1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

If CEs are not getting squared OFF then that means only two things

- If they are LONG positions : Market makers do not make huge LONG positions. And whoever made the LONG positions think it is not the right time to close the positions. Waiting for more UP side.
- If they are SHORT positions : Most positions created by the Market Makers (BEARS). BEARS are waiting for more DOWN side.

One more important thing which we are over looking is that the Market Makers create SHORT positions in the constracts - And they have to also the Square off (BUY) the positions... So these 20L positions each in 5900PE, 6000Pe and 6100PE could also be BUY positions because we are nearing the Last week of Expiry. Anyways things will become clear and it will happen very fast in the coming 5 days. Tomorrow will be Crucial day to Watch.

One more data to suggest that there was HEAVY buying in PUTs today is the Volatility. The Volatility of PUTs have come down.

Yesterday the AVG Volatility of PUTs was around 20+. Today EOD closing the volatility is as follows.

5900 PE - 18.7
6000 PE - 16
6100 PE - 13.4
6200 PE - 9.8

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I think, there is no stopping it.

6100 will be most likely be touched before expiry... probably even more. But for now lets see how the charts treats the recent breakout.

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

One more important thing which we are over looking is that the Market Makers create SHORT positions in the constracts - And they have to also the Square off (BUY) the positions... So these 20L positions each in 5900PE, 6000Pe and 6100PE could also be BUY positions because we are nearing the Last week of Expiry. Anyways things will become clear and it will happen very fast in the coming 5 days. Tomorrow will be Crucial day to Watch.

One more data to suggest that there was HEAVY buying in PUTs today is the Volatility. The Volatility of PUTs have come down.

Yesterday the AVG Volatility of PUTs was around 20+. Today EOD closing the volatility is as follows.

5900 PE - 18.7
6000 PE - 16
6100 PE - 13.4
6200 PE - 9.8

I would disagree, an increase in OI is due to makers ( writers), today was the ideal bull signal through options,
6000 ce unwound with > -10% and net OI < 70l
6000pe added > 20%
Interesting journey through options and thanks to Raj for taking this up. I personally have learned a lot through interactions . Now to make some money out of it

 

[DSM]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Thanks Raj,

Appreciate your efforts in creating XL based system earlier and now options.
Persistence always pays, and as is said, failure is never final if you are willing to get up each time you are down.

Wishing you the very best in the options journey. God bless.

Just a Summary of the last 4 weeks in Options Chain Analysis:

I have been covering the Options Chain analsysi for the last 3-4 weeks. I have been trading unsuccessfully from 2010 onwards. For the first time in this month, I have been making profit, all because of the knowledge in Options Chain. I feel it is a very important data to predict and understand the direction for Intraday and Swing/Positional Trading.

I am not sure How many of you feel the same way. Please let me know if you feel the same way and whether you are benefitting with my daily Options Analysis data.

In options There are a lot of opportunities. I feel I have crossed the first step in understanding the Options Chain data and doing some very low risk (Or No risk) trading using Pair trading using the MAX OI.

I think the next step would be do some Pair trading involving some minimum risk using strategies like Spreads. Let me know if you folks are intersted to try that for next month. Also let me know from your experience whether these stategies are worth trying.

Some of the Strategies that I have heard of like (there may be more than one strategy but I am taking jsut one in each category)

When the market is BEARISH and Volatility is Neutral
- Long Put Spread (BUY ATM PUT + SELL OTM PUT)

When the market is BULLISH and Volatility is Neutral
- LONG Call Spread (BUY ATM CALL + SELL OTM CALL)

When the market is BEARISH and Volatility is HIGH
- BEAR PUT Spread (SELL ATM PUT + BUY OTM PUT)

When the market is BULLISH and Volatility is HIGH
- BULL CALL Spread (BUY ATM CALL + SELL OTM CALL)

All the Above strategies are common sense approach. Only that the naming of these strategies sound as if some high funda strategies. But all these stategies will carry a limited risk of about 40-50 points and the Reward is also limited to say 100 points.

I have not taken the following combination - The Straddles and Strangles because the Risk is High
Stategies for LOW Volatility markets -
Strategies for Neutral markets

 

[guptak03]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Lt me tell you the truth ..i be scrolling this thread bcoz to get info abot daily trends even though i have my own system which is good but when i see you ppl going on the same trend ill fell more comfortable in my positions and learning alot from this thread ..:clapping:..so its thump up from my side :thumb:

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

60 CE still has max OI... so it is still a resistance which is not broken.
If NF wants to reach and sustain 6100, it must shift max OI to 6100. Therefore, it would be best to take advantage of this upleg in booking profits... and take fresh positions only after deep intraday pullbacks.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

19-Jul-13 Option Updates

9:30 AM
Signal is FLAT to BULLISH.
MAX CHG in OI at 5900-6200 Pair - Trend is slightly bullish.
5900 PE @ 3.2L 6200 CE @ 2L .
MAX Pain @ 6000, indicating that Market will expire around 6000.
According to the Pivot indicates a HIGH of 6107 and Low of 6046
MAX OI still at 5800-6000.
People who want to take Risk can Sell the 5900PE-6000CE Pair which would be available today around 95+. Buy this only when the market turns bearish

9:45 AM
MAX OI Shifted from 5800-6000 to 5900-6000. So ideal to play the Pair. As told earlier do not BUY the positions now. Buy when it is at the TOP of the range or bottom of the Range

10:00 AM
MAX OI at 5900-6000, also giving the signal that market will not go below 5900 in this Expiry.
The Range is shifting to 6036-6100. When the MAX CHG in OI is 200 points apart it is advantage Operators for Eating premium or MMs taking positions.
MAX CHG in OI at 5900-6200. For any Serious action it has to shift to either 5900-6100 or 6000-6200 at least.

 

[prabhsingh]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Lt me tell you the truth ..i be scrolling this thread bcoz to get info abot daily trends even though i have my own system which is good but when i see you ppl going on the same trend ill fell more comfortable in my positions and learning alot from this thread ..:clapping:..so its thump up from my side :thumb:

Would you like to provide more details about your system?

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Just a Summary of the last 4 weeks in Options Chain Analysis:



When the market is BEARISH and Volatility is Neutral
- Long Put Spread (BUY ATM PUT + SELL OTM PUT)

When the market is BULLISH and Volatility is Neutral
- LONG Call Spread (BUY ATM CALL + SELL OTM CALL)

When the market is BEARISH and Volatility is HIGH
- BEAR PUT Spread (SELL ATM PUT + BUY OTM PUT)

When the market is BULLISH and Volatility is HIGH
- BULL CALL Spread (BUY ATM CALL + SELL OTM CALL)




Strategies for Neutral markets

How do you decide on volatility to be neutral. Is it based on values of India vix or individual volatility for options strike price? Specifically what values of volatility would you term as being neutral

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Any price above 6050 is good to exit positions and take up risky shorts.

Price has put up a struggle at 6050 for the third time and still is unable to capture 6100 on the options table. Looks shady.

Deep pullback of around 80 points is on the cards. 5975, yesterday's low, is very likely to be touched... !!