Hi harmads
Sorry for the long delay in replying your query about long term investments in Construction and manufacturing sectors. Nowadays work pressure does not allow me much time for the forum and trading. Anyway it is not too late. The market is rather delicately poised now with bearish divergence in RSI in the nifty weekly and the long persisting divergence in the Trix on daily chart. Of course we have been talking about the possible correction for long. But the Nifty and Sensex have been defying all our prediction. But in spite of the nifty scaling newer heights the overall market has corrected much. A look at the madcap charts would make it very clear, as most have corrected 10- 15% of their high prices. A correction of 400-500 points looks quite imminent sooner or later. This would give us the opportunity to pick of strong fundamental stocks of the construction and manufacturing sectors at much better prices.
Let us look at the construction sector first. Construction stocks have had a strong run over the last year. Construction stocks like IVRCL, Gammon India, Nagarjuna Construction, Simplex, etc. have seen big growth amid bright prospects for the industry. However considering future prospectus and current order backlogs these stocks would see further growth in the coming years. Though we all know the main reasons for the future prospectus for this sector I will still list them briefly.
- Government has committed huge investment for refurbishing the countrys tardy infrastructure
- The Government's thrust on infrastructure (both urban and rural), coupled with low borrowing costs and a rapidly expanding economy has put the construction stocks in focus.
- The Indian economy has moved into a higher growth trajectory.
- Significant Government spending is taking place in the surface transport (roads, bridges) and power (nuclear, hydel and thermal) sub-sectors.
- Major states with technical assistance from the World Bank have also undertaken revamping of their roads. The objective is to replicate the success of the Golden Quadrilateral project at the state level.
- Most construction companies have seen their order book swell substantially
- The announcement of 100 per cent foreign direct investment in construction and realty is likely to facilitate increased investment flows.
Let us look at the top and the strongest ones in the construction sector. Of course the Big daddy of them all is the Larsen & Toubro with its 20,000 Cr. order backlogs. The second line ones are the Gammon, IVRCL, Nagarjuna Simplex and Hindustan Construction. Of these we will concentrate on the Hindustan construction and Hindustan Construction first as these are still very much affordable to the common investor and has got good growth potential. Then we will look into IVRCL and Gammon.
In order to keep the post short and readable our study will be spilt into many posts. First we will take up Nagarjuna constructions. I myself had made good profits on this one. Now I am looking at the right re-entry on this one
To be continued in the next post
regards