1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[guptak03]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

brilliant sir:thumb: mkt started to move upwards after your post ....

 

[dineshN]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

you were spot on! Got exit from my CEs. Covered losses, should have made decent profit but suffering from DOWN(trend)syndrom!!!!!!

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Max Volume in CE has changed from 5600 to 5700. This could be indication of reversal. Meaning now they are selling 5700 CE

Max OI in CE has changed from 5700 to 5800. So another sign of Reversal. Now they are selling 5800 CE

so let us also do what they do... Sell 5700 CE and 5800 CE

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

27-Jun-13.

Max CE Vol @ 5600
Max PE Vol @ 5600

Max CE OI @ 5800
Max PE OI @ 5600

OI CHG 5800 CE @ Minus 704K
OI CHG 5600 PE @ Plus 30 L

So the Bulls are heavily shorting 5600 PE to take the markets higher.
So no chance of going below 5600.

The Initial range according to my calculation is 5619 - 5675.

So you can go short @ 5675 or Long @ 5620.

In the morning I had given the Range as 5620 to 5675. Market made low of 5627 and high of 5683.

After Reaching High if 5683, made a Pivot low of 5665. So Trade based on Flow... If below 5665, Sell.

From 5627, 5687 (Meaning 60 points for the Bulls) is the TOP. So If sustain and goes beyond 5690, HOLD long otherwise you can sell around 5690

 

[guptak03]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

exited my 5700 ce short ....mkt zoomed

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

27-Jun-13.

Max CE Vol @ 5600
Max PE Vol @ 5600

Max CE OI @ 5800
Max PE OI @ 5600

OI CHG 5800 CE @ Minus 704K
OI CHG 5600 PE @ Plus 30 L

So the Bulls are heavily shorting 5600 PE to take the markets higher.
So no chance of going below 5600.

The Initial range according to my calculation is 5619 - 5675.

So you can go short @ 5675 or Long @ 5620.

Max CE OI @ changed from 5800 to 5700 - Which is a confirmation that market will first touch the low before going up or it might be signal for Reversal from downside to upside

In the last one hour the Open interest for PE has changed to Plus 36L (As I said before The operators use the Options to Hedge. So The data should be taken purely on a sell side. So 36L PE are being sold compared to Minus 570K in CE. Those who want to Go long, can go long above Yesterday's High Range of 5641, if it sustains

Looking at the July Series, does not give any Meaningful info.

MAX CE Vol @ 5700 - 33K
MAX PE Vol @ 5600 - 33K

MAX CE OI @ 5700 - 248K
MAX PE OI @ 5100 - 535K

CHG in OI
CE Plus 680K
PE Plus 20L

In Jun Series,

MAX CE Vol Shifted from 5600 to 5700. So the expiry is confirmed to be between 5600 and 5700. More close to 5700 Right now - Meaning above 5650.

OI Change in PE reached 44L - So Bulls are shorting PE to take the market higher. So we might see a sudden jump in the UPwards direction. To my mind we should exit Shorts now

The BEARS are utilising every rise in the market to SHORT. So better not to trade today

If you are LONG, You can keep NIFTY Futures Yesterday High as the Stoploss 5630. If it goes below close the positions. Otherwise you can expect a bounce back at 5625-5630.

When the market was going down, 5100 PE would have created some interest and the premium would have been built. With the Option build up it seems more a UP market in July. So they are selling the PUT. Do not think market will anyway touch 5100

OI is highest in 5600 PE and 5700 PE. Each around 99 Lakhs. You can't expect more than that.

If you look at 5600 CE the change in OI changed by -20L, which means BULLs have squared and gone Long. In 5700 CE, the change in OI is 17L, which indicates even if the market makes high, there is still some correction left.

The OI in 5700 CE is at the highest around 1.3 Crore. So Yes definitely there is some Downside correction left after the market moves UP

Max Volume in CE has changed from 5600 to 5700. This could be indication of reversal. Meaning now they are selling 5700 CE

Max OI in CE has changed from 5700 to 5800. So another sign of Reversal. Now they are selling 5800 CE

so let us also do what they do... Sell 5700 CE and 5800 CE

In the morning I had given the Range as 5620 to 5675. Market made low of 5627 and high of 5683.

After Reaching High if 5683, made a Pivot low of 5665. So Trade based on Flow... If below 5665, Sell.

From 5627, 5687 (Meaning 60 points for the Bulls) is the TOP. So If sustain and goes beyond 5690, HOLD long otherwise you can sell around 5690

So today's expiry was well covered with Range, Signals and Reversal.

So my feeling is that the combination of Volume, OI and Change in OI works to take some decisions on the Range, Direction and the Reversal.

Let me also cover some Stocks so that we will get a Good view on How this OptionsChain works...

