Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Wow :clap: Nifty broke 5949 but as I said it did not have the juice to go up further. :thumb: Looking at the range, it looks like a doji in daily. Chartink will be updated in the evening. Will check the chart again and provide the updates.



Weekly 3EMA finally touched :clap:. Today made low of 5865 before recovering to close at 5898. Now only concern is that nifty tried to make a morning star pattern in 30 minutes, which could see nifty trying to go up again before resuming its downtrend, first target of 5786.

Short term target achieved. 3EMA in weekly touched yesterday.

Hi all,

Beware of the double top value or yesterday's high! If this is taken out, no point staying in short position.

I am still confused with the prolonged overheated status of nifty!

Let's see!!!

Overheated status worked!




Now what! Check the weekly charts!

The support lines drawn from recent lows and the "the ichimoku step" meets at 5749, which should be the point from which nifty should bounce back if the global situation looks good. Else we can see 5300!

But then it could be a free fall, which could result in the price touching the support line as early as 5654, else it will be a gradual phase! Either way, the range of 5654-5749 forms the area for a suitable bounce back depending on the week.

However, weekly overheating still continues! Daily overheating continues, but daily 15EMA (5833) touch could see a minor bounce back on the cards!

 

[timepass]

If imgur.com is not working, try www.tinypic.com

 

[trade4putuval]

If imgur.com is not working, try www.tinypic.com

Thanks! Please check the post now! It stands corrected!:cheers:

 

[trade4putuval]

Now what! Check the weekly charts!

The support lines drawn from recent lows and the "the ichimoku step" meets at 5749, which should be the point from which nifty should bounce back if the global situation looks good. Else we can see 5300!

But then it could be a free fall, which could result in the price touching the support line as early as 5654, else it will be a gradual phase! Either way, the range of 5654-5749 forms the area for a suitable bounce back depending on the week.

However, weekly overheating still continues! Daily overheating continues, but daily 15EMA (5833) touch could see a minor bounce back on the cards!

As mentioned, 15EMA touched and there was a minor bounce back. But today nifty looks like a bullish piercing pattern. Tenken stands at 5902. So it could be either a bounce till 5902, or an attempt to form a double top again before the fall begins. I am not sure!

Weekly still shows downside, but then next week could again be a small candle with long ends. So we get another shorting opportunity if 5940 is taken.

Strategy would now be to take minimum lots at 5902, check if 5940 will be taken and add more lots later. 30 minutes shows 5902 is max, nifty can go. I would prefer to take on more lots at this price, but it is too early to decide!!!

 

[trade4putuval]

Now what! Check the weekly charts!

The support lines drawn from recent lows and the "the ichimoku step" meets at 5749, which should be the point from which nifty should bounce back if the global situation looks good. Else we can see 5300!

But then it could be a free fall, which could result in the price touching the support line as early as 5654, else it will be a gradual phase! Either way, the range of 5654-5749 forms the area for a suitable bounce back depending on the week.

However, weekly overheating still continues! Daily overheating continues, but daily 15EMA (5833) touch could see a minor bounce back on the cards!

As mentioned, 15EMA touched and there was a minor bounce back. But today nifty looks like a bullish piercing pattern. Tenken stands at 5902. So it could be either a bounce till 5902, or an attempt to form a double top again before the fall begins. I am not sure!

Weekly still shows downside, but then next week could again be a small candle with long ends. So we get another shorting opportunity if 5940 is taken.

Strategy would now be to take minimum lots at 5902, check if 5940 will be taken and add more lots later. 30 minutes shows 5902 is max, nifty can go. I would prefer to take on more lots at this price, but it is too early to decide!!!

I guess we are almost there. Shorting can start anytime! Let's see!

 

[trade4putuval]

I guess we are almost there. Shorting can start anytime! Let's see!

Who did not make money this time!!! :lol:


My analysis for next week to follow!! :thumb:

 

[trade4putuval]

Daily
As expected, and as per my post on 14th December, nifty started following. Now what!!!

See the daily chart below

315:
Spot closed below 15EMA, which means bounceback had been ruled out as per 315 (though it is too early to say, since close above 15EMA on Monday will bring the bounceback trend back on).3EMA and 15EMA now has a difference of only 16 points. If 3EMA crosses below 15EMA, bearish trend will start!

50 SMA:
50SMA stands at 5741(Not in the chart), which is a key indicator of long term trend.

Ichimoku:
I think Kijun is the target for Nifty now. Kijun will form a decent support for nifty, before there is a meaningful bounceback. Kijun stands at 5756, which matches with 50 SMA (both together indicating a strong support for nifty. Even if nifty manages to reach this level, Chikou span stays above the price action, indicating bullishness.

Cloud support stands at 5662. If chikou span closes below the price action, the next target will be 5662, 5575. Cause for concern is the thickness of the cloud. The cloud is very thin, which means not a very strong support, and it could be a breach below the cloud as well. RSI RULES OUT THIS POSSIBILITY.

Patterns
Double top formation passed and nifty is on the way down.
Support lines drawn from previous lows match with kijun and 50SMA, which indicates a very strong support of 5760.




Weekly
Weekly shows the beginning of the trend downwards. Ichimoku step and double top formation guided this down trend.

See the weekly chart below

Legends:
Red Lines: Strong resistances and support
Dark Green Lines: Resistance line from recent highs
Blue Lines: Support lines from recent lows
Canary Blue Lines: Lines drawn along tenken sen.

315:
15EMA stands at 5693, a strong 315 support for bounceback.

Ichimoku:
Tenken sen stands at 5756, that matches with 50SMA of daily, Kijun of daily and daily support line. Another reason for a very strong support at 5760.:thumb:

If this support is broken, check the red arrow. It takes you all the way to 5300 (Check monthly comments for this range).

Patterns
Nearly hanging man last week indicating beginning of downtrend.
Support lines drawn from recent lows interspected with line drawn from Tenken sen meets the same price range as indicated by weekly tenken sen.



Monthly
Monthly shows hanging man pattern for this month, but month has not yet ended.

315:
3EMA left in monthly, this month. 3EMA stands at 5779. Should I explain again this value with respect to daily, weekly !!!!!

Ichimoku:
Kijun is flat indicating price movement towards tenken sen.Monthly Tenken stands at 5327. Before that we have Kijun at 5449.

Patterns
Hanging man in monthly, but month has not ended yet!

 

[jamit_05]

All said and done the trendline holds the key. If it breaks then sideways action will happen or a run for 5600, which is a Prev weekly top and a weekly bottom.

Expiry week coming up. So there will be quite a few dull days.

It is also seen that Jan often reverses all the work of Dec. Has happened most of the times over the last 7 years.

regards.

PS: You trade purely 315... crossover of e3 with e15?

 

[sudoku1]

http://www.traderji.com/general-chit-chat/76650-nifty-50-_bulls-7.html#post750689

 

[trade4putuval]

http://www.traderji.com/general-chit-chat/76650-nifty-50-_bulls-7.html#post750689

Thanks! No need to post your link here for me. I do watch your thread :thumb: