Bull Zone

[sudoku1]

markets looks like poised to move up today, might breach 16k again today. time to review best course of action to be taken when the market is moving sideways between 15500- 16500.

A SIDEWAYS MKT IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN A TRENDING ONE........it keeps one on a tenterhook @ the start & when it seems a right time 2 enter.....it rattles the cart......

 

[aca_trader]

Inflation in india at 7%, i heard because of the decrease in import duty and export ban of edible oil prices have come down from 75 to 55 per kg, i have not seen this change yet in the grocery stores but might will be happy if this is true when i purchase groceries next month. i read india imports 45% of it's edible oil.

the reason for this post is , i don't know how many people believe in 7% inflation, and have no idea how it is calculated, per annum,weekly ,monthly. i believe it is calculated weekly on annualized basis. if someone goes to the grocery store, the minimum increase from past year is 20% and most of the items have gone up 40% from last year, then how come inflation is 7%.

i believe there are 435 items on the list. measuring commodity prices and that too wholesale prices is not the best way to guage, i do not know when the list was last reviewed based on today's needs. it will be a good idea for the govt to come up with better metrics , using Consumer prices and re-adjusting the weights.

There are several lists and CPI is computed seperately. This figure of 7% is of WPI.

Regards,
--Ashish

 

[aca_trader]

In 1996 i first came into tax bracket, so i was searching for "how to save on taxes", there were 2 options back then buy a LIC policy( i did buy one small premium) but that is a long term thing you will not get back the money any time soon, then the second option was National Savings Certificate, this will double your money in 6 yrs and you can get back money after that. i never heard mutual fund back then, of course chit(cheat) fund companies were there.

these days every one is buying mutual funds because mutual fund invsestments are also made tax exempt, back then they were not. i believe this tax exempt status for mutual fund investments is a recent change. so there is money supply into DII and this money supply has to make a difference in the stock market. what does a mutual fund manager lose if the fund does not perform ? it's people's money. Participatory notes are another thing so anyone can invest without even providing a name/address. stakes are very high all attempts will be made to keep the market up, IMHO.

The Public fund managers are interested in outperforming the market (Loosing lower than the benchmark) and not in giving poitive returns in falling markets.

 

[raosrinivas]

the DOW,NASDAQ and sp500 are just 5% above their yearly low. The correction is going to last probably year(s). The primary reason is no-one wanted to convert paper losses to real losses on their balance sheets. The way they do it is by closing the exit doors. it means you can buy stocks / investments but you can not exit/sell. many same-as-cash investments are no longer same as cash because of lack of liquidity. hedge-funds are not honouring redemption requests , their logic is it causes losses for everyone if positions have to be unwound, so it means they could unwind anytime they want, by halting redemptions indefinitely for years, all they need is unsuspecting innocent investors, who are going to buy into "attractive valuations", and these guys have money they can spin news onto different channels that this is the best time to buy if you are "long term investor" .

 

[uasish]

Alpha returns are elusive ,moreover for Long only Funds extremly non-conducive ambience,here the challenge is awesome for Retailers.For Big Funds, rebalancing the Asset class but for us either it is more Cash component or lowering Time frame or exploring Derivatives or Simply parking in Debt instruments.

 

[deepsa52]

Alpha returns are elusive ,moreover for Long only Funds extremly non-conducive ambience,here the challenge is awesome for Retailers.For Big Funds, rebalancing the Asset class but for us either it is more Cash component or lowering Time frame or exploring Derivatives or Simply parking in Debt instruments.

Yes, it is a difficult environment, with all the manipulations going on by many central banks. Many hedge funds are down this year. Even commodities had the biggest drop in years, but now seems coming back up.
Even the small to medium sized retail investors can diversify between asset classes using ETFs, there are hundreds of them and the list is growing everyday. One would need to choose a large deep discount multinational brokerage to get the bang for the buck.

Here is a list, but chances are it will get outdated in a week with so many of them coming in.

http://www.masterdata.com/HelpFiles/ETF_List.htm

MSN has a performance tracker for ETFs

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/etfperformancetracker.aspx

 

[raosrinivas]

After almost 4 months, of having no positions i finally bought a small position yesterday making the first buy this year. it is good to have opinions, markets have their opinions and we have to eventually respect the markets opinion. the game is not about being right or wrong, but what really matters is how much you made. on the brighter side, i did not lose anything by being out of market

 

[uasish]

Have to understand the new 'Short Selling' (stock lending) thing properly so that we can be most of the time be in the Mkt.

 

[deepsa52]

After almost 4 months, of having no positions i finally bought a small position yesterday making the first buy this year. it is good to have opinions, markets have their opinions and we have to eventually respect the markets opinion. the game is not about being right or wrong, but what really matters is how much you made. on the brighter side, i did not lose anything by being out of market

May be a few weeks to few months for the next drop. When consumers/credit cards start getting hit harder, it will get worse and should cause another round of world wide selling, just my guess. Fundamentals are as bad as it was few months ago.

 

[sivasankar78]

Don't worry Folks market market already break the trend line and its overbought now. The main problem is there is a gap which not yet filled in 4950. And Nifty have a strong support at 4850 and panic healthy support at 4920. And Aug to Dec market which is overbought and Jan to March market which is oversold. Now the 200 DMA has been crossed by the SMA. In FII's point of view market they ready to pulled up the market to next level. A bullish abandoned baby has be formed on 27-03-2008. It is an silent indicator to move upward trend. So investors and traders get in the market and book profit when ever you get chance.