1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

But then Raj why are these big shots not squaring off their 5800 and 5900CE which also has huge OI built up.Does not that sound scary? Who knows it could be 100-200 points downside may be next week then?

If CEs are not getting squared OFF then that means only two things

- If they are LONG positions : Market makers do not make huge LONG positions. And whoever made the LONG positions think it is not the right time to close the positions. Waiting for more UP side.
- If they are SHORT positions : Most positions created by the Market Makers (BEARS). BEARS are waiting for more DOWN side.

 

[srichakra]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

But then Raj why are these big shots not squaring off their 5800 and 5900CE which also has huge OI built up.Does not that sound scary? Who knows it could be 100-200 points downside may be next week then?

They expect it to expire worthless.

 

[maneverfix]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi, Raj downloaded both your Excel files, both are working fine, however one thing happens when these file are open, other Excel files in which I am working stop functioning, i mean they dont calculate, formulas dont work etc.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

LONG Targets are more or less made. Those who think this market will not cross 6100 can take Short positions now.

3:10 PM - 10L CEs sqaured OFF. The Target 6048, which I was talking in the morning is Met exactly now.

3:15 PM - Please ignore my message to Go Short. We will go Short tomorrow when we have a clear view. 5800-6000 Pair available for around 85. Those who want to Sell the pair can try Selling. This is with the assumption that the market will expire around 5900. MAX OI still 5800-6000 pair

3:20 PM - The 5600-6200 August Pair is trading at 110 with Loss of 14 points. But I will still hold this position looking at the 5800-6000 OI in the current series.

3:25 PM - 17L positions in 6100 PE - indicating Bullish

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Today was a Good day to trade. For 3/4 of the session market was hovering around 5990-6000 and in the last 30 min to 1 hour market made that sudden jump. But going by the Options Data it was very clear that this was coming. There is no other data which would give such a confidence. It was also a good day in testing our patience to the core. so if we are able to stay cool and make profits on these days then that means we are progressing in the right direction to become a good trader. Days such as today are important and necessary to make a good trader.

For this Expiry we have to see if it expires around 5900 or 6000. Today the MAX Pain is at 6000 suggesting that it would expire around 6000.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi, Raj downloaded both your Excel files, both are working fine, however one thing happens when these file are open, other Excel files in which I am working stop functioning, i mean they dont calculate, formulas dont work etc.

Yes since there are a lot of sheets and a lot of calculation happening, in the program I am changing the Calculation Option to Manual. By default it would have been Automatic. So when you are using my tool I would suggest to keep it as manual. Otherwise the tool would be very slow. When you are done with the tool, you can change the calculation option to Automatic by going to

Formulas menu > Calculation Options > Choose Automatic

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

If CEs are not getting squared OFF then that means only two things

- If they are LONG positions : Market makers do not make huge LONG positions. And whoever made the LONG positions think it is not the right time to close the positions. Waiting for more UP side.
- If they are SHORT positions : Most positions created by the Market Makers (BEARS). BEARS are waiting for more DOWN side.

So you could see why not so many square off happening. In a matter of 20 minutes 3L became 10.5L.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Volatility Trendline Chart.

As per the Volatility Trenline chart, the PE and CE would meet around 6050-6075. Those who want to take risk can Buy now for GAP UP opening tomorrow. But it is still Risky.

The overall CHG in PE Positions are also building up from 84K to now 8L

As I mentioned Yesterday, As per the Volatility Chart the target of 6050-6075 is met, even though it was not a GAP UP.

As per the EOD Volatility chart today, the Trend lines meet at 5800.

The Volatility of PEs have drastically come down especially the 6200 PE at 9.8% - So there was also some heavy buying in PUTs.

Let us see if the 5800 Target is met before the expiry.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Observation on the OI pair.

The 5800-6000 Pair has been swinging between 65 and 95. Today it was again available for 95 for Shorting. We were only taking SHORT positions. Going by the observation, We could also Go LONG if the pair is not very far OFF like the 5800-6000 especially in a Volatile market like this month.

To sum it up...
SELL the pair around 95 - Buy back around 65.
BUY again at 65 and Close again at 95.

This would be good stategy for the Low risk traders.

Note: So far trading pairs in the current month, I did not make any loss. For the first time selling the pair in the next month, I am at loss in the 5600-6200 Pair. So for SELLing I am not going to trade the next month pair.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Just a Summary of the last 4 weeks in Options Chain Analysis:

I have been covering the Options Chain analsysi for the last 3-4 weeks. I have been trading unsuccessfully from 2010 onwards. For the first time in this month, I have been making profit, all because of the knowledge in Options Chain. I feel it is a very important data to predict and understand the direction for Intraday and Swing/Positional Trading.

I am not sure How many of you feel the same way. Please let me know if you feel the same way and whether you are benefitting with my daily Options Analysis data.

In options There are a lot of opportunities. I feel I have crossed the first step in understanding the Options Chain data and doing some very low risk (Or No risk) trading using Pair trading using the MAX OI.

I think the next step would be do some Pair trading involving some minimum risk using strategies like Spreads. Let me know if you folks are intersted to try that for next month. Also let me know from your experience whether these stategies are worth trying.

Some of the Strategies that I have heard of like (there may be more than one strategy but I am taking jsut one in each category)

When the market is BEARISH and Volatility is Neutral
- Long Put Spread (BUY ATM PUT + SELL OTM PUT)

When the market is BULLISH and Volatility is Neutral
- LONG Call Spread (BUY ATM CALL + SELL OTM CALL)

When the market is BEARISH and Volatility is HIGH
- BEAR PUT Spread (SELL ATM PUT + BUY OTM PUT)

When the market is BULLISH and Volatility is HIGH
- BULL CALL Spread (BUY ATM CALL + SELL OTM CALL)

All the Above strategies are common sense approach. Only that the naming of these strategies sound as if some high funda strategies. But all these stategies will carry a limited risk of about 40-50 points and the Reward is also limited to say 100 points.

I have not taken the following combination - The Straddles and Strangles because the Risk is High
Stategies for LOW Volatility markets -
Strategies for Neutral markets