Doubt Relief !!
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durgesh said:
Hi !!!!
I looked at ur BILT chart.It looks like a corrective triangle and i feel it'll breakout on the downside .It should make for a good short candidate .
I looked at ur BILT chart.It looks like a corrective triangle and i feel it'll breakout on the downside .It should make for a good short candidate .
Obviously we belong to different schools of thought. I go by the conventional TA methods and you by more modern Elliot waves. As per the conventional TA ascending triangles are bullish continuation patterns and normally found in up trends. But they are also known to be reversal patterns after a downtrend. BILT has been battered down recently and presently consolidating. Hence it was a reasonable assumption on my part that it would be a good reversal pattern.
I regret that I am not in a position to comment on your assumptions because Elliot waves are as good as Greek and Latin to me. I could never fathom why certain peaks and troughs of the trend are left out while drawing the waves. The peak and trough after point (D) of your chart would a good example of my incomprehension. Also I always wonder about the starting point. The first wave one draws could be actually be part of a earlier wave formation. The starting point would make all the difference..eh. Pardon my ignorance on this subject.
Anyway we will have to wait and see what happens. The point is not who is correct and who is not. The point is that it provides a good window to learning.
Do keep posting the difference in opinion. After all we are all here in this wonderful forum to learn.
Cheers
Karthik
Hi Deeraj
The target would be at the least 200. Looks like you missed the nice call made by our dear friend, Dr.Saint on Mphasis BFL. Here is the link
http://www.traderji.com/27697-post1303.html
Happy profits
regards
Karthik
karthikmarar said:
That is very nice Durgesh. I always welcome difference of opinion. It provides us an opportunity to learn. If we keep agreeing to each other’s view then there is no fun and we fail to explore new ideas..
Obviously we belong to different schools of thought. I go by the conventional TA methods and you by more modern Elliot waves. As per the conventional TA ascending triangles are bullish continuation patterns and normally found in up trends. But they are also known to be reversal patterns after a downtrend. BILT has been battered down recently and presently consolidating. Hence it was a reasonable assumption on my part that it would be a good reversal pattern.
I regret that I am not in a position to comment on your assumptions because Elliot waves are as good as Greek and Latin to me. I could never fathom why certain peaks and troughs of the trend are left out while drawing the waves. The peak and trough after point (D) of your chart would a good example of my incomprehension. Also I always wonder about the starting point. The first wave one draws could be actually be part of a earlier wave formation. The starting point would make all the difference..eh…. Pardon my ignorance on this subject.
Anyway we will have to wait and see what happens. The point is not who is correct and who is not. The point is that it provides a good window to learning.
Do keep posting the difference in opinion. After all we are all here in this wonderful forum to learn.
Cheers
Karthik
Obviously we belong to different schools of thought. I go by the conventional TA methods and you by more modern Elliot waves. As per the conventional TA ascending triangles are bullish continuation patterns and normally found in up trends. But they are also known to be reversal patterns after a downtrend. BILT has been battered down recently and presently consolidating. Hence it was a reasonable assumption on my part that it would be a good reversal pattern.
I regret that I am not in a position to comment on your assumptions because Elliot waves are as good as Greek and Latin to me. I could never fathom why certain peaks and troughs of the trend are left out while drawing the waves. The peak and trough after point (D) of your chart would a good example of my incomprehension. Also I always wonder about the starting point. The first wave one draws could be actually be part of a earlier wave formation. The starting point would make all the difference..eh…. Pardon my ignorance on this subject.
Anyway we will have to wait and see what happens. The point is not who is correct and who is not. The point is that it provides a good window to learning.
Do keep posting the difference in opinion. After all we are all here in this wonderful forum to learn.
Cheers
Karthik
Behind your humble spirits , i can see vast experience of markets .I believe market doesn't always move in text book elliott patterns . When i can find , i just go with them .How the markets trade in future , is always an outcome of probabilities.I put in there what i thought Moreover , let me admit i am practising elliott wave just from a couple of months back.Still learning.
Dear Harmads
Here is my view on M&M and TISCO
M&M
It is definite HOLD. It is rising up nicely. I would put a safe target of 550. Currently the prices are stalling but will resume the upward journey.
Technical
This stock has been rising up very nicely from early November. Has risen by a handsome 100 points. This looks quite positive on the charts. The short-term momentum has been decreasing for last one week and currently the prices are stalling. But it is likely to resume the uptrend shortly as the long-term momentum is increasing.
Some fundamentals
M&M is an established brand in the rural market. It has a large share of the Utility vehicles in the rural area and a good share of the tractor sales. Because of price advantage it does not face much competition in these markets. The company is also concentrating on exports. Though last year the export earnings were small this is likely to grow. It is also planning to enter commercial vehicle and passenger car sectors soon. The company has already signed an agreement to make cars with Renault.
It is rumored that the company may list some its subsidiaries. This may result in unlocking of some values for the shareholders. With the economy doing well the demand for Utilties vehicles is likely grow. It is a good fundamental story.
TISCO
Tata steel is forming an interesting pattern on the chart. Earlier it almost formed a double top. This would have been confirmed if it broke below 330. Check this post by saint. http://www.traderji.com/25072-post10.html. Interestingly it never broke this level and went up again. Now it forming a Pennant. Pennants are continuation patterns. Since this pennant is being formed in a downtrend the breakout from the Pennant is likely to be downwards. I dont know what is your entry on this. Anyway it is better to exit if it breaks below 345-343 regions. I am enclosing the chart showing the Pennant.
Currently I am not looking too much into the fundamentals. The company is good, half yearly results are good. It is also planning to acuquire a Thailand based steel company Millennium steel. It is also eyeing another South African company Highveld steel. It is also planning to set up a plant in china and one in Bangladesh. It is a good fundamental story. But the stock currently seems to be in a bear grip.
regards
Karthik
Here is my view on M&M and TISCO
M&M
It is definite HOLD. It is rising up nicely. I would put a safe target of 550. Currently the prices are stalling but will resume the upward journey.
Technical
This stock has been rising up very nicely from early November. Has risen by a handsome 100 points. This looks quite positive on the charts. The short-term momentum has been decreasing for last one week and currently the prices are stalling. But it is likely to resume the uptrend shortly as the long-term momentum is increasing.
Some fundamentals
M&M is an established brand in the rural market. It has a large share of the Utility vehicles in the rural area and a good share of the tractor sales. Because of price advantage it does not face much competition in these markets. The company is also concentrating on exports. Though last year the export earnings were small this is likely to grow. It is also planning to enter commercial vehicle and passenger car sectors soon. The company has already signed an agreement to make cars with Renault.
It is rumored that the company may list some its subsidiaries. This may result in unlocking of some values for the shareholders. With the economy doing well the demand for Utilties vehicles is likely grow. It is a good fundamental story.
TISCO
Tata steel is forming an interesting pattern on the chart. Earlier it almost formed a double top. This would have been confirmed if it broke below 330. Check this post by saint. http://www.traderji.com/25072-post10.html. Interestingly it never broke this level and went up again. Now it forming a Pennant. Pennants are continuation patterns. Since this pennant is being formed in a downtrend the breakout from the Pennant is likely to be downwards. I dont know what is your entry on this. Anyway it is better to exit if it breaks below 345-343 regions. I am enclosing the chart showing the Pennant.
Currently I am not looking too much into the fundamentals. The company is good, half yearly results are good. It is also planning to acuquire a Thailand based steel company Millennium steel. It is also eyeing another South African company Highveld steel. It is also planning to set up a plant in china and one in Bangladesh. It is a good fundamental story. But the stock currently seems to be in a bear grip.
regards
Karthik
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durgesh said:
Behind your humble spirits , i can see vast experience of markets .I believe market doesn't always move in text book elliott patterns . When i can find , i just go with them .How the markets trade in future , is always an outcome of probabilities.I put in there what i thought Moreover , let me admit i am practising elliott wave just from a couple of months back.Still learning.
"How the markets trade in future , is always an outcome of probabilities". very rightly said my friend. It is these probabilities we try to explore and exploit in our own ways to make a bit for ourselves....
