Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Finally, the market broke lose above 50 SMA. But now we have resistance at 5749 both in daily and weekly, which has to be broken for a good ride! However, in the middle of the day, there could be a dip since 30 mins RSI is showing extremely overbought situation.

Another point to note, if the global market is not stable, RSI of nifty stops between 50 and 60 and takes its ride downwards. Current RSI stands at 50.4.

Tenken in daily now stands at 5623 and kijun is flat. Chikou span has not yet crossed over the price action, though it stands kissing the price action.

Based on these points, one can go short near 5745 with SL of 5775.

today we will see red/green??

So long as it trades below 5749, it is red. Any close above this zone, triggers bullishness.

 

[trade4putuval]

Nifty

Wow, what a ride nifty made! Let's see who won!

• Support lines drawn from previous lows. Support won!
• Cloud top broken. Ichimoku cloud won!
• 50 SMA barrier. 50 SMA lost!

Now what! Daily stands at almost double top, but then in weekly (see chart below marked by arrows), we see two resistance points one indicated by a higher top and another by the previous ichimoku cloud top. This could be a potential target for nifty cooling down, supported by an overheated RSI (Remember this is weekly chart).

So trend is up. But 30 minutes in google/finance shows overheating to a tune of 50 to 70 points. So please keep this in mind too, while trading. Also, google/finance is tuned for Bollinger band.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Nifty

Daily:
For today, focus on 3EMA. 3EMA has not touched since the past two days. So price has to touch 3EMA as per 315 correction strategy. 3EMA stands at 5843.
Also, "3EMA left" indicates profit taking by 315 traders. So there could be a small fall from the current price till the 3EMA is touched.

Alternatively, if yesterday's low is not taken out, the HH-HL will continue, which indicates the continuity of the current long trend. Also, if there is a large spike upward, 3EMA will move up to touch the low of the day, thereby invalidating the 315 correction strategy.

In 30 minutes, nifty has cooled down, so chances of more downside is limited at the moment. So we target only 5843 for now, and decide the next trend at the end of the day!

Weekly:
Overbought zone continues. This looks like an evening star formation, where the large white candle will be followed by a doji this week, followed by a heavy fall next week. This will however be invalidated if there is a major movement this week.

3EMA (5812) left in weekly. But this has less significance since it is the first week where 3EMA has left.

Tenken in weekly, Tenken in daily and Kijun in daily all stands at the same price, 5716, which indicates a strong support if nifty falls.



Note: I will not be able to post for the next one week, since I will be travelling to my native place.

 

[trade4putuval]

Got time to message today!

Final target, 5936 indicating double top formation. Should start shorting here!

 

[prabhsingh]

Got time to message today!

Final target, 5936 indicating double top formation. Should start shorting here!

Kindly can you post the chart displaying double top formation?

 

[trade4putuval]

Kindly can you post the chart displaying double top formation?

Visit www.chartink.com and check it yourself. It is very simple and can be easily seen with naked eye!

 

[trade4putuval]

What is nifty trying to say!!!! Since the past two to three days, it is consolidating in a tight range. But on a big picture, I see deeply overbought zones in daily and weekly.

Patterns:

• HHHL/LHLL: Yesterday, the HHHL range was broken with a LHLL range. Could this be an indication of the trend reversal!!!!
  
• Double top formation: This has become a headache for TAs. Because of this pattern, we are not able to visualize the next level for nifty. Double top formation is now visible in daily, monthly and weekly. So now 5949 is the last straw for nifty. If this is broken, nifty can range towards new highs. But RSI does not justify the juice required for this uptrend!!!

Strategy:

• Weekly
  This is the second week where 3EMA has not been touched. As per the definition of 3EMA, price has to retrace to touch the 3EMA. We can see a price movement till 5885 in order for the 3EMA to be touched. 3EMA however is 5869.
  
  Ichimokuwise, no reliable indicators or it is too early to predict anything based on ichimoku!
  
  
• Daily
  A cluster is beginning to form in daily. Ichimokuwise, kijun is beginning to flatten out, indicating price retracement to tenken sen (5786). Looking at the overbought nature, this price looks realistic.

Note: Still in vacation, Got some time to analyze today. Will keep posting like this till I am back home!

 

[trade4putuval]

What is nifty trying to say!!!! Since the past two to three days, it is consolidating in a tight range. But on a big picture, I see deeply overbought zones in daily and weekly.

Patterns:

• HHHL/LHLL: Yesterday, the HHHL range was broken with a LHLL range. Could this be an indication of the trend reversal!!!!
  
• Double top formation: This has become a headache for TAs. Because of this pattern, we are not able to visualize the next level for nifty. Double top formation is now visible in daily, monthly and weekly. So now 5949 is the last straw for nifty. If this is broken, nifty can range towards new highs. But RSI does not justify the juice required for this uptrend!!!

Wow :clap: Nifty broke 5949 but as I said it did not have the juice to go up further. :thumb: Looking at the range, it looks like a doji in daily. Chartink will be updated in the evening. Will check the chart again and provide the updates.

Strategy:

• Weekly
  This is the second week where 3EMA has not been touched. As per the definition of 3EMA, price has to retrace to touch the 3EMA. We can see a price movement till 5885 in order for the 3EMA to be touched. 3EMA however is 5869.
  
  Ichimokuwise, no reliable indicators or it is too early to predict anything based on ichimoku!
  
  
• Daily
  A cluster is beginning to form in daily. Ichimokuwise, kijun is beginning to flatten out, indicating price retracement to tenken sen (5786). Looking at the overbought nature, this price looks realistic.

Weekly 3EMA finally touched :clap:. Today made low of 5865 before recovering to close at 5898. Now only concern is that nifty tried to make a morning star pattern in 30 minutes, which could see nifty trying to go up again before resuming its downtrend, first target of 5786.

 

[trade4putuval]

Hi all,

Beware of the double top value or yesterday's high! If this is taken out, no point staying in short position.

I am still confused with the prolonged overheated status of nifty!

Let's see!!!

 

[prabhsingh]

Hi all,

Beware of the double top value or yesterday's high! If this is taken out, no point staying in short position.

I am still confused with the prolonged overheated status of nifty!

Let's see!!!

Which is 5965.