1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[aimer]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Nifty is in a triangle on 5tf...will surely see a BO, and we have got a buy signal on MTP...looks like this call should surely work...

 

[aimer]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

BNF running towards 2nd tgt...Nifty moving towards 1st tgt...
If somehow we could avoid those initial trades that whipped few initial trades then this would turn out to be a wonderful system...keeping my fingers crossed...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

BNF running towards 2nd tgt...Nifty moving towards 1st tgt...
If somehow we could avoid those initial trades that whipped few initial trades then this would turn out to be a wonderful system...keeping my fingers crossed...

For that the experience only will count. No system will be able to predict. One of my observation in the past 3 years is that after a big move normally the market behaves in a volatile manner. Remember yesterday the market made a high of 5235 from a low of 5154 (nearly 80 points or 1.5 % move). So the next day there would definitely be some volatile moves...

So anyway even though the tool does not explicitly tell a "VOLATILE" move there were enough indications in the morning to suggest that it was volatile..

 

[aimer]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

For that the experience only will count. No system will be able to predict. One of my observation in the past 3 years is that after a big move normally the market behaves in a volatile manner. Remember yesterday the market made a high of 5235 from a low of 5154 (nearly 80 points or 1.5 % move). So the next day there would definitely be some volatile moves...

So anyway even though the tool does not explicitly tell a "VOLATILE" move there were enough indications in the morning to suggest that it was volatile..

Do u consider indicators in Excell? I mean can we incorporate India Vix and any other indicator in excell...I am zero in these comp language so I am not able to incorporate anything into this...

secondly ya since after a big move there is some consolidation so i would have avoided any shorts...my shorts would have been only below visual pivots and that didnot happened...ya long trade was surely there...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Just one clarification raj, as u have said that we keep a stop 7 points below the buy level...but u have already stated in ur initial pages that nifty does not go beyond 7-10 points below the opening range 20-25% of times,(just quoting ur statement from the first page of urs " 20-25% of the time when the market is trending, NIFTY never crosses the opening price by more than 10 points.")considering the stops below buying level does not go against ur strategy!!! According to this the stop should stay any ways below the opening range irrespective of where we enter and should not change the stop on the basis of where we buy...in that case we are stopped out below xx39-7=xx32...

My question is then why are u considering stop below where an individual is buying?

You are right on the 10 points. My example is wrong... Yes the stoploss should be below the opening price. So in that case if somebody misses the buy at X price then he/she should not be buying above X+3... I am not sure if it can work practically...

Let us wait for our friend Option.Trader to publish the Futures data results...

 

[sholay]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Charts are not correct in beta2

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Charts are not correct in beta2

Yes I think when we get flat signals the chart is not working... Let me know if the chart fails in some other case... Please also post the "Trading System" snapshot also so that it would be easy for me to derive the problem.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Do u consider indicators in Excell? I mean can we incorporate India Vix and any other indicator in excell...I am zero in these comp language so I am not able to incorporate anything into this...

secondly ya since after a big move there is some consolidation so i would have avoided any shorts...my shorts would have been only below visual pivots and that didnot happened...ya long trade was surely there...

Yes good idea... If you have any logic let me know... I will take care of the programming... How to interpret VIX, when can we decide it is volatile etc..... The data INDIA VIX is already downloaded in our tool as part of the Index data (to get the SPOT prices)... We only need to interpret for our decision making?

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

You are right on the 10 points. My example is wrong... Yes the stoploss should be below the opening price. So in that case if somebody misses the buy at X price then he/she should not be buying above X+3... I am not sure if it can work practically...

Let us wait for our friend Option.Trader to publish the Futures data results...

Attached is the Futures analysis with the same philosophy. All the assumptions(configuration) are listed out at the begining.
Its clear that trading in Futures with the same strategy is not that rewarding as the index suggests. The futures data i would say is still on the optimistic side. In reality, its impossible to get the trade close to the opening. If you have to keep a stop loss based on open-7points, this would increase your stop loss and diminish the risk reward ratio. Also in pyramiding, as you are leveraging, the positions will get closed at 3:10. So ideally speaking, the configuration of no leverage (Keep margin as whole margin reqd) would be the closest to reality. In this case the returns are only 7 times original capital.
All in all, no doubt it is a good system, which will test your patience as well as your discipline. It is ideal for people like me who dont have much time to sit in front of terminal the whole day. :thumb:
A few changes, like not trading on those days when you know for sure that the tide has changed or trading at support or resistance only, could increase the win %. Let me know if anyone needs any more details
View attachment 18126

 

[aimer]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Yes good idea... If you have any logic let me know... I will take care of the programming... How to interpret VIX, when can we decide it is volatile etc..... The data INDIA VIX is already downloaded in our tool as part of the Index data (to get the SPOT prices)... We only need to interpret for our decision making?

Actually I have two points in my mind...
Any trade fails only in two cases...one when we are in side ways...second when there is a lot of volatility...

The first can be taken care off when we decide some parameters within which if the market moves we will avoid those trades...and one of those parameters that I generally consider is trends...I am big follower of Saint Sir, and would never trade against trend...so that can be made one of the parameters...so no trade against trend...

Secondly the volatality can be controlled by using India vix or may be ATR for that case...If the value of india vix moves up against some particular range we should avoid any trade in that period ...we may get few good trades also in that phase but we will have to keep ourself disciplined to avoid those trades and latter take the trdes when the vix value comes down...

These are just my views...may be there would be differences among our fellow traders, but u dont know which idea would led us to the Holy Grail