May be one day i will also try to learn this Elliot stuff.. I am also still learning..and a long long way to go ...
regards
Karthik
Dear Dheeraj
Here is my view on your queries
Eastern Silk : HOLD. This one has been moving sideways for almost a month. The first attempt to takeout the resistance around 198 failed. Today it made a nice move and closed marginally higher at 201. Today there was a very good increase in volume too. On the charts this looks strong. The momentum is turning positive. Looks set to go higher. This would have to stay above 201 ten we will higher levels. So you can HOLD this one. If this stays above 200 then it will also be good buying opportunity.
Sun Pharma : This has been on the rise from early November. It has moved nicely breezing past the resistance around 640 and 663. After a pull back from 689 it moved up nicely today with a gain of 22 points. The overall bias is bullish though the up trend has weakened lately. A safe entry will be above 689 with a stoploss of 682. If you are aggressive then enter above todays close.
Kopran : During the last correction it dropped to the 52 week low. Since then this has been moving listlessly sideways. The chart shows the lack of any trend. It has to cross 56 convincingly to have any upward movement. Further up this face resistance at 60.Looks like it will take some time for you to recover your money in this. A drop below 48 would indicate bad times for this one.
In the last quarter the company made a loss of about 4.1 Cr. Of-course a little better compared to the same quarter last year, which was 6 Cr. The previous quarter ending June showed nearly 3 Cr. Profit because of the sale of some brands for 20 Cr. The company showed a loss of 36 Cr for the year ending March 05.
Considering all this may be it is better to exit on rallies and put the money in a better counter.
Hope this will be helpful
Best regards
Karthik
Here is my view on your queries
Eastern Silk : HOLD. This one has been moving sideways for almost a month. The first attempt to takeout the resistance around 198 failed. Today it made a nice move and closed marginally higher at 201. Today there was a very good increase in volume too. On the charts this looks strong. The momentum is turning positive. Looks set to go higher. This would have to stay above 201 ten we will higher levels. So you can HOLD this one. If this stays above 200 then it will also be good buying opportunity.
Sun Pharma : This has been on the rise from early November. It has moved nicely breezing past the resistance around 640 and 663. After a pull back from 689 it moved up nicely today with a gain of 22 points. The overall bias is bullish though the up trend has weakened lately. A safe entry will be above 689 with a stoploss of 682. If you are aggressive then enter above todays close.
Kopran : During the last correction it dropped to the 52 week low. Since then this has been moving listlessly sideways. The chart shows the lack of any trend. It has to cross 56 convincingly to have any upward movement. Further up this face resistance at 60.Looks like it will take some time for you to recover your money in this. A drop below 48 would indicate bad times for this one.
In the last quarter the company made a loss of about 4.1 Cr. Of-course a little better compared to the same quarter last year, which was 6 Cr. The previous quarter ending June showed nearly 3 Cr. Profit because of the sale of some brands for 20 Cr. The company showed a loss of 36 Cr for the year ending March 05.
Considering all this may be it is better to exit on rallies and put the money in a better counter.
Hope this will be helpful
Best regards
Karthik
Dear Karthik/ Amitbe
Thanks for your perspective. I agrre that you all are doing a fab job on this forum
But my problem remains unresolved... pl help me... I have got stuck in Mysore Cements (avg 35, now its 26) and face a terrible dilemma... whether to average or to exit.
The answer lies obviously in the co's ability to turn around on the back of rising cement prices.... can either of you (or any other reader) please throw some light. I would be prepared to pay for such analysis .. I am sure this is perfectly a genuine commercial transaction and will not be questioned on commercial/tax/ethical/any other grounds.
Please, please help me...
AGILENT
Thanks for your perspective. I agrre that you all are doing a fab job on this forum
But my problem remains unresolved... pl help me... I have got stuck in Mysore Cements (avg 35, now its 26) and face a terrible dilemma... whether to average or to exit.
The answer lies obviously in the co's ability to turn around on the back of rising cement prices.... can either of you (or any other reader) please throw some light. I would be prepared to pay for such analysis .. I am sure this is perfectly a genuine commercial transaction and will not be questioned on commercial/tax/ethical/any other grounds.
Please, please help me...
AGILENT
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| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
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| A | Doubt Relief | Trading Career and Jobs | 2 |
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