100% profit in 6 months...!

[sudoku1]

majority of the poll has voted in favor of 100 %...of course count me on

 

[trader.trends]

Linkon

Nf shorted at 4899 ends at 4835 a good 1.3% away. Why do you need to spend on a costly hedge of 50/-. You need to safeguard only 4900. So would not the 4900ce at 14/- been a better option?

 

[linkon7]

Linkon, food for thought.
Does it make sense to use a filter of 20 points around 4900 to go long/short ?
You have been shifting positions long/short around such a big round number xx00.
Generally mkts are choppy around such round number but your option strikes will always be such a round number.

Maybe, if u use, 20 points filter on either side of 4900, probably, u would have avoided the choppy trades, and got into clear directional trades. My observation is 20 points range around xx00 numbers are the action packed range where bull/bear fight to show their strength (haven't got statistics for this hence it is gut feel at this stage).

Another psychological observations - how do u treat market's money ? Is the colore of this money different from your original capital ? Why do we feel market's money given to us is for enjoyment and carries less value then our own personal initial capital ?

These are more fundamental issues and there is no single answer. You got to answer this yourself. IMO, if you treat them differently, then u are always carrying the risk of giving back the accumulated profit. You will make profits, but will find it hard to keep it in your account.. Personally, I had to struggle to sort out this challange and now for me, both money is same. If mkt has given me some money, then it is same as my initial capital and I treat both money as same. It has helped me in limiting the amount that mkt can take back from me, after it has given it to me.

In this short straddle, fine, mkt gave to 300 rs. for next 25 trading days i.e. u have 12 rs of free timedecay (or pocket money) with you every day. So if u have 3 scalping trades loosing more then 12 points including brokerage, then you have finished today's pocket money. IMO, ur real P&L is in negative. Lets not forget, straddles never give u max profit of 300 points. With your prev experience u would know how much mkt deviates from Straddle strike price, so u shd discount that average deviation from you 300 rs of collected premium, cause u will have give that back to market at some time in future.

Hope you are getting my points here. Sharing these observations to give u different insight into your strategies and challange your beliefs.

All the best and Happy Trading

I was not mentally prepared to initiate trade on this today. Normally, when i get whipped 2-3 times, i force a 30 min recess on myself. But having already initiated this, there was no turning back.

I was expecting market to make a low around 4912-4918 region and then pull itself up. Normally, short straddle wt NF, at the end of the trading range gives better protection to NF. But market proved me wrong and caught me with my pants down. What followed was a series of triggers getting hit both ways and i was clueless.

We will see 4900 again in the feb series and hopefully, i'll be more prepared.

Thanks for the observation "My observation is 20 points range around xx00 numbers are the action packed range where bull/bear fight to show their strength". I will keep a mental note of that.

I really dont look at the money part when i trade. I am more dissapointed at not having a clear framework of rules for "what-if" scenarios than i was at loosing potential profit. Mybe thats something i need to work on. U are always carrying the risk of giving back the accumulated profit. You will make profits, but will find it hard to keep it in your account..

Thanks again..for highlighting my Grey areas. Need to sort that out ASAP...

 

[linkon7]

Linkon

Nf shorted at 4899 ends at 4835 a good 1.3% away. Why do you need to spend on a costly hedge of 50/-. You need to safeguard only 4900. So would not the 4900ce at 14/- been a better option?

Tomorrow being expiry, Lets look at the 3 scenario :
Gap up : we have to gap up above 4900 for the ce to have any meaningful premium. Even if we gap up at 4900, the value would be something like 25-30 max at opening. A 10 to 15 point protection against a loss of 65 points in NF.
4800 ce will be worth atleast 110-115, hence better protection.

Flat opening : 4900 CE will be the first to be shorted left right and centre. Thats a sure shot loss of 10-12 points. 4800 CE still has 35 points value, so a loss of 5-6 points.

Gap down : 4900 Ce is dead. 4800 will die, but will have 20-25 points left in the morning. It'll bring my cost of NF to 4875 levels but the gap down will ensure, 4900 is further off from current market price. I can job the NF for that loss...

 

[karin_jack]

hey linkon saw ur trades..... i guess ur broker would also b interested about the result

if u doing all this for the said reason.... i would say think once again...... rest u r good in ur trading strategy and executing it....

regards

 

[linkon7]

hey linkon saw ur trades..... i guess ur broker would also b interested about the result

if u doing all this for the said reason.... i would say think once again...... rest u r good in ur trading strategy and executing it....

regards

:lol: he gets more on my account on normal days...Today it was wt 2 lots of NF... and hardly 2 lots options pair.

normal days..i trade wt 20 lots of options... or 4 lots of NF... have atleast 5-8 trades...

 

[trader.trends]

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/03/why-traders-plan-trades-but-dont-trade.html

 

[linkon7]

It was a serious carnage on Dalal Street today as market closed at the lowest point of the day on record volumes of Rs 1.80 lakh crore. It was a bloodbath and a major selloff in realty, metal, auto and banking stocks. Experts feel the short-term trend is down and now no levels are sacred. They believe there could be more pain ahead with a small bounce of 100 points thrown in at some point. Sensex shut shop at 16289, down 490 points and Nifty at 4853, down 154 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 3.79% and BSE Smallcap index was down 5.06%. All sectoral indices closed in the negative, BSE Realty index down 8% and BSE Metal Index down 5.8%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 65 against declines of 1238 on the NSE. There were no Nifty gainers, only losers DLF, Unitech, Tata Steel, Reliance Capital and more.

 

[BrokerJi]

I suspect if dynamic market and psychological pressure of this 'public' bet has anything to do with, but definitely today your trades were more skewed towards assumptions than mathematics. :annoyed:
All the best for tomorrow and let us know if there's any additional rider on fulfilling the bet before time, you looks in hurry mate. :thumb::clap:
Regards,
BJ

 

[linkon7]

I suspect if dynamic market and psychological pressure of this 'public' bet has anything to do with, but definitely today your trades were more skewed towards assumptions than mathematics. :annoyed:
All the best for tomorrow and let us know if there's any additional rider on fulfilling the bet before time, you looks in hurry mate. :thumb::clap:
Regards,
BJ

more like playing cricket with a beach ball...
hope tomorrow will be different...