Free webinar on ForexPros - "Day Trading Strategies"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, Apr 28, 2010, 10:00 EST
In this webinar Mark Hodge, Head Coach at Rockwell Trading, will show you powerful day trading strategies that can be used to trade leveraged markets. He'll show you what settings to use, the rules, and when to enter and when to exit a trade. In addition, he'll cover:
1. A "secret" way to display charts that makes chart reading much easier
2. What markets to trade and why
3. What indicators to use to determine if the market is trending or moving sideways
This webinar is #1 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading. Don't forget to check the ForexPros calendar to register for Parts 2 and 3!
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Building Permits. It shows the number of permits for new construction projects issued by the government. Building permits are key indicator for the condition of the housing market. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.63M.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro tested the resistance we described as important 1.3675 with amazing accuracy, as yesterdays high was 1.3677. We still believe that 1.3675 is the key that can open the way for more gains. And still, the fight between this advancement and this resistance will be the deciding factor which will determine the direction that we will take from these levels. If the price manages to break the resistance, the rise will go on and get stronger as we see it targeting the important 1.3776 & if broken we will not be surprised to see 1.3861. The support is at 1.3625, and breaking it would mean that we are on the way to test Tuesdays low 1.3544 once again, and then head towards a very important support, provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the whole rise from 1.3281, which is at 1.3437. In case we reach this level or come close to it, it will be a critical level not only for the short term but for the medium term as well. It is worth noticing that the EURUSD has not filled the gap or closed the window, and thus, the possibility of downside activity remains there.
Support:
1.3625: the rising trend line from 1.3281 on the hourly chart..
1.3544: Tuesdays low.
1.3437: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3281.
Resistance:
1.3675: short term Fibonacci 61.8%, the resistance that stopped yesterdays rise.
1.3776: Mar 15th high.
1.3861: Jan 29th low.
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USD/JPY
The technical outlook has not changed for days. We are still trading very slowly in a correction to the up move which topped at 94.77, which is a correction that managed to reach its first target at 92.85. We are still watching for any other technical evidences to decide whether this correction has finished at Fibonacci 38.2% or that it is still going and will soon target Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% levels. But, we now have a very important support which combines Fibonacci 50% with the rising trend line from 88.12. This all important support is at 92.26 and in case it is broken, the price will continue its drop from 94.77 (the correction), and will target the most important support for the short term (and may be the medium term as well) 91.66, and if broken we will target 91.07 as a modest target for such a break on the way to lower targets. As for the resistance, we raised it to 93.61, and breaking it would indicate that we are back to the 94areas after completing a modest correction, and we will target 94.24 & 95.05.
Support:
92.26: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 89.74, and the rising trend line from 88.12 on the 4-hour chart, a very important support for both, short & medium terms.
91.66: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 89.74.
91.07: Mar 12th high.
Resistance:
93.61: an intraday resistance which stopped the price several times.
94.24: Apr 7th high.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Day Trading Strategies"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, Apr 28, 2010, 10:00 EST
In this webinar Mark Hodge, Head Coach at Rockwell Trading, will show you powerful day trading strategies that can be used to trade leveraged markets. He'll show you what settings to use, the rules, and when to enter and when to exit a trade. In addition, he'll cover:
1. A "secret" way to display charts that makes chart reading much easier
2. What markets to trade and why
3. What indicators to use to determine if the market is trending or moving sideways
This webinar is #1 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading. Don't forget to check the ForexPros calendar to register for Parts 2 and 3!
Canadian traders anticipate the publication of the reports published by the Bank of Canada. The bank lists four such reports yearly, in which it announces its projected views for the Canadian economy over the next two years.
