1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

will you not consider July OI data for days like today! I always find very difficult to interpret OI table but recently your posts making me understanding it better. Thanks for the same!
Also I read somewhere, OI table many times throws wrong direction to trap traders, is it true?

Yes True. That is why you should look at volume. But in both cases when there is a High volume in say 5600 PE, then the BULLS are selling PE, to take the market High. Big fellows can only Sell. They cannot buy because they are the market makers. Market makers buy Low and Sell high. So important rule, when there is high OI interest in CE, then the market will come down. When there is a High OI in PE, then market will go up.


But today since it is the last day of Expiry, it could be tricky. So let me look at the July Series

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Yes True. That is why you should look at volume. But in both cases when there is a High volume in say 5600 PE, then the BULLS are selling PE, to take the market High. Big fellows can only Sell. They cannot buy because they are the market makers. Market makers buy Low and Sell high. So important rule, when there is high OI interest in CE, then the market will come down. When there is a High OI in PE, then market will go up.


But today since it is the last day of Expiry, it could be tricky. So let me look at the July Series

Looking at the July Series, does not give any Meaningful info.

MAX CE Vol @ 5700 - 33K
MAX PE Vol @ 5600 - 33K

MAX CE OI @ 5700 - 248K
MAX PE OI @ 5100 - 535K

CHG in OI
CE Plus 680K
PE Plus 20L

In Jun Series,

MAX CE Vol Shifted from 5600 to 5700. So the expiry is confirmed to be between 5600 and 5700. More close to 5700 Right now - Meaning above 5650.

OI Change in PE reached 44L - So Bulls are shorting PE to take the market higher. So we might see a sudden jump in the UPwards direction. To my mind we should exit Shorts now

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The BEARS are utilising every rise in the market to SHORT. So better not to trade today

 

[dineshN]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Already committed! Running for cover now

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Google Finance Data problem

I am not getting the Real time Google Finance data for today (only today's data is missing). Is anyone facing similar issues?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Already committed! Running for cover now

If you are LONG, You can keep NIFTY Futures Yesterday High as the Stoploss 5630. If it goes below close the positions. Otherwise you can expect a bounce back at 5625-5630.

 

[prabhsingh]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Raj,

Change in OI of 5100 Put for July series is around 8.3L.Is this some sort of alarming bell?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Raj,

Change in OI of 5100 Put for July series is around 8.3L.Is this some sort of alarming bell?

When the market was going down, 5100 PE would have created some interest and the premium would have been built. With the Option build up it seems more a UP market in July. So they are selling the PUT. Do not think market will anyway touch 5100

 

[dineshN]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5700CE OI is continuously moving up and very little adding in 5700PE OI. Seems more of a downside still to be seen?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5700CE OI is continuously moving up and very little adding in 5700PE OI. Seems more of a downside still to be seen?

OI is highest in 5600 PE and 5700 PE. Each around 99 Lakhs. You can't expect more than that.

If you look at 5600 CE the change in OI changed by -20L, which means BULLs have squared and gone Long. In 5700 CE, the change in OI is 17L, which indicates even if the market makes high, there is still some correction left.

The OI in 5700 CE is at the highest around 1.3 Crore. So Yes definitely there is some Downside correction left after the market moves UP