Charts for the Day

[macd]

it seems chart pattern is showing 'çup with handle', experts pls comment

 

[doss186]

Nifty is in correction phase of the bull move from 6825 to 8970. We may expect to expect the correction to end at 7285. It is second wave of a major bull move.

 

[ravi2126]

Anil'ji ,as per ur experience which is suitable MA OR EMA on hourly time frame ?

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Anil'ji ,as per ur experience which is suitable MA OR EMA on hourly time frame ?

Raviji,

Mostly trades are on daily TF, but still if i am looking on hourly, i nowadays prefer SMA's only...

Disclaimer: Earlier i used 100 EMA extensively on all timeframes...

But getting feel of different SMA's on single chart like 10/20/50/200 gives understanding of what price doing right now.

I mean if price is below 50 SMA while still holding 200 SMA tells me although intermediate is down, long term still up...so trade/invest accordingly...

Most important thing if you asked me is position sizing...you have to study on your charts what makes it different this time, else you will have same position sizing across all signals and it hurts...

For ex: suppose if goes long above 50 SMA and cut position if closing gets below it...Now here how 50 SMA is behaving is important, i mean is it rising, falling or going sideways...accordingly you need to allocate your capital...With falling 50 SMA and if prices closes above it, you cant go full on...

 

[Champion]

Dear Anil ji, you are posting very nice charts. I thank you for your efforts.
May I know which website are you using for these charts.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear Anil ji, you are posting very nice charts. I thank you for your efforts.
May I know which website are you using for these charts.

Earlier charts are from Metastock, nowadays i post charts from tradingview. Its a free site offering charts...

 

[mindgames]

Hi Anil,

Hope all well.

I'd like to pick your mind on a couple of issues:

1/ Selecting stocks: When there are multiple stocks with a similar setup/behaviour - how do you choose which stock to trade? eg. many PSU banks that shot up over the week and Private banks that fell sharply. In this case, which PSU banks would you buy among the numerous opportunities? - in other words how do you determine the likely better performers?

Personally, I find it very confusing as I strongly believe that we can't say which one will do better. Yet, I'd prefer one that would move faster/more. (Perhaps the ones with better PE?)

2/ Assessing performance: How do you assess your performance over time - whether you are doing well/need to improve. As returns may not be the correct criteria.

3/ Do you rely on any other factors other than technical charts for trade ideas? Any industry reports? My point is - how can we use technical analysis to only "TIME" an entry instead of as blindly relying on it.

Eg. monthly auto sales reports may flag a possible up/down turn in the stock's performance (earlier than quarterly results reaction). So we bring the stock to our ideas list and track it. Later, on getting a TA based green signal, we take the trade.

Unfortunately, unlike the US markets where we get reliable quarterly reports to give ideas as to which industry is 'expected' to perform well, India doesn't appear to have reports - at least free ones.

PS: others please feel free to pitch in as well.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Autos seems to be have taken hit since past month...Its batter to play safe here...only attempt those which are playing closer to weekly/monthly supports or closer to 200 SMA...

Rest dont try to catch falling ones...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Hi Anil,

Hope all well.

I'd like to pick your mind on a couple of issues:

1/ Selecting stocks: When there are multiple stocks with a similar setup/behaviour - how do you choose which stock to trade? eg. many PSU banks that shot up over the week and Private banks that fell sharply. In this case, which PSU banks would you buy among the numerous opportunities? - in other words how do you determine the likely better performers?

Personally, I find it very confusing as I strongly believe that we can't say which one will do better. Yet, I'd prefer one that would move faster/more. (Perhaps the ones with better PE?)

2/ Assessing performance: How do you assess your performance over time - whether you are doing well/need to improve. As returns may not be the correct criteria.

3/ Do you rely on any other factors other than technical charts for trade ideas? Any industry reports? My point is - how can we use technical analysis to only "TIME" an entry instead of as blindly relying on it.

Eg. monthly auto sales reports may flag a possible up/down turn in the stock's performance (earlier than quarterly results reaction). So we bring the stock to our ideas list and track it. Later, on getting a TA based green signal, we take the trade.

