Almost all momentum indicators are pointing to a very strong force on the downward direction. The volume is the highest we seen in a long long time. We closed virtually at the low of the day. We never went above the 34 ema in 15 min TF. There was a element of panic selling in the last 1 hour today.
All the oscillators are pointing towards a technical bounce. 4900 call Jan was written mercilessly and has added huge OI. So a chance remains of a technical bounce to that level, just to force a short covering, remains.
Key levels are :
4918 is the 50% retracement.
4912 is where ema 34 is in 15 min TF.
4907 is the exit from bear channel in hrly TF.
4859, is the exit from the bear channel in 15 min TF
4828 is the 61.2% retracement.
4801 is the low we made on nov 27th
4534, is low we made on nov 3rd.
unless we want to draw retracement from july low of 3909, there is virtually nothing between 4801 to 4534. Market may stop falling where ever it wants to.
Now the question on my mind is, should i shift the straddle to 4800 levels or keep it the way it is at 4900. 4900 call wont depreciate much now, so the value of the straddle will increase with nifty, if we decide to travel south. If we bounce back, then shifting the put to 4800 will ensure rapid decay of the premium.
Trading plan:
Position is secured, so no action in the first 10 min. Wait for the dust to settle down before acting.
NF short & 4800 call Jan : Bounce back, Covering Nifty & 4800 call, is not required unless 4859 is taken out in 15 min TF. Close the 4800 jan call, if 4859 is not taken out by the bounce. If open is flat, close 4800 call immediately.
Closing the 4900 call is a must if we do not break 4835 within first 10 min. level to close NF & 4900 call : 4859.
If the LOD is broken within the first 10 min, then exit the 4900 put. short it again on CCI hook followed by a hook on STO / floor.