I`ve officially started building some short positions as technically we have become overbought...
I dont predict the market as i am an intra day nifty future trader and i get away without taking an overnight risk in my trading books.
Well if another round of panic comes in form of Spain default, you will end up making lots of money.
But the problem in prediction (positional trades) is that your idea may be right but your timing can go wrong giving you a sizeable drawdown before trade reverses its course.
A big institutional trader can take sizeable drawdowns but a small trader like me will be handicap with unabsorbed losses in the trading account.
I think the real game is day trading with minimum risk exposure.
Day trading is undoubtedly the toughest game/profession in the world. The way we have been brought up (using left brain analysis/rational decisions) does not help either in day trading until and unless one 'retrain their brain'
You just never know- Nifty may go to 5500 and then come back to 5000 or straight away dives to 4800..god knows.
But yes one thing i know for sure- where ever it goes, it will give a range of 30-100 + points on every day basis to milk out some points in case if some one can master day trading.
I hope your shorts work out and good luck from my side.
Anything can happen !
One of my favourite quotes-
"Market can remain irrational till your account remains solvent" !