1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Options Data @ 2:30 PM

Total CHG in OI - CE-25L, PE-37L - Favours BULLS

Total OI - CE - 3.3C, PE-4.1C - Again favouring BULL

So tomorrow we might once again see a Rally to 5900 levels.

Risky Players Can buy Naked 5800 CE.

Less Risky can trade the Pair -5700-6000 available now at 86. Take positions at the end of day Or at the bottom

The only real worry for Bulls is that 5900CE showing no signs of getting unwound. The bears are holding tight to this level. Also unwinding was seen in 5900,6000, 6100PE levels indicating weak bulls are getting out of the system. A rally even if coming might be short lived and be just a set up to trap the bulls

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

04-Jul-13 Option Analysis for NIFTY

MAX CGH in OI at
6100 CE @ 322K
5800 PE @ 334K
Total Change in OI @ CE 497K, PE @ 635K

You can see the first time positions being made at 6100 CE. That shows this rally would minimum test 6000.

OI Max at the same level as 5600-6000 - no change in the past 7 days
CE OI @ 3.18C PE OI @ 3.85C
Weekly Trend - UP

Pivot @ 5860 - This could be the High for today. Positional pivot at 5792 - Which could be the low for the day - Already the Low 5791.6 made. So you can Go long around 5792-5798

5600-6000 Pair today at 63.55

"You can see the first time positions being made at 6100 CE. That shows this rally would minimum test 6000"

Above could only be possible if there is maximum/equal participation from
PE side as well which currently is not happening.

At 10 AM, the MAX CHG in OI pair changed to 5800-5900. So hopefully today 5800 would be saved. But finding the bottom would be challenge. Right now it has moved from 5790 to 5786. We could keep our yesterday's pivot of 5775 as Stoploss for the LONG.

So right now the Intrday signal is a SELL and not a BUY...

This is the time to trade the options Pair - Yesterday asked to trade 5700-6000 Pair at 95. Today it is 86
Market would take some time to go UP. Positions need to be made. So I would better wait for 5700 PE Volume to UP before taking any Naked LONG positions

Those who have Gone LONG, Please hold your Longs and keep taking Regular profits as per your Risk plan. Market is in consolidation phase and would be spending some time around 5790-5810.

In the 5800-5900, MAX CHG in OI is at 5800 PE and so LONG confirmed now....

Any Good Rally need to make a double bottom at least in the Hourly charts. Accordingly Yesterday's support (5770) / Low would be tested again. So Trade with Caution on Longs above 5820-5830. Better to close the Long positions with 20 points profit and wait for the Correction. so right now If I have to qualify the LONG, it is mildly bullish and it is defintely not a Strong BULL now

Also all the key stocks need to participate. Right now the Banking Stocks are trying to find the bottom and Trading negative.

MAX CHG in OI changed to 5600-5900 Pair - Available at 92.45- Those who want to Trade the pair can go ahead now. Try to Sell so that you get the pair for around 95

Today we had so many pairs,

In the morning we had 5800-6100, Then we had 5800-5900, then it was 5600-5900 and now we have 5600-6100. So it clearly shows that positions are being added,

Anyways as I have been telling Yesterday, only 5700/5800 PE Huge positions would confirm this Rally... The CHG in OI is as follows

5600 PE - 570K
5700 PE - 522K
5800 PE - 562K

6100 CE - 569K
6000 CE - 75K ??
5900 CE - 520K
5800 CE - 413K

More or less FLAT to Mildly Bullish right now

Market made high of 5830. Close your LONG positions with 40 points profit. Those who want to Take risk can Go for SHORT now at 5830

Now we have 5700-6100 - My faourite of 5700 PE. If we have to believe that this is an UP Trend then 5700 PE should have the highest OI

04-Jul-13 Option Analysis for NIFTY @ 11:30 AM

MAX CGH in OI at
6100 CE @ 645K
5700 PE @ 670K
In the morning Total Change in OI @ CE 497K, PE @ 635K
Now it is Pe-15L, CE-27L


OI Max at the same level as 5600-6000 - no change in the past 7 days
In the moring - CE OI @ 3.18C PE OI @ 3.85C
Now at CE-3.2C, PE-4.05C

Those who went Short can close their positions now

Options Data @ 2:30 PM

Today as mentioned, Initially the positions were Flat and you saw because of that market making UP (60 points - we made 40 points) and Down (60 points - We made 40 points). So totally we made 80 points.

