1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[shrividhya srinivasan]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The Strategy.

It is not a Real positional method because I don't want to take the positions to the next day. It is also not Intraday because I am not going to sit the whole day for Trading. The above statement with the assumption that the backtested results of last two years data will work for future also

So coming to steps.
1. End of day, Take the OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close)
2. Calculate the 25 DAY EMA on the HIGH - We will Go LONG only above this Price
3. Calculate the 25 DAY EMA on the LOW - We will Go SHORT only below this Price
4. Calculate the 15 DAY EMA on the OHLC - We will use this to calculate the BUY/SELL signal
5. Calculate the 25 DAY EMA on the OHLC - We will use this to calculate the BUY/SELL signal
6. To Confirm the UP trend, there should be HIGHER HIGHs and HIGHER LOWs. For DOWNTREND it should be LOWER HIGHs and LOWER LOWs.
7. Using the above rule, we will get a BUY or SELL signal for 15DAY EMA and 25 DAY EMA. If we can use TOD for TODAY and PRE for PREVIOUS Day. Then we will get a BUY Signal if TOD_HIGH >= PRE_HIGH and TOD_OPEN >= PRE_OPEN and TOD_LOW >= PRE_LOW and TOD_CLOSE >= PRE_CLOSE
8. For a SELL Signal we have to check the LOWER LOWs and LOWER HIGHs.
9. We will get one signal for 15DAY EMA and another for 25DAY EMA.
10. If both are BUY then for tomorrow we will go LONG or if both are SELL then for tomorrow we will go LONG.
11. If both of them do not give any BUY/SELL signal then no trade for tomorrow.
12. If the signals are different then we will go with the 25DAY EMA Signal because we want to go with the Trend (so we use higher EMA value)
13. IF it is a LONG, then we will go LONG above the Price (Calculated in Step 2)
14. IF it is a SHORT, then we will SHORT below the Price (Calculated in Step 3.)
15. We will have to calculate the Stoploss Price so that the Win Ratio confirms with the Trend. For Example if NIFTY is trending only 25% of the time and 75% of the time it is Rangebound, then we will have to find a stoploss so that we will win the Trades only 25% of time. The value from my tool comes to around 7-10.
16. Once you open the trade around 9:15 AM to 9:30 AM after checking the opening price, then put a Stoploss trade and close the Trading Terminal.
17. At around 3:15 PM to 3:25 pm, you need to close the trade if Stoploss was not hit.
18. After market hours download the OHLC for today and continue the steps for tomorrow.

All the above steps and calculation have been done in the Excel tool. The only thing which needs to be done is daily add a row and update the OHLC manually and check the column W for LONG Signals and column AB for SHORT signals in the tool.

I have not actually used this system. So please use it if you feel confident and that you are convinced. I am planning to paper trade for some time before actually using it. Please share the tool and please don't sell this tool for money... It is supposed to distributed freely...

hi,

can u plz tell me how to calculate "15 day ema for low, high" or can v get it readymade somewhere ...... Regards

 

[shrividhya srinivasan]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Is it possible to make 652 lakhs in 497 Trading days with a starting capital of 1 lakh using NIFTY Futures.

Well theoretically it is possible.

So what is the Principle behind this strategy?

1. NIFTY is Trending only 20-25% of the time and so why always take 20 points Stoploss when 80% of the time you are going to loose. Why not take 7-10 points loss and close the trade if stoploss hit.
2. 20-25% of the time when the market is trending, NIFTY never crosses the opening price by more than 10 points. So in those cases NIFTY always gives on an average 55 points on the LONG side and 77 points on the SHORT Side.
3. 80-20 Principle. 80% of the losses comes from 20% of the trades and so 80% profit can come from 20% of the trades.
4. Why do we need to spend hours before the monitor, while we can spend maximum 30 minutes a day. (15 minutes during opening and 15 minutes during closing)

So let us say we do hundred trades.
75 trades with a loss of 10 points = 750 points loss
25 trades with a gain of 65 points = 1625 points gain
Net gain = 875 points in 100 trading days.
If you started trading with a capital of 1 lakh and 2% Risk, the profit would be Rs 1,75,000.
With pyramiding (reinvesting the profit ) it would turn to crores.

Attaching the excel sheet with the backtested results with the data of last two years for NIFTY.

Also attaching back tested result for the SBIN stock. SBIN unlike NIFTY falls in the 50:50 category. ie 50% of time is trending and 50% it is Rangebound. So it is one of the highly Trending stock. The Parameters are different for SBIN. For eg... your stoploss should be around 1% in SBIN where as for NIFTY your stoploss should not be more than 0.2%.

All the prices for SPOT

http://www.4shared.com/file/582KqrC8/Positional_Trading_-_NIFTY-Bac.html

http://www.4shared.com/file/CcpeHgKq/Positional_Trading_-_SBIN-Back.html

Will explain the strategy in detail in the next post.

Cud u plz. upload the file once again. error showing The uploaded file 'Positional Trading - NIFTY-Backtest Results.xlsm' is unavailable. This file was deleted.

Thnkx

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Cud u plz. upload the file once again. error showing The uploaded file 'Positional Trading - NIFTY-Backtest Results.xlsm' is unavailable. This file was deleted.

Thnkx

I think you can download the version 1.2 or 1.3. The previous versions are deleted on purpose

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

hi,

can u plz tell me how to calculate "15 day ema for low, high" or can v get it readymade somewhere ...... Regards

The formula is

=(Current High -Previous EMA15 High )*EMAFactor+ Current High

The EMA Factor is calculated as follows
2/(X+1), where X is the EMA, For EMA 15, X=15....

You can find the calculation in the tool.

 

[jsgrewal]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

nifty site mentioed in your post is showing 9th July data for nifty but for all others it is showing 30th July data correctly. But I am wondering how the same link is fetching correct data for some and wrong data for some others!

 

[aimer]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hello Raj,
Now the version 1.2 is not showing the current contract, but may and june contract gets displayed...plz help...sorry to bother u every now n then

 

[gurmy.]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Check if in the browser you are getting the August data

http://nseindia.com/content/fo/fomktwtch_FUTIDXNIFTY.htm

yes, in the browser it shows the data of august form the above link

 

[jsgrewal]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

it shows may, june and july data for me!

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I hope I have found the solution.... I will post the solution in next 30 minutes for those of you who are getting old futures data

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Please find below the link for Version 1.3A.

Fixes done

1. Before getting the Data from the Web, Clear the cache programatically because for some browser there is no option to get fresh data each time.
2. In Charts sometimes getting error because data is not fetched so on error it would resume... You can use the Refresh button to Retry
3. For 2003 versions, changed the file format to GIF

2007 version
http://www.4shared.com/zip/t9_JoeiR/2007-RAJ_NIFTY_Futures_Trading.html

2003 version
http://www.4shared.com/zip/8kQhXcXt/2003-RAJ_NIFTY_Futures_Trading.html

Happy Trading