What is the “edge” you have in the markets?

#11
Re: What is the edge you have in the markets?

First for short term traders-Do you know whom you are competing with? You are competing with quant focussed hedge funds who only hire PHDs in Nuclear Physics,Maths etc. And most of their trading is algorithmic and automated,which means by the time you decide to buy/sell,the computers might have already decided something which is going to go against you!They have got all the money, resources and talent to suck money out of the market.
And most of this entire model of algorithm trading is based upon a few hypotheses (Which markets do not seem to hold in high esteem):-

1. Efficient Markets (Then Why these folks are wasting their time in markets).

2. Continuous Markets (O Really!).

3. Mean Reverseion (An offshoot of Bell Curve Theory, Then why forget and fight the fat tails). - Most of their losses come from fighting/ignoring this FAT Tail. Remember Nobel Prize winners' LTCM/victor niederhoffer?

4. Smoothed Equity Curve means less risk. (Is it so or it means ignoring the risks one can not factor about)? Victor Niederhoffer had a 4 star risk adjusted return from ITR (very low risk) just before his 1997 debacle in Asian Markets.
 

jdm

Well-Known Member
#12
sage,

to cut thing short, see the tv series "BBC Horizon - The Midas Formula" - order your copy at bbc or search the torrents most probably you will get a copy. see, and you wont talk about quant or hedge anymore or the phds in nuclear physics or whatever.

cheers....
 
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hari09omkar

Guest
#13
Re: What is the edge you have in the markets?

Very interesting & profound discussion going on here... may I seek the experts opinion on how do you define "market structure".. TQ very much in advance for your advice...

I am unable to understand the point of difference between 2 very insight full Post.


Until one understands the Conceptual part,how can he/she Design.
Dear
Asish da and jch,
u can see that what surya is saying is not something that I deny.Infact to have an edge by way of a trading system is good.But my point is how far that good will remain is decided by the basis of the assumptions of the maker of the system.
I have nothing against quantitative finance aka financial mathematics aka financial engineering.But the euphoria about the hedge funds is hollow.
Why a person can't make a trading system without understanding of markets? Hundreds of the people are doing so.Bcz to build a system,or design it,u need to know the software language,few hours and a computer and a few book on the subject.But that's not enough.
Not that everybody is earning from the markets now is a big genius of market structure.They need not to be always.Like a trend following system.But when it will show u the draw-down of 30% of ur equity after one month,how many will wait to retain the 3 out of 10 holdings to cover all the losses(the other 7 stopped)? It may happen often frequently,bcz the truth is markets are not trending 75% of the time.
Take simple example:
Market is a place to buy n sell.Buys more should make the price higher(?),sells more should make it lower,by common man's rules.Watch Satyam at 17th and 24th of December.These are based on raw market data.17th,more buys,price declined.24th more sells,prices rocked high.Pretty good systems may be built on taking buy-sell data,but sustainabilty will be the question,specially on the drawdown times.We have to go to the 'why' of many different things like this.Systems (the 'what' in discussion) with greater sustainability with low drawdown percentages can be built then.
A trader who understands the reason of the system's drawdown,will be psychologically relaxed and will not quit his system,one after another.This will be the edge of him over others.
Thanks
 

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hari09omkar

Guest
#14
On an average mnth I loose 17% of my profits on slippage alone... in Feb i lost as much 55%. All this helluva slippage is being caused by automated executions... where a second delay in hitting the orders may let u miss ur trade.
Dear trader111,
u r losing 17% of profits due to slippage?? Why don't u try Ninjatrader?
I read it in a book where the trader-author wrote that he was using it for automated order executions and the cancellations.Ignore the post if already used it.
http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/futures_trading_platform_solutions_automatedtrading.htm
 
U

uasish

Guest
#15
hari09omkar,

Yes,that is why i cant find the difference of opinion with Sagecapital.Both views are directed to earn more Profit by a pre-defined Methodology.The little i have known about you,there is no inhibation in you then what is the difference of opinion.Sorry if i have missed anything.
Asish
 
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hari09omkar

Guest
#16
Re: What is the edge you have in the markets?

