4xpipcounter's trendlines

[4xpipcounter]

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Got to stay on top of the live action.
Notice the following candle after the break that is was bearish and backed into the TL, then we got another strong move north.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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As far as this pair is concerned, there is nothing left to fulfill as far as the break of the TL is concerned. As you can tell by the 4-hour chart, we had the strong break of the TL, the retracement back to the TL, and then the move north from the bounce.

The next thing we are looking for is a reaction from this point. It may appear we are in a new downtrend on the 4-hour chart, but that is not confirmed until we get a break of the new UP TL.

BTW, this break of the TL and the move north was picture perfect, and the nice thing is we tracked it the whole way in real time. I picked up my share of the pips on this move, too. The reason was because of where it broke in relation to the current peak. I could have done one of my nuggets, but this is for all you people who read this far into the post.
Look at the peak before the move UP (I will call it the swing high.). That was 1.4267. Look at the swing low. That was 1.4151. Subtract 1.4267-1.4151= .0116.
Look at the point it broke the TL. That was 1.4222. Look at the new high. That was 1.4348. 1.4348-1.4222= .0126.
The object is after the TL has been broken, you subtract the recent swing high and swing low, and that will be the minimum distance from the point the TL was broken to the new peak (Dip in a downtrend.). In essence, as soon as that candle was finished, you could have done you measurements, and came out with .0116. Add that to 1.4222, and that would have been 1.4338, and that was the minimum the pair was headed to.

I'm getting ready to do a 4th nugget, and the reference will be this chart. It's going to be a lot of fun.

BTW, Folks. I'd love to hear some TL success stories, at least on your demo. Maybe you can do your own research on any market you choose, trade it, and then tell us how you done. Or, post some charts. Let's see if we can dissect some things just to make sure we are seeing the right thing.
I believe wholeheartedly the way you build confidence in a system with experience. I don't like rear view mirror methodologies with no substance. This is why we put legs on the TL's. That's what makes us pips and ticks
This thread has been getting 132 hits per day, and many have already voted on the thread. I'm tickled! Now, tickle me more, and let me here some success stories.
Don't be ashamed to post a failure. This is what this is all about. If you failed, most likely it is something you did wrong, and we'll point it out. Every once in awhile, there is an exception to the rule, like the one I posted on the USD/JPY.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nugget #4

I could have just as easily called this "Additional trading opportunities." Refer to the chart in post #42.

We are approaching the TL, only this time, we are headed south. The question is, "Will the candle break the TL, or bounce off it and continue north.I have a personal bias where it is headed, and that can be found at my other thread at "Some of my forecasts". What we are going to have to do in order to get to the point of this 4th nugget is stay away from my other thread, because for now, we are only interested in trading opportunities as presented to us by the TL's.

We are far enough into this thread by now to know that one of the 2 things I mentioned is going to happen if the TL is hit-- we get a bounce, or a strong move through it. (Check the EUR/USD about 4 hours after Nifty has started moving. You will know then which way this pair is headed.) (Whoa! I'm off on a tangent.)
First, we do not know for a fact the TL will be hit, so this is assuming it does get hit. Once there, wait for the candle to complete (You have to anyway if you are waiting for a TL break.) If the candle closes above the TL, then go long, and the stop will be about 5 pips below the bottom of the wick.
As opposed to the TL break, where you have to be more patient, this trade is just, "Jump in. The water's fine."
There is only a slight problem, and this can be backtested. The probability is not as high for success, as the TL break. Simply put, it could go UP for a short while, and then a wild break, and we are on the other side of the TL headed south. The nice thing is that it is a tight stop. If the TL's are drawn correctly, and everyone of these type of trades were made, your equity curve will rise at a very predictable and appreciable rate.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Refer to post #40 for this chart. It is the one I was talking about about being careful to trade a TL break on anything sharper than a 45 degree angle.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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BTW, I have no ulterior motive concerning the EUR/USD. I just happened to pick it to track it as close as I have been. This chart is showing the current plight after the bounce off the TL. As of the time of the copying of the chart, there was only 3 minutes left for that candle. During this writing, the candle did finish above the TL, so this means it should head back up. The dip was 1.4242, so in order to go long (Like I did.), you would have a stop at 1.4241.
As I mentioned before, the bounce off the TL is a little more of a riskier trade than the break of the TL, but by trading the bounces, is still a good trade.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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This is a market most people on this site are more familiar with, even than I am, so this is a good test. I have been tracking this market at "Nifty Intraday Pivot Points", almost on a daily basis, and it is Nifty. I deleted everything from this chart except the TL's, because they are all you need to tell the story. The white TL's on this chart were drawn from the 4-hour, and the others are my regular colors-- red for the weekly, and blue for the daily.
BTW, the TF they were drawn from is important. It indicates potential strength of containment or the break of the TL.
As always, when the candle gets close to your TL, you want to put that market on your personal alert list.

 

[VJAY]

Dear Paul,
Thanks for starting TL analyse in our NIFTY ....
Our market will open for only 6.15 hrs...Why not use hourly chart instead of 4 Hrly chart?
Just my view....

This one NIFTY future chart used hrly TL as yellow color..

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Good question, VJAY. I do think I posted about the hourly in another post, so I posted this chart to give a better pictorial view of what I was saying, adn once again the live action that will be impending.

The white lines were all drawn off the hourly, similar to yours. Compare the look we get on the hourly by comparison to the move we get on the EUR/USD. When we do get the break of the 4-hour (gray slate color), watch the difference.The price action still looks sideways, and there are 3 hourly TL's that were broken. In using TL's, we don't want doubt. We only want sure and strong moves that leaves no doubt what we are supposed to do.

Dear Paul,
Thanks for starting TL analyse in our NIFTY ....
Our market will open for only 6.15 hrs...Why not use hourly chart instead of 4 Hrly chart?
Just my view....

This one NIFTY future chart used hrly TL as yellow color..

 

[4xpipcounter]

One more thing I did not point out concerning your lines.
The TL you drew was very weak for the follow reasons:
1. It was not drawn from a dip.
2. It covers a very short period of time.
3. It is the opposite of a TL that is too steep. In other words, with this type of TL, it is subject to plenty of false breaks.

If anything, a TL could have been drawn from the peak to the swing high to show the new downtrend, but I'm still not encouraging that. The TL's of any consequence are as drawn on my original chart. Wait for the action to unfold. You'll see what I am saying.

Dear Paul,
Thanks for starting TL analyse in our NIFTY ....
Our market will open for only 6.15 hrs...Why not use hourly chart instead of 4 Hrly chart?
Just my view....

This one NIFTY future chart used hrly TL as yellow color..

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Here's an exception to the rule that is going to yield a very nice trading opportunity. I am ignoring the wick because of the flash crash.I am drawing the TL from the bottom of the next candle which coincides with the close of the previous candle from the FC. Even though this line was drawn on the daily, it still has a nice appearance on the 4-hour. Today's dip bounced perfectly off the TL as it appears on the 4-hour. I would look for a return to this TL, and the eventual break. We will follow this market live.