Daily Nifty Analysis

[Dusant]

Re: Daily Nifty Analysis for 26 Sep 06

Dusant (Dushyant),

Nice analysis, keep em coming. today NIFTY survived 3570.

Satya

Thank you Satya

 

[Dusant]

Daily Nifty Analysis for 27 Sep 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the chart, check the link below.
The purists among us will be extremely angry that the Nifty did not achieve the 3610 target. Does not matter. After all, the high was just 7 points away.
I am keeping a trailing stop of 3565 on the Nifty for long positions, as that coincides with two techniques. One is the 3568 intraday low, and the other is the rising trendline. Again people could question me saying that if I am so bullish on the market, then why keep such a tight stop?
Two reasons one is that my short term target is achieved, and the second is nothing prevents me from going long again at higher levels. For the present, my prime objective is to lock in my profits.
And take a new look at the Index, once this derivatives settlement is over tomorrow.
I am also marking out the stops which readers could adopt, depending on their own trading styles.

 

[jaykiru]

Thanks Dusant Sir,



Jay.

 

[sazza100]

I'm still unconvinced it will progress any further than 3600, and any weakness Monday/Tuesday of nxt wk, I may be tempted for shorting.

 

[amitt29]

Just as u wud try to keep trailin s/l while goin long u have to mantain these levels while shorting this market.

For thos who are adventourous they can short now with s/l of high of 3604.Risk is less reward is more.

On a shorter term basis,i wud short this market if it closes below 3550 consecutively.

 

[krizizbak]

For all friends who are having + positions in NF ... square up for sure if we close below 3565 on Tuesday (3rd October)

 

[Dusant]

Daily Nifty Analysis for 29 Sep 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the chart, check the link below.
The Nifty is still making a steady upward pattern. Normally, on a short term scale, this pattern is considered extremely bullish, but not so after a steady rise.
There is not much more to add from Thursdays analysis. I still remain long. I had actually expected that my stop would be triggered. I was actually surprised that it was not. And from the pattern, the market is showing, it could go anyway.
I repeat, the market is not yet giving any signs of weakness, so why buck the trend and go short. Only die hard gamblers would attempt shorts at this point. Let the Nifty confirm weakness with a lower top and bottom, and shorting would be less riskier.
Dusant

 

[Czar]

but sir IMHO is'nt rising wedge a typical bearish pattern, & if so we are standing on the corner of the wedge ??

 

[Dusant]

Hello Czar,

Before I respond to your comments, please allow me to stress that the chart being analysed is an hourly chart, and hence, we should look at it from the hourly perspective, rather than an end of day vision.

Yes I agree that when you call it a rising wedge, its a bearish pattern. We had a similar discussion in this very same thread, about typical patterns. These type of patterns appeared all over the place, in 1999 - 2000, and trapped bears.

I distinctly remember the NASDAQ 100 also showing a similar pattern before the dot com frenzy.

What would you then call them? Failures?

What is actually important is to know three very simple things.

• The market can do three things - go (i) up (ii) down or (iii) sideways.

• Plan your trade according to the probability.

(i) Have a safety net or backup plan.
(ii) Answer two simple questions​

(a) What if I am right?
(b) What if I am wrong?​

• Trade your plan.

I am still betting on the probability of a bullish index, and have kept an appropriate stop, as mentioned in my earlier posts. I am also prepared to use any dips to go long, after checking the technical position, as and when it arises.

Most important - Trade Happy. You tend to make less mistakes.

Dusant

 

[kannamthanam]

Most important - Trade Happy. You tend to make less mistakes.

absolutely on the dot.......couldn't have put it any better....cheers