1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

raj,

Some paper trade on this, pls correct me if i'm wrong.

28-Jun as per EOD, option pair OI 5900 PE > 6000 CE
1-July at morning after 10AM also OI in 5900 PE > 6000 CE
so I've taken position bought this pair near 73 bcoz OI in PE is greater than OI in CE.
At that time Nifty spot was at 5862 and Fut. 5854
Now today total value is near 71

as per strategy i've taken right position or not ? And what Stoploss and Target i've to put.

thanx,
angira...

oh sorry raj but it's some type mistake it's not 5900 pe but 5600 pe . And I've bought
not sold.

So you have bought 5600PE and 6000CE @ 71 when it was trading at 73 now trading at 69.

What was the strategy did you follow? On what basis did you buy this pair?

I hope this pair should give you profit near 6000 or 5600. So you can try closing it today. (Hope you are only doing paper trade...)

 

[niftyrider]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi Raj
I m getting compile error..
Didnt find add reference in the sheet...

Plz help when u r free..

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5900 PE and 6000 CE are having FLAT CHG in OI - around 450K each. So as per our rule, even if the market makes 60 points profit from 5870 to 5930... Hope it will not sustain. So risky players should look for SHORTing at 5930. Look at the Option Values before shorting.

As I finished typing the Volume in 6000CE was more than 5900PE indicating a SELL... But I will hold on to the LONG at 5870. Let use see

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi Raj
I m getting compile error..
Didnt find add reference in the sheet...

Plz help when u r free..

Dinesh has already provided the solutions. Please browse couple of pages to find the answer.

 

[angira]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

raj,

28 jun EOD OI in PE is greater than OI in CE
then, 1-july morning 10 am also situation was same PE>CE.
now if OI in PE is greater than OI in CE then buy pair or sell pair ? pls clearify me.

angira...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5900 PE and 6000 CE are having FLAT CHG in OI - around 450K each. So as per our rule, even if the market makes 60 points profit from 5870 to 5930... Hope it will not sustain. So risky players should look for SHORTing at 5930. Look at the Option Values before shorting.

As I finished typing the Volume in 6000CE was more than 5900PE indicating a SELL... But I will hold on to the LONG at 5870. Let use see

5930 is the Level I am giving because it 60 points from 5870. But market can make much higher levels also. So do not be in a hurry to close the LONGs. I am only hinting that the Market will not sustain HIGH.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

MAX CHG OI changed back to 6000 CE and 5700 PE (In the morning it was 5600 PE) - So positional traders can sell 1 lot of 5700 PE and 1 lot 6000 CE and take profit on Monday. It is available at a combined premium of 95. It also confirms that market might test 5700 and not 5600...

raj,

28 jun EOD OI in PE is greater than OI in CE
then, 1-july morning 10 am also situation was same PE>CE.
now if OI in PE is greater than OI in CE then buy pair or sell pair ? pls clearify me.

angira...

Angira,

Please see the post that I had posted on 28-Jun-13.

In the CE, the MAX CHG in OI was at 6000CE and the MAX CHG in PE was at 5700 PE. That time it was available for 95. It would have given the Target when the market touched lows of 5770.

So my strategy is as follows...

In the CE, Look for the strike where there is MAXimum change in OI.
In the PE, Look for the strike where there is MAXimum change in OI.

If the both their prices add up to atleast 95, then we sell this pair.

Sorry that I am not able to comprehend your strategy. Let me look at that outside market hours and respond.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

LONG is confirmed now...

5900PE CHG in OI at 535K, 6000PE CHg in OI at 504K - FLAT to Positive. So once again Take profits regularly. But At least 5930 should be met, I hope.

Total CHG in OI,
CE @ 13.4 L (Greater than 10L which was in the morning)... PE @ 170K - Not enough for the BEARS .

If BEARS are not creating postion at 6000 CEs That would also mean that they think they can defend 5900 today.

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Angira,

Please see the post that I had posted on 28-Jun-13.

So my strategy is as follows...

In the CE, Look for the strike where there is MAXimum change in OI.
In the PE, Look for the strike where there is MAXimum change in OI.

If the both their prices add up to atleast 95, then we sell this pair.

Sorry that I am not able to comprehend your strategy. Let me look at that outside market hours and respond.

So is it possible to enter into a positional strategy every day or do we wait until the first one taken is closed out
As per the positional strategy... max chg in OI is 5900PE and 6000CE (if you ignore 5600PE...~500K). the combined value is around 150...but do you instead suggest not to take a strike price which is ITM?

As per Volume, 5900CE has 133K (but with -281K in CHGI) and 5800PE has 120K volume... so if we sell these for intraday... the points is 150 as you suggested... so does this hold good for intraday strategy?

Overall i think 5600PE has formed a solid base at 82L OI & 5700 - 5900 CE have seen unwinding @ rate of more than -10% chgi
But 6000CE has still not seen an unwinding... so rally ceiling looks to be 6000... looks like a good candidate to short at current levels

Another interesting way to look at it is if 6000CE holds to maintain the high levels of OI, then you can look at shorting a deep ITM call at max resistance... say 5800CE @ ~220-240 levels... (a.k.a 5970 nifty spot)... so as to get the maximum benefits in case of a reversal, with appropriate SL

 

[dineshN]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5900PE total OI has merely moved from 24L to 25L. Looking at the current trend it appears the uptrend is very weak!