I am not seeing any comments or suggestions from the Option Experts...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Simple Option Strategy based on MAX OI in CE and PE

This strategy is not for Intraday. People who want to wait and Trade for atleast 2-3 days can try this Strategy.

For taking positions it is better to take at the end of the day so that we would also gain some points due to Time erosion

At EOD,

Find out the Strike Price where CE OI is Maximum.
Find Out the Strike Price where PE OI is Maximum.

In Jul-13 Series, For example the
MAX CE is at 6000 and MAX PE is at 5600.

Sell 1 lot of 6000 CE - LTP is 13.8
Sell 1 lot of 5600 PE - LTP is 78.6
Combined premium of 92.4.

If Market moves UP, this could give good result.

Why Choose to Sell ?,
The basic assumption is that when the OI or Volume is High in a particular Strike price, then that means the Operators are Selling. When the Operators are selling they normally would expect the pricess to go down.

So the next question, Why would not the Operators Buy, Options?
The Operators are there to Create the market and So they need to sell to create the market and for them buying is squaring of their positions. They are not really buying...

What is the Stop loss ?
Take positions when the market is atleast 50-75 points away from either of the Strike price. In our case market closed at 5682, 82 points away from 5600. Close the poistions if 5600 is brken on the downside or 6000 is broken on the upside.

I am just exploring options and just my view. Please do your homework before you put your trade. When you are going for a combined premium strategy. Go for a minimum combined premium of 90+

The Same Strategy could be applied looking at the MAX Volume (This is for Intraday)

If the MAX Volume is at the Same strike price, then Sell PE and CE at the strike price. Fro example in the morning the Max volume was at 5600 when the Market was going up and Down, So at that time Sell 5600 CE and 5600 PE. When to Exit When the Strike Price changes... When the market moves UP the MAX CE would up to the Next strike Price ie 5700... OR PE changes to 5500 if market went down... Today at around 10:40 AM, Max volume changed hands from 5600CE changes to 5700CE, At that time Close 5600 CE SELL and Buy 5600 CE. (Not Sell 5700 CE right now).

At 10:40 AM, Market made the low 5640 (Of course it also made a low of 5631 after that).

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Simple Option Strategy based on MAX OI in CE and PE

At EOD,

Find out the Strike Price where CE OI is Maximum.
Find Out the Strike Price where PE OI is Maximum.

In Jul-13 Series, For example the
MAX CE is at 6000 and MAX PE is at 5600.

Sell 1 lot of 6000 CE - LTP is 13.8
Sell 1 lot of 5600 PE - LTP is 78.6
Combined premium of 92.4.

In the above example if People had taken, today the combined price is at 80. 12.4 points profit. Try the same around 3:15 PM based on the levels. It works even better if you take during the week end.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The Same Strategy could be applied looking at the MAX Volume (This is for Intraday)[/B]

If the MAX Volume is at the Same strike price, then Sell PE and CE at the strike price. Fro example in the morning the Max volume was at 5600 when the Market was going up and Down, So at that time Sell 5600 CE and 5600 PE. When to Exit When the Strike Price changes... When the market moves UP the MAX CE would up to the Next strike Price ie 5700... OR PE changes to 5500 if market went down... Today at around 10:40 AM, Max volume changed hands from 5600CE changes to 5700CE, At that time Close 5600 CE SELL and Buy 5600 CE. (Not Sell 5700 CE right now).

At 10:40 AM, Market made the low 5640 (Of course it also made a low of 5631 after that).

28-Jun-13 - Intraday Options

At 9:40 AM

MAX CE Volume @ 5800 CE
MAX PE Volume @ 5700 PE

Range as per my calculation is 5684 to 5822. So Today 5822 might be the Top. So you can go Long around 5762 or Go short around 5822 (Playing for 60 points). The Long term range points 5600 to 6000 as told Yesterday.

For options Trading No Trading Yet... Look for a change in the Strike Price. Either 5800 CE should become 5900 CE. or 5700 PE should become 5600 PE.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

28-Jun-13 - Intraday Options

At 9:40 AM

MAX CE Volume @ 5800 CE
MAX PE Volume @ 5700 PE

Range as per my calculation is 5684 to 5822. So Today 5822 might be the Top. So you can go Long around 5762 or Go short around 5822 (Playing for 60 points). The Long term range points 5600 to 6000 as told Yesterday.

For options Trading No Trading Yet... Look for a change in the Strike Price. Either 5800 CE should become 5900 CE. or 5700 PE should become 5600 PE.

Forgot to notice that Today the Low was 5761.15 in NF. So you can go for the Intraday Options

Sell 1 Lot 5700 PE @ 78.75
Buy 1 Lot 5800 CE @ 97.2

Close the poistions at 5822 or Reverse your positions