Day Trading Futures

[Gandhar.]

today volumes less than avg in bnf & NF?

 

[Gandhar.]

same here but with BNF.. was long @ 11145 and got out @ 50.. was short @ 11192 and got out @ 82.

scalping???

 

[a1b1trader]

Didnt able to cross over 6250 for the whole day
Just in the closing hours, closed above 6350 and reached 6260
But again unable to cross 6365-70

Now let us see what happens today.
If able to cross and sustain over 6365-70 then
We can see 6400-10

Use proper SL/TSL

We can see 6400 NF as mentioned above
But keep strict SL 6360/55
If falls below 6355
Can see lower levels

 

[manishchan]

scalping???

Hehe.. naaa.. yesterday's loss is still on mind. Need to get over it

 

[TradeJoker]

flirt bnf

 

[Smart_trade]

Seniors and friends,

Need advice on this,

How can we calculate annual projected returns with expectancy?

Winners % : 35

Loosers % : 65

R:R : 2.5:1

Expectancy = ( Probability of win X Average win ) - ( Probability of loss x
average loss )

Expectancy = 1/100[(35 X 2.5) - (65 X 1)]

Expectancy = 22.5/100

Expectancy = 0.225

So, suppose I take 4 - 5 trades a day on average and 20 trades per week and 1000 trades per year, what is the projected return per 1000 trades?

Can some one help out here? I need to calculate projected return per year for my new day trading system and compare it with my swing trading system.

The success rate of 35 % is low. Good systems have 45-65 % success rate. With 35 % success rate, out of 10 trades 6 will be wrong, it will be taxing on mind to trade such a system though the reward to risk of 2.5 is good.

ST

 

[Gandhar.]

We can see 6400 NF as mentioned above
But keep strict SL 6360/55
If falls below 6355
Can see lower levels

and for shorters?

 

[Tlahuicole]

The success rate of 35 % is low. Good systems have 45-65 % success rate. With 35 % success rate, out of 10 trades 6 will be wrong, it will be taxing on mind to trade such a system though the reward to risk of 2.5 is good.

ST

Yeah ST completely agree, this is not tradeable until and unless I am able to digest the drawdowns it gives. I checked this system for 2012 alone, because you remember 2012 July August and December market was sideways most of the times.

There were two cumulative drawdowns nearing 10R which is also bad, because my risk per trade is 2.5% and one such drawdown I am down by 25% of initial capital. One interesting thing is this system is winners 2.5 times loosers suppose I have three wins in a row an 10 R loss I will be able to withstand that draw down as it will be 10R - 7.5R = 2.5R = 6.25% drawdown.

For using this system to be used efficiently, I need to backtest it for two more years may be three years so that I will have confidence to follow it through out first year of trading to see its results

I am currently using another system where win:lose ratio is 1:1 and R:R is 1.951:1 :thumb:, this suits better till I back test the former system.

disadvantage of above, It has given 16R drawdown in 2010 and 20R drawdown in 2012 as per back testing. Not sure how I can digest this .

My goal is to design a system and follow MM rules I will not have more than 10% drawdown even at worst conditions. But I, also don't want to risk below 2.5%.

 

[a1b1trader]

and for shorters?

If move above 6385
So 6385

 

[pratapvb]

Yeah ST completely agree, this is not tradeable until and unless I am able to digest the drawdowns it gives. I checked this system for 2012 alone, because you remember 2012 July August and December market was sideways most of the times.

There were two cumulative drawdowns nearing 10R which is also bad, because my risk per trade is 2.5% and one such drawdown I am down by 25% of initial capital. One interesting thing is this system is winners 2.5 times loosers suppose I have three wins in a row an 10 R loss I will be able to withstand that draw down as it will be 10R - 7.5R = 2.5R = 6.25% drawdown.

For using this system to be used efficiently, I need to backtest it for two more years may be three years so that I will have confidence to follow it through out first year of trading to see its results

I am currently using another system where win:lose ratio is 1:1 and R:R is 1.951:1 :thumb:, this suits better till I back test the former system.

disadvantage of above, It has given 16R drawdown in 2010 and 20R drawdown in 2012 as per back testing. Not sure how I can digest this .

My goal is to design a system and follow MM rules I will not have more than 10% drawdown even at worst conditions. But I, also don't want to risk below 2.5%.

is it a positional system?

my take is that intraday one should do an MM of 1% and for positional can increase it to 2-2.5% of the capital

if you want to be more aggressive it is better to risk some additional % of the accumulated profits