4xpipcounter's trendlines

Have you found this thread helpful in learning to trade trendlines

  • Wow! I never thought it would be this good

    Votes: 30 83.3%
  • Yes, it was okay

    Votes: 3 8.3%
  • Not really, could see no benefit

    Votes: 3 8.3%
  • Dude! You were way off. This is terrible.

    Votes: 1 2.8%

  • Total voters
    36

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#51


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This is the EUR/JPY daily chart. In my previous post I was talking about how this TL is too steep and that you cannot deep upon it because of the potential of false breaks among other things. I didn't know it would happen this quick, but here's the proof.
We did not get a strong break on the other side of the TL. It just kind of defaulted on the other side, and then we got the move straight back up on the other side of the line.
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#52


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I might wear everyone out with the live action on the EUR/USD, but then the idea is to sink this stuff in deep, so it will become a tradeable reality.
Just a few hours ago I mentioned the candle hitting the TL below, and to watch for what side it finishes on. It finished on the north side, so I went long, and we set a stop one point below the bottom of the wick. Now you see ehat happens after the bounce off the TL.
Now, let's not only give some live action, but take a look into the crystal ball to see what is going to happen in the future.
First of all I have a TP set for that little line which marks the day's range for this pair, and that is 1.4378. I figure that to be a conservative TP.
There will be strong R at 1.4412. This is the intersection or apex of the monthly TL (maroon TL), and the rising TL which is the top of the channel in the uptrend. Therefore, we can expect to see a reversal somewhere in that area.
Just in case that area is broken, look for an extremely strong move to take it out. We should know before the week is finished what the status is concerning it.
 

kvram

Active Member
#53
dear 4x pip as shown in post no 50 chart of usd-jpy trend line drawn from ignoring wick due to flash crash ,in post no 51 eur-jpy chart daily (after flash crash) wick was taken to draw trend line , please explain any difference in approach. Thanking you.
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#54
dear 4x pip as shown in post no 50 chart of usd-jpy trend line drawn from ignoring wick due to flash crash ,in post no 51 eur-jpy chart daily (after flash crash) wick was taken to draw trend line , please explain any difference in approach. Thanking you.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Kvram, excellent question!
I posted both charts, and hopefully, the chartreuse lines will show the answer to your question. By drawing the lines from the dip on the USD/JPY, the TL has already been rendered ineffective. It just slices through the candles with no rhyme or reason. The EUR/JPY is holding up, but it will be corrected once I see that TL is ineffective.

In another post I mentioned that if the TL dies not maintain the basic properties that I outlined, then either it was drawn incorrectly, or it just needs to be redrawn. That will usually be the case when a TL exceeds 45 degrees. The correctly drawn TL will eventually have the strong break, then the correction back to it or near it, and then a continuation in the same direction it broke. That is what makes TL's such a high probability, low-risk type of trade.
 
#57
Ok. 4xpipcounter, I am a slowpoke and am still on lesson 1, but here's trying my hand at a trendline. Given below is the Nifty Futures 28Apr daily chart. By connecting the green candles on 11th and 25feb (?? are they the ones called pivots / turning points ?), we get a line which is going towards 5400. I connected the bottoms of the candles, and also tops, and both seem to be leading to almost the same place, and may intersect in 3-4 days. Please note that this is the chart of nifty futures.



Why have I mentioned 25th Feb? What is my problem then? The problem is that though the futures show a green candle, the underlying (i.e. the Nifty) itself shows a red candle for that date, so I am unable to reproduce the trendline in the chart of Nifty. Is there any other green candle in the Nifty chart that may be called the pivot and used to draw a trendline from 11th Feb ?



What does this anomaly (between the futures and underlying) signify ?
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#58
Sumi, I'll trade any TL break, but I may have confused the issue slightly in posting that chart. For the benefit of this thread, the main TL was hit, and that was the entry for the long.

FYI, the break of the top TL was tradeable, and considering how close together they were, it was predictable where was headed.

Personally, I did not trade that short, or break of that TL. I was waiting for the entry to go long at the next TL.

For further clarification, that top TL was only drawn for my personal gratification, as it gave me a good idea if the original TL was going to get hit.



hey 4x do you also trade counter trade in between trend line like this as you posted in image.
like what i am saying is have you short when it broke first trend line for the secand trend line as target, looking for more info from you.
 
Last edited:

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#59
Timepass, first the only way to address the anomaly is that it may have been a feeder error. One thing is clear, and that is it was a bear candle, in your case, a red candle. Regardless of the color of the candle, that still does not delegitimatize the TL. That is really the only thing you want to concentrate on.

Pivots or turning points? I don't know. I call them TL's.
Let me get a little more specific with regard to your question. After the dip and first swing low have been connected, the first hit on the TL is usually going to produce a reversal.
The other TL you drew, I do not see any usefulness of it. When I'm done here, I'll post another a chart which will show why I would drawe and upper TL in an uptrend.

Let me give you some good news in lieu of the fact you are a "slowpoke". If the only thing you grasp is lesson 1, you will make lots of pips or ticks on whatever market it is you trade, so let me review the simplicity of it:
1. Draw the TL from the dip to the swing low (vice versa in a downtrend.).
2. Make sure there is a strong break of the TL. If it is not, but the TL is broken, then redraw it.
3. After broken, wait for correction back to the TL or place it was broken.
4. Measure the recent swing high to the dip after the TL was broken, and that will be the minimum distance of the new trend.

If all you do is copy and paste the previous paragraph and live by it, then that is all you need to assimilate from this whole thread. Everyone viewing this thread will make lots of pips and ticks if that is the only thing you ever learned from this thread.

In the next post I'll explain why I like to draw the upper TL in an uptrend.


Ok. 4xpipcounter, I am a slowpoke and am still on lesson 1, but here's trying my hand at a trendline. Given below is the Nifty Futures 28Apr daily chart. By connecting the green candles on 11th and 25feb (?? are they the ones called pivots / turning points ?), we get a line which is going towards 5400. I connected the bottoms of the candles, and also tops, and both seem to be leading to almost the same place, and may intersect in 3-4 days. Please note that this is the chart of nifty futures.



Why have I mentioned 25th Feb? What is my problem then? The problem is that though the futures show a green candle, the underlying (i.e. the Nifty) itself shows a red candle for that date, so I am unable to reproduce the trendline in the chart of Nifty. Is there any other green candle in the Nifty chart that may be called the pivot and used to draw a trendline from 11th Feb ?



What does this anomaly (between the futures and underlying) signify ?
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#60
This chart comes from my earlier post. We see the candle hitting the TL, then bouncing off of it with a very strong move.

I wanted to show why I draw an upper TL, and for the benefit of this thread, I'm showing the rule, not the exception. (Keep in mind that if you always stick to the rule, you won't go wrong.)

I drew the TL from the first swing high. Not shown on this chart is how the market went sideways for quite awhile, before it resumed its UP. In drawing the TL from the swing UP, the only thing to do remember is to make it parallel to the TL that connects the dots (dip and swing low). So, in the future, if I draw any other type of line when not discussing, disregard it, or please ask a question.
The reason it is parallel is that it makes a channel. It gives an idea of upper R. The pair is headed to at least 1.4541, but if it is going to go higher, it would be nice to know its upper limits. After all 1.4541 is only the minimum expectation.

Later, I will talk about drawing an upper TL that is not parallel. They are also very helpful in determining upper limits, or possible accelerations.
 

Similar threads