So it is important to make a note of the Options positions in the beginning of the day at around 10 AM to plan your trades.

Status at 2:30 PM

MAX CHG OI @ 5900 CE - 11L 5800PE - 10L (5800PE is quickly increasing in volume) - Right now Favours BEARS. but the BULLS are recovering. Already asked to close the Shorts

Total CHG in OI - CE-25L, PE-37L - Favours BULLS

Total OI - CE - 3.3C, PE-4.1C - Again favouring BULL

So tomorrow we might once again see a Rally to 5900 levels.

Risky Players Can buy Naked 5800 CE.

Less Risky can trade the Pair -5700-6000 available now at 86. Take positions at the end of day Or at the bottom

Today we had covered the Reversal step by step.
The double bottom made at 5780.
Made 80 points totally. Missed the 5830-5847, which was set as Trap for those who were LONG.

Key observations and Learnings:
In the morning we saw the MAX CHG in OI going all over the places and the CHG in every strike was almost 500K - Which if next time occurs you can confirm to be Flat market and play on both the sides.
Any good Rally should have a Double bottom - Which was also confirmed by the Change in the OI.
5700 - Which is the base for this Rally - The positions were made finally - Confirming the Rally.
70L rule given by Option.Trader was also confirmed. So for NIFTY you can look for OI with 70L to confirm the Bottom/Rally.
6000 - The Level which was the TOP range in the Previous Rally is not having huge positions, Which should be our next level to Watch. If 6000 also gets filled then this Rally would continue at least till 6000, because positions are already made in 6100.

At the end of the Day the Option values are as follows :
Total CHG in OI, 10L @ CE and 40L @ PE
Total OI, 3.2C @ CE, 4.1C @ PE
28L OI positions were made in 5600, 5700 and 5800

No huge positions yet in 5900 and 6000.

So bottom is almost certain at 5700. Top is yet to be decided whether it is 5900 or 6000. Given this data, Play with caution at 5900 and 6000 until positions are made in 5900 and 6000.

This month market will not cross 6100 - looking at the positions.

Weekly Range is 5600-6000.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Simple and Safe Strategy to make 15% a month by Selling Options.
When the market closed today the MAX CHG in OI was at 5800-6100 pair, which indicates that the Operators were selling this pair. so if you had sold 5700-6000 pair or 5800-6100, Please hold till it becomes around 65. Before we were holding 5600-6000 pair, which I had asked to close today at 63.

Can somebody throw some calculation on how many positions one can sell and hold in NIFTY overnight in NIFTY options. Capital is Rs 1 Lakh. The Strategy is very simple.

1. Sell the Pair where there is MAX OI or MAX CHG in OI and which is available for a price of around 93-98.
2. Close the positions around 63-68.
3. I would assume that it we need to hold at least a 3-5 trading days.
4. If my calculation is correct, you can hold 200 positions (200 CE and 200 PE) for Rs 100000.
5. So you make 200 * 30 = 6000 in one week, which is 6%.
6. So by this strategy one should be able to make at least 10%-15% of capital in a month - Which is a good return for a beginner or a Learner.
7. Only thing needed is Patience and Rs 1L.

 

[timepass]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Can somebody throw some calculation on how many positions one can sell and hold in NIFTY overnight in NIFTY options. Capital is Rs 1 Lakh. The Strategy is very simple. .

I think that the margin required for selling options is nearly the same as nifty futures. So with 1 lakh capital, a trader can sell and hold maybe 3-4 lots.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I think that the margin required for selling options is nearly the same as nifty futures. So with 1 lakh capital, a trader can sell and hold maybe 3-4 lots.

Thanks Timepass. That means somebody can hold only 100 positions (100 Ce and 100 PE).

With 100 positions one should be able to make at least 100*25*4 = 10,000. So it is 10% on Rs 100000. Not bad

 

[timepass]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Simple and Safe Strategy to make 15% a month by Selling Options.
When the market closed today the MAX CHG in OI was at 5800-6100 pair, which indicates that the Operators were selling this pair. so if you had sold 5700-6000 pair or 5800-6100, Please hold till it becomes around 65. Before we were holding 5600-6000 pair, which I had asked to close today at 63.