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Euro Dollar
After yesterdays price behavior, the Euro continues to fluctuate, without being able to create major meaningful moves. This behavior has forced us to re-draw the falling channel which we presented yesterday, to include yesterdays high. And although there are a few pips outside the channel on both sides, this channel looks solid, and it deserves our attention. As we can see on the attached chart (the hourly chart), there is a descending channel with two bottoms on its lower trend line. This channel is the guardian of the falling trend, and its top at 1.3471 provides the most important resistance. If the price stays under this level, and continued to trade within the channel, more downside activity is to be expected. But, if we break this resistance, the price will contradict our hypothesis of a downtrend, and will start to rise and target 2 important resistance levels 1.3577 & 1.3675. On the medium term, the break of 1.3437 indicates a good chance to fall, but this break still lacks consistency. In case we trade with stability below 1.3437, the price will be expected to fall both on short & medium terms.
Support:
1.3437: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long term.
1.3340: Apr 9th low.
1.3266: Mar 25th & 25th low, and the last 9 months low as well.
Resistance:
1.3471: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart.
1.3577: short term 61.8% Fibonacci.
1.3675: the horizontal resistance which stopped the price twice and caused the current drop.
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USD/JPY
After holding close to 91.66on Monday, the price started to rise from this Fibonacci support, and continued all the way until it achieved the surprise and started trading above the previously broken trend line. This very strong rise from the bottom which came only 8 pips below Fibonacci at 91.66, indicates that the trend is up. But, in order for the Dollar to maintain gains, it is preferred to keep trading above 93.21, and if this support is broken we will fall to the most important support currently 92.48. This support in specific is the separating line between the uptrend & downtrend. As we said, bouncing from Fibonacci level is an evidence in favor of the uptrend, This should be followed by holding above this support. On the other hand, if this level is broken, the price will 91.82. The resistance is at the level which caught our attention during the past 2 weeks 93.61. IF broken, the rise which started at the Fibonacci bottom will be ready to entertain spectators, targeting 94.24 & 95.05.
Support:
93.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term.
92.48: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
91.82: important intraday bottom.
Resistance:
93.61: an intraday resistance which stopped the price several times.
94.24: Apr 7th high.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Day Trading Strategies"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, Apr 28, 2010, 10:00 EST
In this webinar Mark Hodge, Head Coach at Rockwell Trading, will show you powerful day trading strategies that can be used to trade leveraged markets. He'll show you what settings to use, the rules, and when to enter and when to exit a trade. In addition, he'll cover:
1. A "secret" way to display charts that makes chart reading much easier
2. What markets to trade and why
3. What indicators to use to determine if the market is trending or moving sideways
This webinar is #1 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading. Don't forget to check the ForexPros calendar to register for Parts 2 and 3!
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Core Durable Goods Orders. It measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.70%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke yesterdays support 1.3437, and dropped approaching the suggested target 1.3340 and reaching a new bottom at 1.3357. What happened did not move our focus away from the descending channel we presented yesterday. And although there are a few pips outside the channel on both sides, this channel looks solid, and it deserves our attention. As we can see on the attached chart (the hourly chart), there is a descending channel with two bottoms on its lower trend line. This channel is the guardian of the falling trend, and its top at 1.3427 provides the most important resistance. If the price stays under this level, and continued to trade within the channel, more downside activity is to be expected. But, if we break this resistance, the price will contradict our hypothesis of a downtrend, and will start to rise and target 1.3546 & the important 1.3675. As for the support it is just above yesterdays low, at 1.3369 to be specific, and if broken we see 1.3113 as a first and modest target for such a break, on the way lower.
Support:
1.3369: important intraday support.
1.3266: Mar 25th & 25th low, and the last 9 months low as well.
1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
Resistance:
1.3427: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart.
1.3546: short term 50% Fibonacci.
1.3675: the horizontal resistance which stopped the price twice and caused the current drop.
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USD/JPY
After holding close to 91.66 on Monday, the price started to rise from this Fibonacci support, and continued all the way until it achieved the surprise and started trading above the previously broken trend line. This very strong rise from the bottom which came only 8 pips below Fibonacci at 91.66, indicates that the trend is up. But, the return of the price to trade below this line once again today, is really puzzling. Thus we have no choice but to focus on short term levels without any prior bias. Short term support is at 92.72, and if broken we will test last Fridays low 91.89, and then the previous important resistance 90.78. While the resistance is still where it was in the past few days at 93.61, and we do not recommend cheering for the Dollar before breaking it. If we do, we will target 94.24 first & then 95.05
Support:
92.72: Asian session low.
