Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Re: Ambuja Cements

Daily
Ambuja Cements was supposed to be a short position from last Thursday. In fact, I had a position in the stock on Thursday, which I covered yesterday. I will re-enter again at a slightly higher price from yesterday's close.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. But 3ema every day since Thursday is coming down, which means trend is changing. If 3ema tomorrow manages to close above yesterday's 3ema, we will have to exit the position and wait. 15ema stands at 210.

15ema in 30 mins stands 215.5. This should be the entry price.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 209.90. This is the short term target. If the price touches this on Monday morning, this will change to a wait and watch, since tenken always serves as a short term support. If tenken is taken down, kijun stands at 199, which serves as a strong support. This is also in line with the medium term support lines drawn from 11th October 2012.

Patterns
Lower High Lower Low: Indicates the change of trend.



Weekly
Weekly shows a double top formation already completed.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. 3ema stands at 210, which concides with 15ema of daily. Nothing to infer here.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 199, which coincides with the Kijun of daily. This again indicates a strong support for the stock.

Patterns
RSI: Overbought and almost double top formation.



Monthly
Monthly shows the two month candle trying to take out the top, 222.4, which failed.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 180. Nothing to infer here. This is a worst case scenario for the global market where the stock can go before turning around.

Patterns
RSI: Overbought

Finally target achieved. The cloud top in daily has formed a support for this stock now. Tenken in weekly will also form a support.

There could be a bounce back to touch tenken (209). This bounce back can be treated as a mild correction to the bearish trend (Chikou span is still below the cloud).

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Asian Paints

Daily
Asian paints on an unexpected day rose from 3800 to 4200 in a single day, though it managed to return back to the same price next day. But whenever a spike like this happens, it is an indication that the future price of this stock is bound to touch the spike high. This spike happened in May 2012, and it got touched again last week.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. Nothing to infer here.

15ema in 30 mins stands 4141. This should be the entry price.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 4020. This is the short term target. If the price touches this on Monday morning, this will change to a wait and watch, since tenken always serves as a short term support. If tenken is taken down, kijun stands at 3983, which serves as a strong support.

Patterns
Bearish Harami: Indicates the change of trend.



Weekly
Weekly shows a double top formation already completed.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact. 3ema stands at 4008, which is very near the 15ema of daily (4000). Nothing to infer here.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 3822. This will be a short term support. Nothing to infer here.

Patterns
RSI: Overbought and almost double top formation.



Monthly
Monthly shows the double top formation.

315:
3ema is still above 15ema, which means bullish trend intact.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 3545. Kijun is flat so we could see the price of 3545 in the next 2 to 3 months.

Patterns
Double top formation

Multiple targets achieved. Cloud top in daily has formed support for the price action. There can be a bounce back from here till Tenken (4040). However Chikou span has not cut below the price action, so bearish trend has not yet started in daily.

Weekly Kijun not touched, but could form a support. Weekly Tenken stands at 3983, so this should be the first target for bounceback followed by the second target of 4040 (daily tenken).

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: HCL Technologies

Daily
A large red bar has swallowed some 6 candles of the past. If you combine all the swallowed candles, we see a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating trend reversal.

315:
3EMA is still above 15EMA. Once 3EMA goes below 15EMA, bearish trend will be confirmed.

Ichimoku:
Nothing to derive from tenken and kijun. Chikou span is still above the price action indicating bullishness. But even if price manages to come down 30 points, the chikou span will stay above the price action indicating bullishness not broken. So we will need to see weekly and monthly data for the targets.

Patterns
Enhanced bearish engulfing pattern.



Weekly
Weekly shows big hanging man with overbought RSI. So trend is downwards.

315:
Nothing to infer here. Last time 15EMA was touched was in July 2012.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 584, so this should be the target for the shorts. Kijun is flat, which means the price action has to move towards tenken.

Patterns
Hanging man this week confirms trend reversal.



Monthly
Monthly shows the stock still in the overbought zone. So there is more downside 3 to 4 months down the line.

