1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

My view on NIFTY for Short to Medium term (2 to 4 months) .

Please find below the NIFTY Weekly chart covering Sep-10 to Nov-12. You can see that the market is tracing a pattern

6300 - 5800 - 500 points
5800 - 6200 - 400 points
6200 - 5200 - 1000 points
5200 - 5800 - 600 points
5800 - 4800 - 1000 points
4800 - 5400 - 600 points
5400 - 4600 - 800 points
4600 - 5600 - 1000 points
5600 - 4800 - 800 points
4800 - 5800 - 1000 points

Now from 5800 - My guess would be to go back to 5300/5200 - 500-600 points - This might happen in Nov-Dec-12. And the market might trace back to 6200/6300 - 1000 points bull run...

So those who are looking to enter the market in the right time, look for market to take U turn around 5200/5300 and as per this pattern it should surely touch 6200/6300.... This would be the last 1000 points opportunity. After reaching 6300 market might go into sideways or trace back to 5300 depending on the market conditions but going beyond 6300 is little difficult....

So do look for this golden opportunity and do not miss this opportunity. People with less money can also try the Options route..

In summary there two things -
From here the market will go down to 5300
And 5300 market might goto 6300

NIFTY Weekly chart

Simplified view Chart

 

[ambarish123]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

dude i cant c charts in excel

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

DOW Jones Weekly Chart

Looking at the Weekly Chart of DJIA, more downside can be expected in US markets, Dow Jones might test the lows of 12400 and might bounce back...

So accordingly my prediction for NIFTY would be, By November closing you can expect a major sell Off in NIFTY to the levels of 5200-5300 and then you might see a quick rally till 6200-6300 in December.

So get ready for a Wonderful Christmas Ride....

So follow the World indices like Dow Jones to confirm the NIFTY Trend...

 

[sudoku1]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

@Healthraj..u mean 2 say a crack of abt 500 nifty points in dis fortnight & den a rise of 1000 points in folowing 2 fortnigts ?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

@Healthraj..u mean 2 say a crack of abt 500 nifty points in dis fortnight & den a rise of 1000 points in folowing 2 fortnigts ?

Anything is possible in any timeframe... All I am saying is to watch for the Key Levels of 5200-5300 for People who want to Go Long...
Whether it happens in 2 weeks or 2 months - I cannot predict.
I have just put my view based on the chart patterns.
We have to connect all the dots like Europe crisis, US QE3 and see what best is possible.

That is the reason why Stock markets is called "Global markets". So from time to time need to take a Global view also for trading.

As usual any critical comments are always welcome... End of the day it is just my view...

Here to add, in the Indian markets, if 5600 Nifty spot is broken, then you can expect the market to correct further... So the day is not far away looking at the Global markets.

For the coming days if 5680 NIFTY Futures is broken strongly, then you can expect 5580

 

[philosuffer]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Excellent analysis Raj. I totally agree with your conclusion. I did the same analysis on S&P 500 in US market and it showing strong support level at around 136 and would bounce from there.

In summary there two things -
From here the market will go down to 5300
And 5300 market might goto 6300

 

[philosuffer]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

On a volatile day like today, no tool will be able to work.

Raj, I commend your intelligence and effort in trying to build a system that works.

Remember, a system built for masses is never going to do as well as an expert trading doing custom trades based on manual analysis. This is because, the factors influencing markets are so diverse and complex, and it is almost impossible to factor all of them into an algorithm.

Human brain is so capable, and an expert trader with intelligence and experience would have developed natural algorithms in brain that outperform computer algos.

Regardless, I do think systems built by people like you could help average traders in making decent size profits. However, it does take a lot of time and effort to incorporate at least the major variables into the signal generators. We have so many technical indicators like MACD, RSI, Moving Averages that give signals. What matters the most is, the executioner. A human with control over emotions and executes based on conditions at the moment.

All the best and keep up the good work.

 

[philosuffer]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Ooops, I was wrong with the prediction of a bounce at 136 on SPY. Today, US markets lost 180 points and broke through the support level at 136. There may be a small bounce in a day or two but I dont count on a rally, new lows are coming, the trend is down and better to avoid the long side.

Excellent analysis Raj. I totally agree with your conclusion. I did the same analysis on S&P 500 in US market and it showing strong support level at around 136 and would bounce from there.

In summary there two things -
From here the market will go down to 5300
And 5300 market might goto 6300

 

[ashokram1]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Please post your idea in the thread so that others also can validate and give their suggestions

Hi raj,
thank you.. my suggestion would be

1. candlestick reversal pattern - 3 day reversal - Eod scan
2. five day breakout system using High and Low for intraday
3. modified Stop and reverse for EOD

I could not make these in excel sheet myself , because iam not expert in programming.

kindly help

pm me ur email id .. i will send email
thank you

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

NIFTY Trading today - Trading the Inverted W in an downtrend.

I am not sure how many of you have account in "NIFTY LOVERS" group in Facebook. I (My id is Raj Finance) had posted the NIFTY call to SELL NIFTY at 5655 for target of 5580. It was possible due to Inverted W formation in NIFTY 30 minute charts... I think it is called Wolf wave. Do not know the technical name...

In summary in downtrend market if you see a Inverted W formation then expect strong SELL Off... For that you will have to look at the 30 minute charts.

If you are confident you can actually trade the four legs. Otherwise just trade the last leg... Which would be fase and quick. Today 80 points made in less than 1.5 hours

In the UP Trend it would be the opposite... Those who want to Trade Options it would be a very good strategy. Today I bought NIFTY PUT 5600 at 78 and squared off at 135. 57 points gain....

So end of the Day - One Manthra - Look for Chart Patterns, Patterns...

My Rule #1 these days - If no Pattern - No trade