1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Options update at 11:30 AM

MAX CHG in OI at 5600PE (changed from 5900 PE) and 6000CE.

5900PE has 601K and 6000CE has 665K - Slightly bearish.

5600PE - 11L

MAX OI also at 5600-6000

So 5870 is being Strengthened. So market can also Test 5860 levels today. So hold on to your Longs with Strict Stoploss.

The price of the Pairs
5800Pe-6100CE Pair trading at 87 -Taken around 98.
5700PE-6000CE pair trading at 88 - Taken at 87.

5600-6000 Pair which we closed around 65 - Now trading at 73 - So you can appreciate the levels of 95, 65 etc..

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

So is it possible to enter into a positional strategy every day or do we wait until the first one taken is closed out
As per the positional strategy... max chg in OI is 5900PE and 6000CE (if you ignore 5600PE...~500K). the combined value is around 150...but do you instead suggest not to take a strike price which is ITM?

As per Volume, 5900CE has 133K (but with -281K in CHGI) and 5800PE has 120K volume... so if we sell these for intraday... the points is 150 as you suggested... so does this hold good for intraday strategy?

Overall i think 5600PE has formed a solid base at 82L OI & 5700 - 5900 CE have seen unwinding @ rate of more than -10% chgi
But 6000CE has still not seen an unwinding... so rally ceiling looks to be 6000... looks like a good candidate to short at current levels

Another interesting way to look at it is if 6000CE holds to maintain the high levels of OI, then you can look at shorting a deep ITM call at max resistance... say 5800CE @ ~220-240 levels... (a.k.a 5970 nifty spot)... so as to get the maximum benefits in case of a reversal, with appropriate SL

We are still in the first week of July. So I will go with 5600PE-6000PE (@ 75)which has max OI. Or 5700PE-6000CE Available now at 88.

Touching 5800, 5900 now is Risky

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5900PE total OI has merely moved from 24L to 25L. Looking at the current trend it appears the uptrend is very weak!

Yes you are right... That is why I said even it goes UP, it will not sustain. So we have to be cautious on Long. But that does not mean we have to Short also.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The Overall CHG in OI at CE is 311K and in PE it is 27L.
In the morning in the PE it was around 10L, and then it went down to 7.5L and now it is UP by 27L. - So clearly it is BULLish - Whether it is a Strong BULL or MILD BULL is not clear because the positions in 5900-6000 is not that much - OR it is FLAT.

One more thing there is Squaring OFF happening in CE - What does this mean? When the Market is UP, why should they Square off positions at CE. It is basically the Shorts in CE getting Squared OFF - Now all the SELLs (only the SELLs which were taken when the market was at Previous High) are getting Squared OFF and being converted to BUY - Which should also be looked at as BULLish signal.

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Squaring indicated by negative OI is strong bullishness as bears are running for cover. The higher the strike price the better. But not seen that happening in 6000Ce. With earnings season result around corner I think this really will fizzle out sooner than later

 

[Relish]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

We are still in the first week of July. So I will go with 5600PE-6000PE (@ 75)which has max OI. Or 5700PE-6000CE Available now at 88.

Touching 5800, 5900 now is Risky

Are both PE or 5600PE - 6000CE ?

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Did the 5700pe -6000ce pair. Margin required is 82k(87 premium). So you can take 2lots of each. With a target of 65, it means 4% return including brokerages. If we are able to trade 4 per week it would be 16%, which looks doubtful as premiums decrease over time. Let's track this month

 

[dineshN]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Market shed 15 odd points! Where did we go wrong in option table analysis?

 

[sabhlok_r]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Market shed 15 odd points! Where did we go wrong in option table analysis?

It was the dollar effect...USD shot up by 20 paise....

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Are both PE or 5600PE - 6000CE ?

Sorry it is 5600Pe and 6000CE