91.89: Fridays low.
90.78: previous resistance on hourly chart.
Resistance:
93.61: an intraday resistance which stopped the price several times.
94.24: Apr 7th high.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Day Trading Strategies"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, Apr 28, 2010, 10:00 EST
In this webinar Mark Hodge, Head Coach at Rockwell Trading, will show you powerful day trading strategies that can be used to trade leveraged markets. He'll show you what settings to use, the rules, and when to enter and when to exit a trade. In addition, he'll cover:
1. A "secret" way to display charts that makes chart reading much easier
2. What markets to trade and why
3. What indicators to use to determine if the market is trending or moving sideways
This webinar is #1 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading. Don't forget to check the ForexPros calendar to register for Parts 2 and 3!
Traders of the US look forward to Fed Chairman Bernanke who will be testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in Fridays report 1.3300, and created what we considered a surprise with this break, then it successfully reached the first suggested target for this break 1.3387. Our target has turned into todays resistance, since it managed to stop the rise from 1.3200 (Fridays high was 1.3398). The issue for today is whether Fibonacci 38.2% will continue to hold in front of this strong climb which achieved almost 200 pips in less than 24 hours, or will it give way to more gains? The first scenario, which we slightly prefer is for Fibonacci to hold, and for the price to start drifting away from it, and finally to break short term support 1.3334. IF this level is broken, the drop will be hard, and will target approaching last weeks low, and the lowest level since Apr 30th 2009 which was 1.3200, since we notice an important intraday support at 1.3204. IF we fall further, 1.3113 will be the next station. The second scenario is for the price to break Fibonacci resistance 1.3387, and if this happens, the price will jump to 1.3445, and then to the most important Fibonacci level 1.3503. We still see this at the maximum, the upper limit, for the EURUSD at this stage, breaking this resistance will be a huge surprise to us.
Support:
1.3334: Asian session low.
1.3204: important intraday support, very close to last weeks, and one-year low.
1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
Resistance:
1.3387: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart, and Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
1.3445: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
1.3503: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
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USD/JPY
Finally, Dollar-Yen broke the resistance which we focused all our attention all through last week 93.62, and successfully reached the first suggested target 94.24. With the break of this important resistance, after days of waiting, it immediately turned into the most important support. It is crucial for the Dollar to preserve gains and hold above this support/resistance in order to achieve more gains. If we hold above it, the price will have another chance to attack the resistance 94.30. If this one is also broken, we will reach the 95 areas for the first time since August, since the targets for such a break are 95.05 & 95.90. But if the price goes back to trade under 93.62, it will go back to its favorite hobby of breaking & retreating. The targets for such a retreat will be the very important 92.56, which is provided by the rising trend line from 88.12. Breaking this line will see us fall to 91.89.
Support:
93.62: the previous important resistance, and the rising trend line from Apr 19th bottom on intraday charts.
92.56: the rising trend line from 88.12 on hourly chart.
91.89: last Fridays low.
Resistance:
94.30: important intraday bottom.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
95.90: Jul 29th low.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Day Trading Strategies"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, Apr 28, 2010, 10:00 EST
In this webinar Mark Hodge, Head Coach at Rockwell Trading, will show you powerful day trading strategies that can be used to trade leveraged markets. He'll show you what settings to use, the rules, and when to enter and when to exit a trade. In addition, he'll cover:
1. A "secret" way to display charts that makes chart reading much easier
2. What markets to trade and why
3. What indicators to use to determine if the market is trending or moving sideways
This webinar is #1 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading. Don't forget to check the ForexPros calendar to register for Parts 2 and 3!
New Zealand traders anticipate the Reserve Banks rate statement publication. It is the primary tool the central bank uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
Scheduled 8 times annually, it details the outcome of committee's vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced the members' votes.
If the statement is more hawkish than expected, that is usually good for NZD.