Unfortunately, unlike the US markets where we get reliable quarterly reports to give ideas as to which industry is 'expected' to perform well, India doesn't appear to have reports - at least free ones.

PS: others please feel free to pitch in as well.

Dear mindgames,

1/ Selecting stocks: When there are multiple stocks with a similar setup/behaviour - how do you choose which stock to trade? eg. many PSU banks that shot up over the week and Private banks that fell sharply. In this case, which PSU banks would you buy among the numerous opportunities? - in other words how do you determine the likely better performers?

Personally, I find it very confusing as I strongly believe that we can't say which one will do better. Yet, I'd prefer one that would move faster/more. (Perhaps the ones with better PE?)

Earlier i used to go for stocks having better relative strength among its peers. But since past few months, i learned one need to know whether stock is largecap/midcap/smallcap. Believe me those midcaps and smallcaps witness madness while largecaps are steady ones...

Few pointers i use,
1) Relative strength in same sector
2) How much stock rise/fall since making lows/highs
3) Look which category stock belongs too, i mean largecap or midcap
4) Technically i also look where price is in relation to 50/200 SMA. I mean if
three stocks hovering near 200 SMA is correction, while another one
corrected till 50 SMA, tells us this one is having less correction, also
looking at volume also tells us.I mean selling on above avg volumes is something serious, while below avg volumes raises chance of stock turning up in near future.

2/ Assessing performance: How do you assess your performance over time - whether you are doing well/need to improve. As returns may not be the correct criteria.

This one is where i am struggling as of now. What should be the parameters of performance. Index benchmark surely is one of them, but what about others. How i performed on risk/return matrix. Sometimes while cutting down positions is one sector results in overexposure to ones where i am already in. This creates imbalance. I am working on it. will surely reply on, searching for someone who knows better about this.

3/ Do you rely on any other factors other than technical charts for trade ideas? Any industry reports? My point is - how can we use technical analysis to only "TIME" an entry instead of as blindly relying on it.

Earlier i used to read reports from free ones available on google groups. Some sectoral reports are good for sector understanding, but stock reports are many times meant for distribution purpose only, atleast its my observation.

I had started to backtest CANSLIM like fundamental screening but it will take time. I think atleast it will cutdown some unwarranted names in watchlist. Also if one is unable to follow all criteria atleast %growth in Sales and profit are surely need to see. The growing ones always earn respect in market.

As you said getting a clue from monthly auto sales figures. But how we analyse pharma/energy/IT...etc..etc... This is one big question.

With better reading skills on various subject will get you good stock sometimes. But it is really painful to maintain that reading habit on regular basis on diverse subjects.

Let me tell you only thing i found good combination can be, is having a sound companies with good numbers. You may define yourselves. And then i switched to relative strength. And then looking at charts only. cutting all noise of newspapers/reports etc...

One strict rule i am following since Jan-2015 is never go for stock trading below 200 SMA, however good may be its fundamentals are...If at all i am trying to catch stock below 200 SMA at monthly supports then the risk will be on minimum side what i used to get in while stock is above 200 SMA...

The more i trade, more i think one need to have good set of rules for position sizing and risk management. Thats it...it will change your performance multiple times...

Just look out at your past trades, see what percentage position you allocated it to, is there possibility of position sizing...Many good traders say entry matters least and i am surely getting feeling of same...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear friends we are witnessing many structural changes in Economy, like demonetisation and GST is lines up in near future. Many analysts (if you follow them) need to revise their spreadsheets once guidelines are out. So play accordingly, nobody knows what is coming out of it. Even the government doesnt know. Demonetisation is good/bad i dont know, but surely its not a recipe for removing corruption. So government need to focus more on it. How to remove corruption practices from govt offices first...then catch big crocodiles and then small fishes... GST as it seems to be primafacie looking like a multiple layers and not a single tax structure as it was promised. So surely there are endless litigations coming in...In all these myriads i prefer my only source of investing....Charts....thats it whatever happen it will get reflect here...rest is immaterial to traders...

Many will laugh i am trying to write fundamental warning post, and my thread is purely technical. but i am commenting from what i am hearing these days. Buy this, buy that...Better buy and keep stoploss in place...