Two proposals About Candlestick ...

[priyanvada]

But your later posts indeed disappointed me.

Dear RSI,

... I am really sorry if I have disappointed you in anyway ... better i suggest a strategy to you for me ....

Just treat priyanvada as a hopeless case!

... then it will be easy to move on... you won't get a chance to get disappointed from me later on ...

... So anyway your emphasis on basics is absolutely important which I totally agree ... I agree that other than price time and volume everything is just a derivative ... But man based on that derivative many ones are making their living...So whats wrong about them?...

And also do you claim that if I provide you only price time and volume then you would take better than decisions than someone of your experience who is candlestick reader and who uses all those indicators like a king uses spy messengers in a war for his own advantage?!

...do you claim that you would perform better in above scenario, because you have unlearned the so called Junk, and mastered the basics....

In no way I want to fight you with you because you will always defeat me since you have seen more monsoon than me with open eyes... but I am just fighting for the "advanced weapons" which right now I guess would always be handy if used in addition to basics...

What do you think?

regards,
priyanvada

 

[RSI]

I have only one suggestion.

Go through Saint's threads in this forum. See how simple and straight forward they are. See how he uses price alone (mind you no candlesticks no indicators but just a few lines of support/resistance/trend etc. on simple and beautiful charts) and how trades can be picked up by using the price data alone. He gives a few simple methods. There are many more methods to trade using price, volume and time.

If after going through these threads by Saint, you still believe that you need indicator, then best of luck. I have nothing to say.

Wishing you all the best
Regards
R. S. Iyer

 

[RSI]

Keeping concentration on price, volume and time is the closest that you can get to any trend. Maximum money can be made only by entering the trend early and staying with the trend to the maximum point of time. So learn to identify trends. Since indicators are derivatives of one of these datas, by the time you pick up trend with the help of these indicators, it may be too late. Remember it is not the number of winning trades that makes the difference, but the outwieghing of losses in all other trades in a few (may be many) winning trades that decides whether one stays in the market or not. A smart trader who is pretty close to the action, enters the trade at the least point of risk (i.e. at the early stage of the trend) and the one who follows indicators enters the trade at the belated stage (i.e. at higher risk). How much has remained in one's account after offsetting all losses will decide whether he will stay in the market or not. That is why I reminded that there is no better data that price, volume and time to keep one as close to the action as possible.

 

[priyanvada]

You talk with points!... I love that...i will also answer them one by one...

1. Clearly, by any means, I am not a master trader.

...

Don't be modest here ... you are the master ... Sit beside me ... lets trade for ten days with same amount ... and the end of ten days you would have made at least 50% or more profit on capital ... I would have ruined everything because of my superficial knowledge ... So you should be happily blunt here ... You are a master!!
No Arguments over this now!:annoyed:

2. I never said that you should not study candlesticks or indicators.

Ya I understand ... but your overall shouting over that was hinting me to leave that subject!

3. It takes a lot of time and effort to unlearn

I feel it is an ART ... So if you can't master it and if it is making the whole show ugly then better unlearn it and present what skill you are mastered of! So I would rather take efforts to learn them and keep them with me and use whenever I want to support my decisions!
It would be great if i became master of them and not a slave ... I feel they have deceived you in the past and you have changed your attitude towards them...which is sad if TRUE!

4. Please note that all these candlestick stuff is the derivative of price. All these indicators are the derivatives of either price or volume or time or any combination of these datas.

Yes Sir...Thank yo very much for reminding me that! i won't forget this in my whole life!!

5. Just ponder for a moment as to why exchanges all over the world are releasing only three types of data in realtime (i.e. price, volume and time)?

A cow will always give us milk only it is up to us what to do with it further!!

6. Last but not least, you cannot trade effectively on the basis of candlestick formations alone.

True! And also I won't be able to trade most effectively without candlesticks !

Thanks n regards
priyanvada

 

[priyanvada]

Remember it is not the number of winning trades that makes the difference, but the outwieghing of losses

The most important truth I have heard till now! Thanks for this!! God bless ...

 

[priyanvada]

If after going through these threads by Saint

Let me go through these threads then I will have my say ...

Anyway we should keep in mind that Saint whoever he may be is not an Ultimate master ... and should we take his words/methods (even though they work!) as Axiom...

I will call him a better reader of the data than us if he is performing consistently better than us ... Tomorrow RSI may grow up fast and overtake Saint in reading the tape!...

So for me it is a question of capacity of a person ... I will always chose to grow on my own understanding rather than using Saint or anybody's methods blindly all the time and become a billionaire ...

So for me profit is not the criteria at all ...