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Euro Dollar
Although the Euro has touched the 1.34 areas, it did not hold above 1.3387, even after trying twice, it went back to fall in both cases. And although it reached 1.3414, the issue for today is still whether Fibonacci 38.2% will continue to hold in front of this strong climb which achieved almost 200 pips in less than 24 hours, or will it give way to more gains? The first scenario, which we slightly prefer is for Fibonacci to hold, and for the price to start drifting away from it, and finally to break short term support 1.3337. If this level is broken, the drop will be hard, and will target approaching last weeks low, and the lowest level since Apr 30th 2009 which was 1.3200, since we notice an important intraday support at 1.3204. If we fall further, 1.3113 will be the next station. The second scenario is for the price to break Fibonacci resistance 1.3387, and if this happens, the price will jump to 1.3445, and then to the most important Fibonacci level 1.3503. We still see this at the maximum, the upper limit, for the EURUSD at this stage, breaking this resistance will be a huge surprise to us.
Support:
1.3337: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.3204: important intraday support, very close to last weeks, and one-year low.
1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
Resistance:
1.3387: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
1.3445: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
1.3503: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar-Yen retreated from this weeks top 94.34 back to 93.72, pips above the important resistance which was broken on Friday 93.62. With the break of this important resistance, after days of waiting, it immediately turned into the most important support. It is crucial for the Dollar to preserve gains and hold above this support/resistance in order to achieve more gains. If we hold above it, the price will have another chance to rise, which is a rise that should go through the 94.18 gate, the most important intraday resistance. If this one is also broken, we will reach the 95 areas for the first time since August, since the targets for such a break are 95.05 & 95.90. But if the price goes back to trade under 93.62, it will go back to its favorite hobby of breaking & retreating. The targets for such a retreat will be the very important 92.56, which is provided by the rising trend line from 88.12. Breaking this line will see us fall to 91.89.
Support:
93.62: the previous important resistance, and the rising trend line from Apr 19th bottom on intraday charts.
92.56: the rising trend line from 88.12 on hourly chart.
91.89: last Fridays low.
Resistance:
94.18: the falling trend line from this weeks top 94.34 on the intraday charts.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
95.90: Jul 29th low.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Day Trading Strategies"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Today, Apr 28, 2010, 10:00 EST
In this webinar Mark Hodge, Head Coach at Rockwell Trading, will show you powerful day trading strategies that can be used to trade leveraged markets. He'll show you what settings to use, the rules, and when to enter and when to exit a trade. In addition, he'll cover:
1. A "secret" way to display charts that makes chart reading much easier
2. What markets to trade and why
3. What indicators to use to determine if the market is trending or moving sideways
This webinar is #1 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading. Don't forget to check the ForexPros calendar to register for Parts 2 and 3!
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims. It is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 440.00K.
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Euro Dollar
As expected, the scenario we slightly preferred is the one which happened, which we said yesterday that it includes the price to start drifting away from it, and break short term support 1.3337. The price broke the specified support in yesterdays report 1.3337, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3204, and it came sort of close to the second suggested target 1.3113. Thus, there is no change on the technical outlook , we still believe that this downtrend is capable of breaking the 1.30 landmark, and go into the 1.20s for the first time in a year. But, after yesterdays plunge we could see a rising correction, which should stay inside the channel drawn on the attached chart. That is why we will focus on short term levels for today, waiting for one of them to give us the direction for the next several hours. Short term support is at the nearby 1.3188, and breaking it would indicate a drop to 1.3113 first, then maybe we will see 1.3050. The resistance is at 1.3247, and breaking it would indicate we are already in a rising correction for yesterdays drop, with the ideal target at 1.3310, and the maximum target at the channels top 1.3366. We see that it is very hard for the Euro to decisively break this resistance.
Support:
1.3188: the rising trend line from yesterdays bottom on intraday charts.
1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
1.3050: Apr 20th 2009 high.
Resistance:
1.3247: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last drop from 1.3414.
1.3310: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.3414.