1) Max change in OI, in numbers or percentage ??
2) When you say "Sell this pair 5800-6100", you mean "sell 5800CE+PE and sell 6100CE+PE", do you ??

 

[guptak03]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Thanks Timepass. That means somebody can hold only 100 positions (100 Ce and 100 PE).

With 100 positions one should be able to make at least 100*25*4 = 10,000. So it is 10% on Rs 100000. Not bad

?????
100= 2 lots
25=POINTS
4=??

 

[rajus19]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

StockScreener - This is mostly for Cash Trading or to filter your stocks based on EOD values. This has only daily values
StockTracker - This is for Intraday trading. For this you have to understand the FLOW method and Trade based on Pivots. With this you can do Multiple Trades Perday (MTP)
I have also uploaded another tool OTP(One Trader Perday) based on Open=Low (BUY) and Open=High (SELL) strategy.

See my signature for the latest OTP download link

All the tools are based on my own knowledge that I had gathered in the past 2-3 years. So before trading use your own judgement.

Recently I am working on developing a tool to Analyze the Options chain.

So based on your Risk profile and Time, you can choose the tool accordingly.

If you are beginner, First Do Cash trading for six months based on the Stock Screener.
Then you can start with OTP to Intraday trading but just one trade per day per stock.
Finally only you should use MTP.

Thanks a lot Raj bro for the info. You would have already given details on understanding the StockScreener somewhere in this chain, I'll check for it.

Thanks,
Srini

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Thanks Timepass. That means somebody can hold only 100 positions (100 Ce and 100 PE).

With 100 positions one should be able to make at least 100*25*4 = 10,000. So it is 10% on Rs 100000. Not bad

I think its 200 lots of each as you would get the benefit of having an opposing position. Broker should give you extra margin

But i'm with you on this and would do live trading from tomorrow... 1L is put on this strategy
Just one thing... whats the Stop loss... for eg if you had sold the 5800PE/6100CE pair based on max chgi (80/16 ) and then we have a gap up and move towards 5920 would make the pair (52/33). CE would have become double... do you suggest then to close 6100CE and buy 6000CE instead? this would make our trade biased towards upside and eventually loose out if it fizzles out? Do suggest your way of trading this

One more good point you mentioned was the observation that when almost all the strike levels are having same chgi.. its a flat market... wonder what indications are available that would indicate an upcoming strong trend intraday? that would be worth oberving... latching onto those... even if infrequent would give bumper...i have seen option price closing higher by 100 points in a single day

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I think its 200 lots of each as you would get the benefit of having an opposing position. Broker should give you extra margin

But i'm with you on this and would do live trading from tomorrow... 1L is put on this strategy
Just one thing... whats the Stop loss... for eg if you had sold the 5800PE/6100CE pair based on max chgi (80/16 ) and then we have a gap up and move towards 5920 would make the pair (52/33). CE would have become double... do you suggest then to close 6100CE and buy 6000CE instead? this would make our trade biased towards upside and eventually loose out if it fizzles out? Do suggest your way of trading this

One more good point you mentioned was the observation that when almost all the strike levels are having same chgi.. its a flat market... wonder what indications are available that would indicate an upcoming strong trend intraday? that would be worth oberving... latching onto those... even if infrequent would give bumper...i have seen option price closing higher by 100 points in a single day

There are two things.
1. Value of Option loosing due to the Time factor - Which you should be knowing. So defintely the prices should go down.
2. When the Trend is UPwards, price lost in PE would be more than the price gained in CE. (we have to look at some of the Technicals like the Volatility, I mean the Alpha, Beta, Theta, Delata etc... the Option Greeks to understand more on this)

Coming to your 100 points raise, the reason why I discourage to buy ATM options for this strategy. The best pair right now 5600-6000. But it is Trading at 65. But in trading, We should also take a little bit of risk. So 5800-6100 pair with a combined price of around 96+ is also best option.

You can anyway monitor the price of 5800-6100 pair.

Stoploss if the Pair is breached. Say you have taken 5800-6100 and Market either breaks 5800 (on the downside) or 6100 (On the upside)