Experiments in Technical Analysis

[newbee]

It looks like a typical scam, using an old 3 step technique on a public forum

1. Flame a popular thread to draw attention
   
   
2. Brag about your own performance (using fake trades/records)
   
   
3. Fleece the newbies, using the private message route

Think . . . anyone will be falling for it ? ? ?

 

[oxusmorouz]

It looks like a typical scam, using an old 3 step technique on a public forum

1. Flame a popular thread to draw attention
   
   
2. Brag about your own performance (using fake trades/records)
   
   
3. Fleece the newbies, using the private message route

Think . . . anyone will be falling for it ? ? ?

Looks like people have missed the person's point entirely and have concentrated on more trivial areas. Point made by Amarnath is simple: The way the experimentation process has been carried forward and the core concept around which the experiment relied on is flawed.

http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/7377-experiments-technical-analysis-94.html

Ok, so we are talking DSP here.Talking abt filters, MAs are low pass filters while derivatives of SMA etc like MACD are hi-pass filters.But before we get into all that, lets talk about the time-series itself.

Ok, so a stationary series is one whose statistical properties are constant along its length. Its quite well documented that financial time-series are heavy-tailed and not stationary.Volatility clustering is another important topic, i.e tendency of autocorrelation in volatility.Given all these different conditions, I think its absolutely treacherous to try and detect signals in all this noise.Theres just too much randomness to deal with here than most people think and most are 'getting' fooled by it.

What I saw on this thread was a propensity to design 'buy and sell' systems but absolutely no effort was made into understanding the data itself. For me atleast, the buy-sell signal part hardly is the important issue, the key thing is to beat randomness.I have attached a map of my development process, the 'Analysis & Mining' is the primary area of my development. Another thing it does is to help with 'intuitive' understanding of markets. Ofcourse people are not interested in such undertakings, everyone wants to quickly get to the 'buy-sell' stage. Again, as I have said before, its not bad at all or something I complain about, as Napoleon once said - " Never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake". Ofcourse I am talking generally and not about you guys. The effort you guys have put in here is commendable but IMHO this is not the way to go around about system design.

The problem is indeed the concept. A MACD tells nothing but the difference b/w two MAs.It has nothing to do with trend at all, sure indicators can be useful but then its more about 'reading' it than anything else. A good example is Chick Goslin who uses the 3-10-16 oscillator beautifully.

Rgds

 

[amarnath]

It looks like a typical scam, using an old 3 step technique on a public forum

1. Flame a popular thread to draw attention
   
   
2. Brag about your own performance (using fake trades/records)
   
   
   
3. Fleece the newbies, using the private message route

ps: to buggy minded newbee , if i show contract notice can you hang yourself to death


Think . . . anyone will be falling for it ? ? ?

popular doesn't mean sucessful it may be dead load of craps

I am not silly newbee or bug like u and not idiot experimentators are real traders here then ???

check my pm if you need and i dont have time to count silly penny and paisa

 

[amarnath]

Looks like people have missed the person's point entirely and have concentrated on more trivial areas. Point made by Amarnath is simple: The way the experimentation process has been carried forward and the core concept around which the experiment relied on is flawed.

http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/7377-experiments-technical-analysis-94.html

very true oxo but it need peoples with grey matter not muscles

 

[uma_k]

Re: Digital Filters - Metastock Codes

I am too not expert in above said subject's but i have common sense to design trading system's rather than wasting time with macd like other's here

It continues further

you can google word At&CF (Adaptive Trend & Cycles Following). to find more

... ... ... etc.

The beginning or resuming the movement in one direction of FATL and SATL lines give signals either on the tendency reversal or finishing the correction and resuming price movement in the SATL direction.

Thanks Amarnath for the details. Also thanks to newbie for the link.

*** Uma ***

 

[karthikmarar]

Looks like people have missed the person's point entirely and have concentrated on more trivial areas. Point made by Amarnath is simple: The way the experimentation process has been carried forward and the core concept around which the experiment relied on is flawed.

Oxy

It is very easy to comment, isnt it? Ok it may be flawed But do come forward and tell what is right Are you ready to do that.

Like Amarnath has been ranting and ranting but not one useful post to explain what is right. If one says something is wrong he has the moral responsibility to tell what is right

 

[oxusmorouz]

Oxy

It is very easy to comment, isn’t it? Ok it may be flawed… But do come forward and tell what is right… Are you ready to do that….

Hello Karthik,
My post was not about stating what is right and wrong, for it is subject to a great deal of speculation, with evidence available and lacking both sides of the counter. It was merely to clarify what the poster had initially intended.
However, since I am drawn into the topic, I shall put it this way:
"What is right in trading is anything which helps make money, much better than buy and hold, and over a long period of time, without having to tear one's hair off, with sufficient evidence justifying the same".

 

[karthikmarar]

Goodbye Mr.Amarnath

I think we have had enough of your Harangue….

By the way you need to do some introspection…

Just go through your posts in the forum… A majority of them is to trash someone, insult someone or just to find fault… leave alone the foul language…

Is it your basic nature or frustration or simply high blood pressure…

Or like newbee said… are you just hoping to get some popularity and rope in some gullible clients… then it is really a pathetic way to live life…

I have decided to put an end to this fruitless exercise. There will be no response from me for any of your antics… I would appreciate if you go elsewhere to trap the gullible… you may even start a fresh thread to trash me

I have no intention of stopping sharing whatever little I know and so the thread will continue……

 

[kkseal]

http://www.traderji.com/139359-post215.html

 

[skillz2invest]

that's the spirit karthik;

Personally, I've already started ignoring any messages posted by "amar****" ; due to my this decision I may loose some important learning key(chances are 0.000001%), but on the other hand I will save lots of my valuable time that otherwise will be spent in going thru nonstop nonsense & pointless posts.

Skillz