Experiments in Technical Analysis

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oilman5

Well-Known Member
#931
#931
dear karthik,
i hereby request u..to answer some question.as allof us know u r a great trader,system developer..with faith in KISS.PL REPLY TO A RECENT THREAD..TOOL OF A TRADING PRO'
Q. R PUT FOR UR READY REFERENCE
dont know,whether i am right to write here....forbidden art of trading will be exposed here.many a pro r available here in this great forum...i request them to make comments.
1. why they r superior ?
2. what time frame they trade?
3. how far they r subjective in trading ?
4. what r the reason for their actual consistency ?
5. on what condition they dont trade ?
6. what is their contingency plan[enough is enough..now i am booking loss]
7. what self sabotage u find most difficult to overcome..yet how u have done it ?
8. do u think beginner trader[4yr amateur] can be like u oneday ?if yes. HOW!

THANKS WITH REGARDS
OILMAN5
 
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CreditViolet

Guest
#932
#932
Ok, so we are talking DSP here.Talking abt filters, MAs are low pass filters while derivatives of SMA etc like MACD are hi-pass filters.But before we get into all that, lets talk about the time-series itself.

Ok, so a stationary series is one whose statistical properties are constant along its length. Its quite well documented that financial time-series are heavy-tailed and not stationary.Volatility clustering is another important topic, i.e tendency of autocorrelation in volatility.Given all these different conditions, I think its absolutely treacherous to try and detect signals in all this noise.Theres just too much randomness to deal with here than most people think and most are 'getting' fooled by it.

What I saw on this thread was a propensity to design 'buy and sell' systems but absolutely no effort was made into understanding the data itself. For me atleast, the buy-sell signal part hardly is the important issue, the key thing is to beat randomness.I have attached a map of my development process, the 'Analysis & Mining' is the primary area of my development. Another thing it does is to help with 'intuitive' understanding of markets. Ofcourse people are not interested in such undertakings, everyone wants to quickly get to the 'buy-sell' stage. Again, as I have said before, its not bad at all or something I complain about, as Napoleon once said - " Never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake". Ofcourse I am talking generally and not about you guys. The effort you guys have put in here is commendable but IMHO this is not the way to go around about system design.
 

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CreditViolet

Guest
#933
#933
kkseal said:
Nice to see you on this thread CV.

You mean the fundamental deficiency lies where - is it in the concept behind the indicators or the data series itself ?

Regards,
Kalyan.
Click to expand...
The problem is indeed the concept. A MACD tells nothing but the difference b/w two MAs.It has nothing to do with trend at all, sure indicators can be useful but then its more about 'reading' it than anything else. A good example is Chick Goslin who uses the 3-10-16 oscillator beautifully.

Rgds
 
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oxusmorouz

Well-Known Member
#934
#934
CreditViolet said:
I have attached a map of my development process, the 'Analysis & Mining' is the primary area of my development.
Click to expand...
Hi CV,
If you don't mind, can you please elaborate on step II (Determine type of targeted behavior, data processing and mining, 1st level testing and end result).

Obliged,
Oxymoron
 
S

syamu

New Member
#935
#935
hi every one ..i need some clarification...can we import live data from odin work station in which we r placing orders?? suppose if i need data from any column say last traded price can i get that data so that i can use that in excel to do some other calculations
 
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CreditViolet

Guest
#937
#937
oxusmorouz said:
Hi CV,
If you don't mind, can you please elaborate on step II (Determine type of targeted behavior, data processing and mining, 1st level testing and end result).

Obliged,
Oxymoron
Click to expand...
Sure Oxy, will do laters probably on the weekend, it would all be quite lengthy to explain. I was trying to do the same on the blog, bcos of the time issue never managed to post it.

Rgds
 
U

uasish

Guest
#939
#939
Thks.Now my week end is jeopardized.Have to try to grasp this concept of data more fluidly .
 
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K

kkseal

Well-Known Member
#940
#940
CreditViolet said:
The problem is indeed the concept. A MACD tells nothing but the difference b/w two MAs.It has nothing to do with trend at all, sure indicators can be useful but then its more about 'reading' it than anything else. A good example is Chick Goslin who uses the 3-10-16 oscillator beautifully.

Rgds
Click to expand...
In fact going by its construction the MACD should actually be categorized as a Momentum (rather than trend) indicator; 'coz it measures the difference between two time denominated entities (EMAs) - which is a momentum characterestic. Now if momentum is what you want to gauge (specially on your trading timeframe) there are other better (less lagging) options.

I find the MAs themselves to be better indicators of the trend (also more visually depictive) as kind of proxy trendlines.

Regards,
Kalyan.
 
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