315:
3EMA (593.5) left in monthly. This could mean that 593 can be met this month itself. But this is not mandatory. 3EMA can stay untouched for 2 months also.

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 525. So we can expect this price to be touched in Dec 2012 or Jan 2013. Who knows, the tenken can move a little upwards too.

Patterns
Hanging man following a big white bar, supported by overbought RSI indicates trend reversal. But there are still days to go this month, so hanging man can become invalid.

Daily chart shows a sign of wanting to make a double top formation, while weekly still shows downside with target of 589.

So chances are that a spike will be made in the next two days to make a double top again before resuming its downtrend.

 

[kalpana09]

Re: Maruti

You cannot rely on fixed targets. The values keep changing every day. In two days tenken has moved from 1412 to 1464 in daily.



Weekly tenken stands at 1340 with Kijun attempting to form a flat trend, which indicates that price will move towards tenken sen. However daily kijun (1411) has to be broken for this target to be achieved. Weekly oversold RSI supports more downside.

Monthly 3ema stands at 1391, so for now we will focus only on 1400 target. Once this is reached, we decide the new trend after looking at the charts.

maruti suzuki:

today bearish spin appeared in candlestick charts

roc indicator shows down

what is your opinion?

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Maruti

maruti suzuki:

today bearish spin appeared in candlestick charts

roc indicator shows down

what is your opinion?

RSI:
Maruti is overbought in daily, weekly and nearly in monthly. So going short is better.

3EMA:
In monthly 3EMA left. The candle has to always touch 3EMA to continue its trend, else it will revert to a certain price so that the candle touches 3EMA. 3EMA in monthly is 1422. Low of the month is 1434.

Double top:
Monthly:
1586 is the price that will create a double top in monthly. So if Maruti is poised for double top formation, this could be an issue. Nifty being at the lower end of the trend, any bounce back could push this stock to form this double top. Hence go short with a strict stoploss, say 1520.

Also if 1586 gets touched, 3EMA will also get touched.

Weekly:
Weekly also shows double top formation even though the stock is overheating.

However, Weekly Tenken and Kijun shows low probability of the stock going up. I would prefer you go short with strict stop loss. Tenken in weekly is 1369, with kijun flat indicating price has to touch Tenken.

All in all, we can go short with strict stop loss of 1520. And then wait till 1550 because going short with more lots.

 

[trade4putuval]

Daily
Nifty stopped short of daily support. See the image below

315:
3EMA below 15EMA has confirmed bearish trend.

50 SMA:
Price has moved below 50SMA (See black line in chart), which is a key indicator of long term trend. But we have to wait and watch this because if you look at the past, the price has managed to jump back above 50 SMA within the next two days. If that doesn't happen, the trend is confirmed. At the moment, nifty has moved below 50 SMA, so if it doesnt manage to close above 50 SMA, we may see more downside.

Ichimoku:
Nothing to derive from tenken and kijun. Chikou span is below the price action indicating bearishness. But even if price manages to climb 100 points, the chikou span will stay below the price action indicating bearishness not broken. So we will need to see weekly and monthly data for the targets.

Price has entered the cloud, so technically, once the price enters the cloud, it has to touch the other side of the cloud before a meaningful bounceback. So if this happens, 5500 will be the next target if the support lines are broken.

On the other hand, if price manages to bounce back from the support line, and if the trend is a false trend, the top of the cloud will form the resistance. So if at all, you have gone long, you exit the trade and wait for the price to cross above the cloud to re-enter longs again.

Patterns
Support lines drawn from the previous lows.



Weekly
Weekly shows the beginning of the trend downwards, but ...

315:
15EMA finally touched last week. This could indicate a bounce back.

Ichimoku:
Tenken touched and not broken. This could act as a support for the price, and there can be a bounce back from here.

Patterns
Just crossed below the overbought zone in RSI. If at all, there is a bounce back, the resistance line drawn from the previous high to the recent highs, shows a resistance of the price at 5750.



Monthly
Monthly shows nifty still in bullish mode.

315:
3EMA left in monthly, last month. This looks like the fall last week was intended for the price to touch 3EMA, which happened on Friday!

