1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[mastermind007]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Yes theoretically it is possible.

Theory does not make profits. Practicals Do!!!

So what is the Principle behind this strategy?
1. NIFTY is Trending only 20-25% of the time and so why always take 20 points Stoploss when 80% of the time you are going to loose.
Why not take 7-10 points loss and close the trade if stoploss hit.

Keeping tighter stop losses is ok-ok way to prevent trade losses

2. 20-25% of the time when the market is trending, NIFTY never crosses the opening price by more than 10 points. So in those cases NIFTY
always gives on an average 55 points on the LONG side and 77 points on the SHORT Side.

If this is true, you can SL @ Open and trail it maintaining decent two-car distance, so there is no reason for Point 1.

3. 80-20 Principle. 80% of the losses comes from 20% of the trades and so 80% profit can come from 20% of the trades.

Logical Flaw. Inverse of "80% of losses may come from 20% of trades" is not "80% profit can come from 20% of the trades". Besides
this rule totally contradicts rule 1.

4. Why do we need to spend hours before the monitor, while we can spend maximum 30 minutes a day. (15 minutes during opening and 15 minutes during closing)

:clap::clap::clap:
This I totally agree. Watching Red and Green is tough..... I set up trades and play online Chess to keep my mind off the trades.

....

Also attaching back tested result for the SBIN stock. SBIN unlike NIFTY falls in the 50:50 category. ie 50% of time is trending and 50%
it is Rangebound. So it is one of the highly Trending stock. The Parameters are different for SBIN. For eg... your stoploss should be
around 1% in SBIN where as for NIFTY your stoploss should not be more than 0.2%.

This is actually interesting point. I ran some tests to find optimal param values on SBIN and it was a tough scrip to work with. Another
wild one is ACC, but ACC parameters can be caliberated.

Attaching the excel sheet with the backtested results with the data of last two years for NIFTY.

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Not visible.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

NIFTY For Today
There is FLAG formation in NIFTY 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 5760. Buy above 5782.

SBIN for today
There is SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE formation in SBIN 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 2240. Buy above 2265.

All levels are in FUTURES

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

NIFTY For Today
There is FLAG formation in NIFTY 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 5760. Buy above 5782.

SBIN for today
There is SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE formation in SBIN 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 2240. Buy above 2265.

All levels are in FUTURES

Very Volatile Wait for the SBI result and take your positions

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

NIFTY For Today
There is FLAG formation in NIFTY 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 5760. Buy above 5782.

SBIN for today
There is SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE formation in SBIN 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 2240. Buy above 2265.

All levels are in FUTURES

I don't know how many took those positions. It was so incredible seeing those SBIN prices coming down like a Nuclear bomb... I somebody has taken the LONG trade then he / she is GONE...

 

[prabhsingh]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

NIFTY For Today
There is FLAG formation in NIFTY 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 5760. Buy above 5782.

SBIN for today
There is SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE formation in SBIN 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 2240. Buy above 2265.

All levels are in FUTURES

Kindly can you post Symmetric triangle charts for SBIN please.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

NIFTY For Today
There is FLAG formation in NIFTY 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 5760. Buy above 5782.

SBIN for today
There is SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE formation in SBIN 10-15 min Charts. So wait for the breakout. Sell below 2240. Buy above 2265.

All levels are in FUTURES

Symmetric Triangle for SBIN as requested by Prabhsingh. I have taken it from the 30 minute timeframe.

 

[johnnypareek]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi,

Can u pleasr comments on tatamotors

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi,

Can u pleasr comments on tatamotors

TATAMOTORS

Please find below the Daily and the Hourly charts for TATA MOTORS (SPOT).

From the Daily charts you can see that this Rally started at 205. 245 was the Half way (50%) and 285 seems to be the 100% (Totally 80 points from 205). The Wide range bar at the end of the rally normally suggests that it is an exhaustion bar (The rally is exhausted and somebody is in hurry to close their positions).

Looking at the Hourly chart you can see a channel or a slightly descending Triangle. Descending Triangle is mostly bearish....

So my opinion would be to go SHORT below 275-278 and GO Long above 288-290.

The Wedge also suggests that if it is a Fall, it would Fall Sharply. The major support would be around the half way mark of 245.

So need to close 50% around 260-265 and the rest around 240-245.

TITAN is also more or less similar to TATAMOTORS with the same levels

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

TITAN ANALYSIS

Please find below the hourly chart for TITAN.

Call is to Buy above 297 and sell below 291. Short is now active. You can add more below 287.

Looking at the daily charts, this rally started at 205 in Jun-12. So the half way mark would be 250.

There is also WRB in TITAN on 01-Nov-12 suggesting the end of this rally...

Here Remember that the Foriegn Instituitional Investers actually book their profits in last two months of the year. So they will try to look for opportunities to Sell , Like they did for SBIN today.

FIIs either do a fresh buying in Dec-12 and Sell in Jan-12 OR they sell in Nov-Dec-12 and Buy in Jan-12 like they did in the beginning of this year...

So all I am saying is be cautious when you GO LONG and instead look for opportunities to GO SHORT. The beauty with the SHORTing opportunites is that they move quickly unlike the LONG positions and so you can make some quick profits..

 

[prabhsingh]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Raj,

My observation for Titan has been that its Volumes are always muted.They are so low that many times it becomes very difficult to take position on Titan so one has to be extra careful on Titan.I am not saying it wont behave as you stated but just be extra cautious on it.Also what i have been observing with Titan is that the decline does not stay for quite long and every decline is taken as an opporunity to go Long.