I was thinking if I just do opposite of its signals with opposite profit and stoploss then what will happen.
like if it give buy signal I sell with 15 points stoploss and profit with 25 as with 5TF

Anybody have any suggestion or view please share

Thanks

You asked a very inspiring question in a simple way.

" if a strategy is failing 80 % of time why not use it opposite way and make money "

Virtually it looks correct. But i think its not possible consistently.

There are many aspects to, why this logic wont work. But one simple answer is already there in your question.
You said lot of wrong signals in range bound market. This is not enough.

If you see lot of wrong signals in every kind of market ( trending/choppy --not just range bound ) then your idea of opposite signals may work.

A Rain coat for a rainy Day. And umbrella for a sunny day.

Is Rain coat useful .. YES on a Rainy day
Is Rain coat useful ..NO on a Sunny day

Problem is not with rain coat ..its with the climate.

Problem is not with the strategy... its with market.

What kind of Move in market( trending/choppy etc ) - will decide the success/failure of the strategy. So even if we take opposite signals of our strategy they wont work consistently beacuse market movement wont be consistent.

Here enters the Analysts - They say -
"Follow this strategy for trending market" " Follow that strategy for range bound market" .......... :lol:isn't it ?

 

[Smart_trade]

You asked a very inspiring question in a simple way.

" if a strategy is failing 80 % of time why not use it opposite way and make money "

Virtually it looks correct. But i think its not possible consistently.

There are many aspects to, why this logic wont work. But one simple answer is already there in your question.
You said lot of wrong signals in range bound market. This is not enough.

If you see lot of wrong signals in every kind of market ( treading/choppy --not just range bound ) then your idea of opposite signals may work.

A Rain coat for a rainy Day. And umbrella for a sunny day.

Is Rain coat useful .. YES on a Rainy day
Is Rain coat useful ..NO on a Sunny day

Problem is not with rain coat ..its with the climate.

Problem is not with the strategy... its with market.

What kind of Move in market( trending/choppy etc ) - will decide the success/failure of the strategy. So even if we take opposite signals of our strategy they wont work consistently beacuse market movement wont be consistent.

Here enters the Analysts - They say -
"Follow this strategy for trending market" " Follow that strategy for range bound market" .......... :lol:isn't it ?

Good post. Continuing with the raincoat and umbrella example,traders must figure out what type of day is today...Rainy day or Sunny day. As traders they must have both raincoat and umbrella with them and then depending on the climate they can use either of them....and if the climate changes in between then change from Umbrella to Raincoat and vice versa....

You hit the nail on its head.

Smart_trade

 

[shirajroz]

Good post. Continuing with the raincoat and umbrella example,traders must figure out what type of day is today...Rainy day or Sunny day. As traders they must have both raincoat and umbrella with them and then depending on the climate they can use either of them....and if the climate changes in between then change from Umbrella to Raincoat and vice versa....

You hit the nail on its head.

Smart_trade

STji Namaste,
It is NOT the Rainy n Sunny days 'm worried abt, It IS the Artificial FLOODs n DROUGHTs created by the FIIs/Market Monsters 'm terrified of.

Rgrds
--ShiraJ--

 

[TradeJoker]

STji Namaste,
It is NOT the Rainy n Sunny days 'm worried abt, It IS the Artificial FLOOD n DROUGHT created by the FIIs/Market Monsters 'm terrified of.

Rgrds
--ShiraJ--

U r right ,These monsters r now genetically modified,we need extra power tools to tackle them

 

[amitrandive]

U r right ,These monsters r now genetically modified,we need extra power tools to tackle them

STji Namaste,
It is NOT the Rainy n Sunny days 'm worried abt, It IS the Artificial FLOOD n DROUGHT created by the FIIs/Market Monsters 'm terrified of.

Rgrds
--ShiraJ--

Difficult but possible ,for that we need to do what has been done in the US.
Make a different exchange (like IEX)which provides preferences for investors orders overs Algo orders and trading platforms(like Thor) to do that.

http://www.wikiwand.com/en/THOR_(trading_platform)
http://www.wikiwand.com/en/IEX