1.3366: the top of the falling channel on hourly chart.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar-Yen continued to retreat from this weeks top 94.34 back to 93.72, breaking the important resistance which was broken on Friday 93.62, and dropping to 92.80, thats 24 pips before our suggested target for this break. After rising back above 93, the resistance 93.33 showed some strength, stopping the price from going up 3 times. But there are more important levels to focus o. The support is at 93.01, breaking it means a continuation of the drop, and looking for targets below 92.80, we see the test of the rising trend line from 88.12 as the most notable target for this break. We have modified this trend line, and it is currently running at 92.29. A break here will immediately target 91.58. As for the resistance it is at 93.75, and breaking it would be a sort of surprise, which could spark a sharp climb to 95.05 & 95.90.
Support:
93.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
92.29: the rising trend line from 88.12 on hourly chart, after it has been modified.
91.58: Apr 19th low.
Resistance:
93.75: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
95.90: Jul 29th low.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Money Management for Forex & Futures"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, May 12, 2010, 10:00 EST
Money Management is one of the keys to becoming a consistent and self-sufficient trader. But many traders are unaware of what money management really is and how it can have a dramatic effect on growing and protecting their trade equity. In this FREE webinar, Mark Hodge (Head Coach of Rockwell Trading) will cover the following important topics:
* What money management is and what it isn't
* Share several different money management techniques
* Show why Fixed Ratio Money Management is his favorite
This webinar is #2 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading.
Japanese traders look forward to the press conference held by the Bank of Japan, their preferred method of communicating with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.3188, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3113 with unbelievable accuracy (Yesterdays low was 1.3113 EXACTLY). Although the price bounced back above 1.32 (confirming the importance of 1.3113), but there is no change on the technical outlook , we still believe that this downtrend is capable of breaking the 1.30 landmark, and go into the 1.20s for the first time in a year. But, after yesterdays plunge we could see a rising correction, or actually we are probably in one, which should stay inside the channel drawn on the attached chart. That is why we will focus on short term levels for today, waiting for one of them to give us the direction for the next several hours. Short term support is at the nearby 1.3190, and breaking it would indicate a drop to 1.3113 once again, then maybe we will see 1.3050. The resistance is at 1.3232, and breaking it would confirm that we are in a rising correction for yesterdays drop, with the ideal target at 1.3299, and the maximum target at the channels top 1.3340. We see that it is very hard for the Euro to decisively break this resistance.
Support:
1.3190: important intraday support.
1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
1.3050: Apr 20th 2009 high.
Resistance:
1.3232: important intraday resistance.
1.3299: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.3414.
1.3340: the top of the falling channel on hourly chart.
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USD/JPY
We would completely abandon our focus on 93.62, after the price broke it several times without being able to create a decisive move in any of the times it broke this previously important level. We will focus on analyzing the rising move from 92.80, which seems to be doing good. This move has reached 94.30 so far, and it stopped in the same area as Mondays rise, when the high was 94.34. Thus, 94.30 will be our resistance for the day, breaking it would give us a chance to finally seethe long awaited 95 area, where there are several important levels we like such as 95.05 & 95.90. But when talking about support, we should consider the correction possibility for the whole rise from 92.80. IF we break Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 92.80 to 94.30, which is at 93.73, we will be officially in a correction. This correction targets 93.37 ideally, and if broken we will see a strong hard drop to the most important support 92.38. This is a critical support for the medium term as well.
Support:
93.73: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
93.37: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
92.38: the rising trend line from 88.12 on hourly chart, after it has been modified.
Resistance:
94.30: yesterdays high which is very close to Mondays high, and this weeks high 94.34.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
95.90: Jul 29th low.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Money Management for Forex & Futures"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, May 12, 2010, 10:00 EST
Money Management is one of the keys to becoming a consistent and self-sufficient trader. But many traders are unaware of what money management really is and how it can have a dramatic effect on growing and protecting their trade equity. In this FREE webinar, Mark Hodge (Head Coach of Rockwell Trading) will cover the following important topics:
* What money management is and what it isn't
* Share several different money management techniques
* Show why Fixed Ratio Money Management is his favorite
This webinar is #2 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading.