hari09omkar,

Yes,that is why i cant find the difference of opinion with Sagecapital.Both views are directed to earn more Profit by a pre-defined Methodology.The little i have known about you,there is no inhibation in you then what is the difference of opinion.Sorry if i have missed anything.
Asish
The difference is I give more importance to the reasons or tenets on which a methodolgy is built,instead of focusing on the outcome of the system stats,because that way a trader can win in making a living for n number of years to come,by making more powerful systems.A profitable system can be built on wrong assumptions,like I sited as buy-sell data in previous post,but on draw down days it can hit the psychology of the trader and make insane decisions,bcz he is in dark of the reasons why it happened.The reason may be prolonged bull run/bear run/stagnated market.Another easy to understand difference between a strategy and a reasoning-based strategy:
There are many complicated option strategies available, and many people spend hundreds of hours looking for the perfect strategies to generate "guaranteed income." Most of these strategies work great when the markets are range-bound--which they are most of the time. Then along comes the inevitable big rally or watershed decline and all these people get hosed. For a period of years in the mid- 1990s, a lot of traders and funds made a nice living selling naked puts. These are put options whose writers do not have a short position in the stock on which he or she has written the put. The goal here is that the options expire worthless, and the put writers collect the premium. Many books started popping up on the shelves about "taxi-driver millionaires" who discovered this "amazing get rich quick" trading strategy. Then along came October 27. 1997.
The markets had been drifting down through October, and many of the taxi drivers, as well as several large funds with a few hundred million in assets, were busy selling naked puts.
The brokers who worked with the funds started getting nervous because the positions had gone against the funds to the point where it wouldn't take much of a further decline to start forcing margin calls. The brokers, who didn't quite understand the strategy being used by the funds, started to place discreet calls to other traders asking what would happen "if the Dow dropped a couple of hundred points" over the next week or so. The answer was easy--these funds would be forced to dump their positions because of margin calls, and this would create tremendous downward selling pressure in the overall markets. The S&P 500 floor traders at the CME got wind of this and started prepping for the slaughter.
On October 16, 1997, the Dow broke through its most recent uptrend line.... The Dow then rallied and closed at 8034.65 on October 22, just below its broken trendline..... This is a common occurrence in all markets-once a trendline is broken, the markets will come up and test it last time before rolling over. I call it, "kissing the trendline goodbye." On October 24,....., the Dow closed at 7715.41, down 319.24 points. This started the round of forced margin calls after the close, which was on a Friday.The margin call selling would take place on Monday. The Dow opened Monday at 7633.14, down 82.27. Then the forced selling via the margin calls began-- and the S&P pit traders, who knew what was happening, simply stepped back and walked away from the bids. With no support in the markets, the Dow dropped quickly and closed at 7161.39, down 554.02 points on the day..... By the time the closing bell rang on Monday, everyone who was selling naked puts for a living had lost a substantial amount of money. The funds that were involved not only lost all the money under their management; they ended up owing money to the brokers. Well, more correctly, the people who had invested in the fund lost all their money, and ended up owing more than they had put into the fund.
-John Carter
 
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uasish

Guest
#17
OK . Now i got you,the Outcome & the Stats ,does not necessarily be a True Guide,many of the times.
 

SGM

Active Member
#18
Re: What is the edge you have in the markets?

Hello Hari

Agree with you on most of the stuff you wrote

I have a quote copied from one of the boards, by a guy named acrary, just pasting it here

All systems are based on finding and pulling a fundamental truth about the market. Define what fundamental truth you'll be going after.

Now you've got the definition that most technical-based hedge funds are derived from.
For an options writer the fundamental truth can be about the BS formula or for a delta neutral hedger it could be about volatility cycle.

Usually for the retail (or should we say small cap guy like me) it is a very basic premise.

Premise: Markets have a tendency to trend beyond random.

The edge would comes from

In the case of a trend tendency it could be when does the trend tendency begin beyond random?

This will lead you to how do I measure a trend?

Since trends can occur randomly, how do I determine if a trend is beyond a confidence level of randomness?

Does the trending tendency beyond random exhibit the same degree of persistence beyond your chosen time frame?

If not, is there some point at which the persistence beyond random occurs every year?

If so, does it also persist at the same frequency for 5, 10, 50 different markets?

If so, you've discovered a fundamental truth and you now understand what you need to know about the behavior.
BTW, I have not found my edge yet, but not stopped looking either

Regards
Sanjay
 
#20
Re: What is the edge you have in the markets?

I am unable to understand the point of difference between 2 very insight full Post.


Until one understands the Conceptual part,how can he/she Design.

Quants are vulnerable,like all of us,that does not deter me for my Quest rather gives me more impetus to Excell.


http://www.traderji.com/112869-post1.html
there is a difference between understanding conceptual part and execution of orders. the quants are vulnerable but then all market parcticipants are vulnerable.


And most of this entire model of algorithm trading is based upon a few hypotheses (Which markets do not seem to hold in high esteem):-

1. Efficient Markets (Then Why these folks are wasting their time in markets).

2. Continuous Markets (O Really!).

3. Mean Reverseion (An offshoot of Bell Curve Theory, Then why forget and fight the fat tails). - Most of their losses come from fighting/ignoring this FAT Tail. Remember Nobel Prize winners' LTCM/victor niederhoffer?

4. Smoothed Equity Curve means less risk. (Is it so or it means ignoring the risks one can not factor about)? Victor Niederhoffer had a 4 star risk adjusted return from ITR (very low risk) just before his 1997 debacle in Asian Markets.
intraday trades are basically of two types:
1. trading on commonalities
2. trading on outliers

The US equity markets are evolving very fast since the last 8 mnths or so. It started in august. that is when discretionary traders made big bucks as we were better able to handle the outliers.

they have there NNs to adapt to the markets much quickly and that is why most daytraders have been blown out in the last 3 mnths.
 

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