Ichimoku:
Tenken stands at 5292. This is very far, there are many supports along the way, so looking at the candle shape, the fall in nifty looks like a mild correction in the bullish wave.

Patterns
The shape of the candle looks a little odd, so it could be either a long red candle downwards or a white candle upwards. Let's see!

Daily:
Support lines still holding!
50SMA: 3 candles below 50 SMA. Close above 5640 crucial for mild trend reversal.

Weekly:
Last support is 5528 (Cloud support on the left side of the chart). If this is taken out, there is no stop till 5287 (Kijun in weekly), though there is a brief support in daily at 5490 (Cloud bottom).

Monthly:
Check Patterns section in Monthly in my quote.

Today it should be a no-trade day or go long with stop loss of 5528. Close above 5640 will rewards the long traders.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Asian Paints

Multiple targets achieved. Cloud top in daily has formed support for the price action. There can be a bounce back from here till Tenken (4040). However Chikou span has not cut below the price action, so bearish trend has not yet started in daily.

Weekly Kijun not touched, but could form a support. Weekly Tenken stands at 3983, so this should be the first target for bounceback followed by the second target of 4040 (daily tenken).

The candle has stopped at the top of the cloud. It is either a bounce back or cut into the cloud till the bottom of the cloud (3756).

Only pacification for long traders is Tenken is above, and Kijun is flat (price has to touch tenken).

Altogether, this stock has become a high risk trade due to mixed views.

 

[trade4putuval]

Mahindra and Mahindra

Not ready for analysis! But good for short trade.

• Overbought in Daily
• Highly Overbought in Weekly
• Yesterday's high touched the resistance line in weekly.

 

[trade4putuval]

Daily:
Support lines still holding!
50SMA: 3 candles below 50 SMA. Close above 5640 crucial for mild trend reversal.

Weekly:
Last support is 5528 (Cloud support on the left side of the chart). If this is taken out, there is no stop till 5287 (Kijun in weekly), though there is a brief support in daily at 5490 (Cloud bottom).

Monthly:
Check Patterns section in Monthly in my quote.

Today it should be a no-trade day or go long with stop loss of 5528. Close above 5640 will rewards the long traders.

So rewards have gone to those who dared to trade long!

But I am still skeptical about nifty long trend. Following reasons:

• 50 SMA still not broken:
  5642 is new 50 SMA. 4 candles below 50SMA. In history, I could not find any trend that stayed around 50 SMA for so long and continue to cross into the other side of 50 SMA. Also note, I am talking with reference to cross over inside the cloud, though instances of crossover like this outside the cloud was also very rare.
  
  There is one instance in April 2012, when the candle managed to cross into the other side, but since the cloud top was above it, it was pushed down below 50 SMA the next day. At the moment, the cloud top is also around the same price, i.e. 5642.
  
• Cloud top Resistance:
  As mentioned above, the cloud top stands at 5645. If this is broken, then we will see a strong rally.
  
• 15EMA:
  15EMA is also equal to 50SMA. So as per 315, it is pyramid-add for nifty shorts. Those who are already short from the moment, 3EMA crossed below 15EMA, this is a chance to add more lots to their existing short positions.

So strategy should be book profit at 5642, wait till EOD and check if 5650+ is a deciding close for the day.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Asian Paints

The candle has stopped at the top of the cloud. It is either a bounce back or cut into the cloud till the bottom of the cloud (3756).

Only pacification for long traders is Tenken is above, and Kijun is flat (price has to touch tenken).

Altogether, this stock has become a high risk trade due to mixed views.

So Asian paints did bounce back from the cloud top, but was kept in check by 50SMA. Crossover about 50 SMA will now take this stock to Tenken (4015).

In weekly, the candle shape looks a bit confusing for me. After a bearish piercing pattern (open above close of previous candle and closed around 75% of previous candle), the current candle looks a bit odd. We got two days more, but does this stock have enough juice to cancel the bearish pattern, I am doubtful. So what I see in weekly is revisit of the previous low, 3850. So if you are already long or plan to go long, keep strict stop loss.