BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

Crash.

Mr. Market is likely to get splashed with the blood of sober bulls in the next session. NIFTY which took to sleepy Bull Run on Friday registering nominal gains is going to witness a live episode of bulls running amok to cover their position on the opening bell. Europe closed weak while the US market has given a mother of all weakness on Friday. Major indices have closed shedding close to 4% of their values.

Our running long position on the hourly is likely to be butchered live. Traders holding long position on NIFTY hold to strict stop loss, as closing prices for us on Friday reflected strong bullish sentiment; short signals are awaited and are guaranteed below 10.00 am low. But, what would be the value of the market at those lows is anybodys guess.

With the weekly already in non-trend and now daily will follow when the long trade here gets closed. This gives us a warning that it is going to be a dangerously bumpy road ahead for the markets, at least until a new trend develops. We are likely to witness streaks of whipsaws in the hourly charts too.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Sector summary for weekend 4th June.

We have the FINANCIAL sector leading the pack with a 2.64% gain on its index closely followed by CONSUMER SERVICES at 2.56% and TECHNOLOGY with a 2.54% gains.

Public sector Banks, Leasing and Hire purchase along with Investment banking Industries were leaders in the FINANCIAL Sector. SBIN, RELCAPITAL & IDFC had strong performances to lift up this Index to the top with a 5% jump in their prices.

CONSUMER SERVICES Sector had the Food Produce and the Media Industry doing well with an above 4% gain on their Index values. JAGRAN & TV-18 gave above 10% gains followed by ZEEL with a 5% gain on its value. Hotels Industry group was weak this week.

On the TECHNOLOGY sector it was the stunning performance of the Computer software training Industrys 10.80% gain on its index that gave the real push to this Index. EDUCOMP had an above 14% gain followed by APTECH with a gain of above 8%. On the computer software Industry segment PATNI has given a robust performance with a 8% gain on its value. Apart from PATNI which is bullish yet, both the education stocks are moving up to value zone, which will offer a good opportunity to short.

The weakest sector this week was the BASIC MATERIALS Sector, whole of the metals pack is dragging this index down. A serious point to note here: Monday session is going to register further high level volatility on the bearish side in the Metal segment. Steel is the weakest here followed by Aluminum. Pig and Sponge Iron stocks have been belted out badly.

A brightly shining star in the BASIC MATERIAL sector is the Fertilizer industry which has recorded 5% gain on its index. With monsoon thunders roaring all around in the right time, agri-businesses will witness tremendous growth potential. The prominent stocks here like COROMANDEL, ZUARI etc., are sky rocketing into a strong bullish trend. Good monsoon means more agricultural produces will hit the markets in the future; this in turn is a relief to our wallets. The zooming vegetable prices will drop down to a considerable extent.

World Environment day is being celebrated by the UN today let us all make oath that we will make the planet which we live in shall be made more green in whatever way possible. There are various ways in which each person can contribute. One simple way is PLANT A TREE.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY hits air pocket

Mirroring global clues NIFTY hits air pocket taking off above 2% from its closing value on Friday. Hourly chart moves to bearish trade. Short NIFTY below 5004 spot with a stop of 5116.50 spot. This signal is for both swing and trend traders. Stop is quite far away due to the high volatility the market is in today.

If the trade is not filled, wait for next signals. Our long position on trend system gets exited below 5004 spot, losing close to 90 points plus commissions. Both weekly and Daily charts are out of trend, which means that the price would keep coiling between EMAs, so hourly charts will not have substantial moves unless a new trend develops.

But an advantage to keep trading your system is that when the market goes into trend it will be the hourly charts that will get the best out of the trend. Keep playing the market in safe mode, stick to strict stop losses, and keep risks within 2% of your capital. Even after a streak of losing trades you need to have the money power to trade the next signal. Money management gives you the staying power.

View both loss and gain in the same mentality, need not get emotional with losses, that is the expenses of this business.

Thank you.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Higher low

A higher low at these levels means lesser losses to the exiting long position and getting filled close to value zone for the next short trade. Hourly chart is trending, but this sudden change of direction if continued without renewed weakness of turning bullish will render the charts into the non-trending zone. Breach of low or good recovery should happen in the next few hours.

Exit long and short below 5015 on spot.

Stop loss for new short trade moves down to 5096.25 spot reducing risk to a considerable extent. Traders please give more importance to money management in these turbulent times. Adhere strict stop loss regime and low risk on trades. Full exposure on leverage will put your accounts into strong reactions leading to wipe outs when markets are volatile like we have now.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Shorts Filled

Shorts on NIFTY gets filled in both swing and trend systems after long exit with a loss of 70 points. Day low is yet to get snapped, EMAs closing in hold on to position till further signals get generated. Keep strict stop loss to exit on a adverse scenario.

We are with the flow..

 

[d_s_ramesh]

On its recovery path

NIFTY goes on its recovery path after getting the shorts filled. If there is a pull back and change of direction it will render the hourly charts too into a clear non-trend. We need to be out of the market till further developments. It is waste of energy to find an indecisive crowd.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

On NIFTY closing above 5051 spot at the end of this hour, please cover short positions on both trend and swing trades. Move to sidelines till the next trend emerges. Neither bulls nor bears have the strength to overpower each other. One of them should lose energy, only then there can be any trade on NIFTY.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY closed below our stipulated levels to keep off from short covering. Now the next level is a close above 5050, does not make much difference with the previous one. But, with the running bar market will close and what is in store for the next session is going to be a wild guess. Lot of factors determines the next direction.
Traders holding short position may continue holding it with strict stop loss management.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Comes to an end a dud session with no decision on its own for our market to move. US falls we fall along with them, if they rise we follow blindly not having any self realization. What happens to the values of the companies doing business here. They are producing & selling in India, but get valued according to the whims and fancies of the US markets, why is this chain link with the US markets. Not only us, the whole world does the same.

If this is the scenario here, in the US markets it is an entirely different story, they are at the mercy of the FED, which skins the traders alive there. Not only stocks, treasury, bonds, commodities including forex is manned by one single outfit 'FED'.

Though at times people like us make loads of money due to their same foolish mistakes, many a times we get struck. It is learning all the way, lets learn with every move about how to safeguard us to some extent from these catastrophes.

Thank you trader folks, keep a close watch of 5050 on the 10 am bar tomorrow.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Bearishness again

NIFTY turns bearish along with the global indices but, will it form into a trend? Chart formations show sideways range and it is likely to oscillate between 4950 and 5100 levels. European markets do not show strong weakness at present. Our market too after reaching opening lows pulled up quite a bit, there may be a reversal in the next session.

If there is a pull back, hourly charts too will go into non-trend. We are at present running short trades in both swing and trending systems, in case of a pullback both these positions will close at a loss. A close above 5050 on spot in the first hour will negate bearishness on the hourly charts. Then it will be a wait and watch situation till there is a new trend on the charts.

Markets globally are dancing to the tunes of financial turmoil; governments are scrambling for safety with new announcements every day. This has dampened investor sentiments worldwide. Volumes have been flat for most of last week showing lack of support either from bulls or bears.

Individual values of stocks do not have any impact on the present moves in the market, they are widely moving in line with their global peers. When markets are indecisive it is better to stay on the sidelines till there is some clear visibility of developments on the global arena.

Trend following systems will meet large number of whipsaw trades in these types of markets. On the other hand return to mean trading system will do well but, there is more of discretion than mechanics in the market. Traders holding short positions have a close watch on the markets and stick to stop loss levels with discipline.