BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

TELECOM was the star.

TELECOM gave a stunning performance today with a 2.32% gain on its index. Telecom Service industry took the roof out. We have RCOM in the daily buy above todays high of 156.00; RCOM has given a whopping 11.50% increase to its previous close and was the top gainer today on the index. The other 2 toppers today were again from the Telecom stable with IDEA gaining above 9% & BHARTIARTL gaining above 5%. BASIC MATERIALS Sector was the weakest with just 0.39% gains, most of the metals counters witnessed selling pressure.

There are few stocks which are long candidates above todays high. MARUTI above 1286.00 & AMBUJA CEMENT above 111.25. As markets are not in good health having swings along with the Global pendulum, keep risks at the lowest while taking long positions based on the daily chart.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Mr. Market to Jump in Joy. NIFTY likely to open gap up, though most of the shorts got covered in the previous session. The left out will scramble for exit and this will push the index farther away. Global cues are very strong on the bullish side.

G20 finance meet in Korea will give further direction. Japan has opened up strong. The best sectors today are ENERGY, our BPCL and HINDPETRO long calls are doing great and will move up further. UTILITIES & BASIC MATERIALS too will have a good run up.

We have a long entry in the Trend system above 5031.50(spot), this position is likely to be filled at higher levels, while stop remains the same at 4971.00. Risk will overshoot estimates, those having sufficient capital only shall trade long. Entries have to be made at appropriate trigger levels to extract the full potential of the system.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY gaps up close to a % and stays there, as we had written in our pre-market post, we have got our long position on the trending system filled at the opening levels. Risk on this long position will be just above 90 points and the position will be on hold till there is a reversal.

Swing trades do not have any long signal yet as the chart is in non-trend. Once the chart enters into trend then we wait for a pull back to value and only then there is permission to trade long.

A very strong reversal has come through after shaking trader confidence with a few high volatile whipsaw trades. We expect this trend to hold good for some days in a row, but again we wish to stress that nothing can be predicted in the market, it is only a probability.

Trading with the flow will reward in a rich way, so just follow your systems whatever it is, with discipline and rewards are guaranteed. Just fall in love with the market and you can fly smiling in your land of dreams.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY reaches for higher highs, swings system opens to trend. Wait for retracement to value before getting into the next joyful bull rally.

A note of caution at this point. With NIFTY breaching recent high of 5100 we find the main Indicators showing weakness, will this uproaring move the end of the bullishness giving a strong entry into the next bear phase. We are not sure at present, let the market unfold its wings, we shall hang on to which ever is stronger.

Trend long trade doing fine at present. Just be with the trend, do not count your chickens as they get hatched out. There will be give backs.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY is reaching higher high with every unfolding hour. Market is trending strongly, swing traders need to wait for retracement to value zone which is quite far away at 5042 on the latest closing price.

Patience pays always, so waiting is good.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY gives another higher high, but with a lower close. This shows that the market has rejected the highs which will bring the price down. With the value being far away, we need a correction to enter on the swing trade. This does not mean that for the sake of a trade entry in the swing side all the trend traders should suffer an emotional set back in prices.

We are referring to chart patterns here, which is of a higher probability. As we write we can see the market correcting. How much would be the retracement? We don't know, but lets be prepared for a swing trade once NIFTY reaches value zone and pulls up.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Yet another higher high on NIFTY today and again a rejection of price at high levels. Value zone moves up to 5059, still far away from current price. 5100 resistance has turned out to be a support zone at present. Slow and steady moves only give good trades, fast moves end with high volatility and erratic trades.

While the trend continues on a positive note, bearish divergence on MACD still persists. Keep holding to trend long positions. Stop remains same, our position has made a 40 point peak profit so far and has given back half of it, very generous isn't it?

 

[d_s_ramesh]

An inside bar with the highest close today. Value zone moves up to 5167, most of the component stocks of NIFTY are giving up the days gains. The number of trending stocks from the NIFTY component list on the hourly chart is at 34 which is 68% of NIFTY's strength, which shows that the trend is strong and likely to continue.

Meanwhile the bearish pattern on the hourly chart has gained further strength with a down tick bar. It is a wait and watch for trend trades while swing traders need to wait for retracement.

It was a smooth sail on the bullish side for the full session today. We are closing with a 30 points gain on our trend long position.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

One of the developments giving cheers today is the narrowing of spot/futures discount at advantage for the futures. This has made the profits look pretty today. NIFTY has closed above 5100 resistance and shows signs of gaining further.

And with that a strong bullish day on the NIFTY comes to an end. Global markets are doing strong, past opening.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

February plays again.

The daily chart of NIFTY mirrors the February pattern again. In February it was quite a prolonged trend, but now it is fairly short. Market has turned bullish without any bullish divergence. Then the uptrend gave a strong 400 point move, but will the same repeat again? The probabilities are lesser because the weekly charts have a very strong bearish divergence on all the indicators and along with that; the prolonged indecisive movement of the market has rendered the weekly into non-trending zone. Any market when it is non-trending will coil the averages. Daily charts will likely hit resistance at 5185 levels.

For today the daily chart turns to long trades above todays high, this is only if the high is taken off. On the other side if it does not breach todays high, short trade will continue. A similar move came on 31st May 2010. The number of stocks of the NIFTY component list strongly bullish today is 29, while the strongly bearish stocks are just 1 and the remaining in the neutral zone. 58% of the NIFTY components are bullish, gives a clear picture that the bullishness has quite good strength. This is according to todays chart patterns and readings. The immediate next session can change the scenario totally upside down.

As we write we are watching the US markets turning flat after a good take off, though it is too early to take decision of the US market now, we have just included this for the case of study. So, if you are going to trade your system with full trust, then you need to reverse the short position above todays high to long trade. The prevailing short trade will close with a small 85 points profit after having a peak of 400+ points gain, the same happened in February and it is a miracle that even then it was only 85 points profit. The only difference is that, in February swing traders got a chance to short and had also made some good gains while this time swing did not get any opportunity.

Hourly charts got filled into long position in the trend system on a gapped opening and has closed positive, while swing traders are waiting on the sidelines for their chance till the index retraces to value zone. The value zone on closing market price is at 5072, we expect the market to retrace to these levels in the next session and give an entry in swing trade. There are possibilities of a straight fall or a continued uptrend without reaching value zone, all are probabilities while we assume the most repeated pattern can happen.

Trend traders holding long from todays opening can continue holding their position till a reversal signal comes in. At present trend trades are not giving good results does not mean that it is not a worthy system. The present market is not having prolonged trendiness and hence we have smaller profits on the trend positions and large gains on the swing trades. If the market is in a strong like it was in the past year, the equation will tilt in favor of trend trades. So, having trades on both the systems will give an added edge to gain on both types of markets. With this we reveal a plain secret of position sizing & money management, we do not say that this is the ultimate, but this is also a secure way to trade in the markets.