For me ability is the ultimate criteria!

... Nothing values better for me than "ability increment" ... So i would always be open to anything which helps me in that direction ... My losses will help me ... my profits will help me ... your guidance will help me ... Saints guidance will help me ... And at last my own urge to know the science will help me...

Wow! i can write very nice things when I start to flow!

Anyway thanks for your suggestion ... let me go through them!

regards,
priyanvada

 

[RSI]

Dear RSI,


Just treat priyanvada as a hopeless case!

I am not treating you as a hopeless case. On the contrary, you can improve a lot. You have that eye sight to concentrate on right things. That is why I responded in this thread.

And also do you claim that if I provide you only price time and volume then you would take better than decisions than someone of your experience who is candlestick reader and who uses all those indicators like a king uses spy messengers in a war for his own advantage?!

...do you claim that you would perform better in above scenario, because you have unlearned the so called Junk, and mastered the basics....

Price, time and volume data alone is needed to take decision. Without learning basics, learning to create a derivative of basic, I think is not a wise method. Once you learn and master the basics, you will realise that its derivatives (indicators) are unnecessary and infact they are hindrance to your decision making process. You will miss many good least risk entries, if you wait for MACD to cross zero line or RSI to turn above 30. Similarly you will leave a lot on table if you rely on indicators for putting up a trade.

In no way I want to fight you with you because you will always defeat me since you have seen more monsoon than me with open eyes... but I am just fighting for the "advanced weapons" which right now I guess would always be handy if used in addition to basics...

I never fought with any one until today. Fighting is a very bad habit. More so fighting with the market. Remember, whatever may be the method, whatever may be the indicator there is no such thing as 100% sure shot winning trade. You must learn to adjust to market conditions as quickly as possible. Remember this point very well. There is no point in arguing with market or market conditions. If the market is telling that the trade you have put is wrong, accept it and get out with least loss.

But man based on that derivative many ones are making their living...So whats wrong about them?...

Nothing wrong with any method which keeps one profitable in the long run. Take this hypothetical scenario and anwer these questions to yourself, you need not post the answers here. Questions are

In which case will you be satisfied assuming a hypothetical case of Stock XYZ moving up from Rs. 100/- to Rs. 200/-

(a) Trader A enters it at Rs. 103 to Rs. 105 with stop loss at Rs. 99/- and exits at Rs. 190/- (either in stages or at one lot, let us not make too much complication here) with help of price, volume and time data.

(b) Trader B enters the same trade at Rs. 120/- (because MACD crosses zero line only at that point) with stop loss at Rs. 99/- and exits at Rs. 175/- (because MACD turns down only after price moves all the way down from Rs.200/- to Rs. 175/-)

 

[prasadam]

Hello priyanvada,


Actually you started off well with your observation of candle sticks and their limitations and have suggested something to improve their efficiency. fine. really you have a thinking brain. and we all appreciate it.

But, here RSI is suggesting that first try to understand the price action and effect of volume on it. because we are trading price only and nothing else.
what is wrong it? he is 100% correct.

just dig into the vast no. of posts lying idle in traderji's server. you can observe at once how great participants / gurus ( except a few) of this forum started off with various indicators, occilators, MP's Cycles, and what not
and ask them now, you will be surprised to know that almost all of them are basing their trading decisions on price alone no indicators nothing. That is the holy grail.

please take RSI's suggestions seriously. he didn't mean to put you down. he tried to put you on correct path.


cheers.

prasad.

 

[priyanvada]

I am yet to learn MACD but if this is the case all the time ... then i am going to lose my interest in those things ... So thanks for warning me in advance ...

.... you are an experienced one in this field ...So I ask you don't these indicators tell us of something coming?

... For day trading your method of watching out the price volume and time makes sense to me ... but if i am a short term investor then I think one should use the tools...

If I see "hammer"... doesn't it suggest me to get in the next day after watching the opening price and confirming the science/art... Or how you decide that by just looking chart that this a bottom? What is your method of seeing trend reversal...?

regards,
priyanvada

 

[RSI]

So I ask you don't these indicators tell us of something coming?

They will tell you that "something coming" only after it has arrived and everyone else in the room has noticed it and entered the trade long before the person who is entering the trade on the basis of indicator stated so.

If I see "hammer"... doesn't it suggest me to get in the next day after watching the opening price and confirming the science/art... Or how you decide that by just looking chart that this a bottom? What is your method of seeing trend reversal...?

Look at as many charts as possible. You will notice that there are ample evidence wherein price has just gone down after taking out the high of the hammer candle.

Trend will reverse when demand overcomes supply or supply overcomes the demand as the case may be.