Australian traders anticipate the publication of the monthly interest rate statement. The Reserve Bank of Australia's monthly interest rate statement describes its latest decision regarding changes to the country's short term interest rates, monetary policy, and the direction of the economy. Short term interest rates are the key factor in currency valuation. A dovish statement could push AUD down against its rivals, while hawkish statement could boost the currency.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the hourly chart descending channel on Friday, at 1.3307. But such a break was expected to achieve more than the 40 pips it did! Sadly, the Euro frustrated supporters by going back inside the channel, but it left it with an exciting stop very close to short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3202 (the low until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3204). Thus, the chances of going up still exist, and they totally depend on this support. We will place most of our attention at 1.3202. If it holds, the price will try once more to break the channel and trade above its top which is running currently at 1.3271. If this most important resistance for the short term is broken, the Euro will jump to 1.3354 first, and may be to 1.3434 as well. On the other hand, a break of the most important level for today 1.3202, will lead the price south, deeper inside the channel, dropping to the important 1.3113 first, and then to 1.3050, the last important support before the 1.30 landmark.
Support:
1.3202: short term 618% Fibonacci level.
1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
1.3050: Apr 20th 2009 high.
Resistance:
1.3271: the top of the broken channel.
1.3354: Apr 6th high.
1.3434: the important low of Mar 2nd.
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USD/JPY
With a single quick look at the Dollar-Yen chart, we can clearly see that the most important level for the short term is 93.47, which combines Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term with the rising trend line from 91.58 on the hourly chart, giving this level double importance. We believe a break of the closest short term support 93.89 will lead to a test of the all important 93.47! And if this level is broken, we will drop to another important level for both the short & medium terms at 92.72. In this case, this support will be critical, since a break here will dramatically change the technical outlook for both the short & medium terms. If broken, the outlook will turn negative immediately. On the other hand, the resistance which captured our attention all last week, at 94.30 will enjoy being the most important for one more day. Breaking it will lead to the same targets we suggested for this break last week, 95.05 first & then 95.90.
Support:
93.89: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
93.47: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, and the rising trend line from 91.58.
92.72: the rising trend line from 88.12 on hourly chart.
Resistance:
94.30: Wednesdays high which is very close to last Mondays high, and last weeks high.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
95.90: Jul 29th low.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Money Management for Forex & Futures"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, May 12, 2010, 10:00 EST
Money Management is one of the keys to becoming a consistent and self-sufficient trader. But many traders are unaware of what money management really is and how it can have a dramatic effect on growing and protecting their trade equity. In this FREE webinar, Mark Hodge (Head Coach of Rockwell Trading) will cover the following important topics:
* What money management is and what it isn't
* Share several different money management techniques
* Show why Fixed Ratio Money Management is his favorite
This webinar is #2 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading.
Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the ADP National Employment Report. It is a measure of the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data , is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 30.00k.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke Fibonacci 61.8% support for the short term at 1.3202, and fell to 1.3153. Although we did not reach the suggested target for this break, it was a pretty important break, since it weakened the technical outlook, because this support was the last notable support protecting this cycles low, and the 1-year low, 1.3113. Thus, after breaking 1.3202, the odds favor a dip below 1.3113 to reach a new cycle low. We expect the Dollar to launch an attack at this level immediately after breaking the short term support 1.3173. If this support is broken, the pair will target 1.3113 first, and then 1.3050, the last notable support before the 1.30 landmark. The resistance is at 1.3273, it is very hard for us to picture the EURUSD in a positive technical outlook while it is trading below this level. But if it does break this level, it will be free of most of the pressure, and it will target 1.3354 and may be 1.3434.
Support:
1.3173: important intraday support, protecting yesterdays low.
1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
1.3050: Apr 20th 2009 high.
Resistance:
1.3273: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.3354: Apr 6th high.
1.3434: the important low of Mar 2nd.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report, 94.30, and came close to our suggested target 95.05 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 94.96). This rising trend finally penetrated 94.30, and managed to reach a new year-high at 94.96, the highest level for this pair since Aug 25th. This rising trend, is not a whole world away from the most important support for the time being, which combines short term Fibonacci 61.8% with the rising trend line from 91.58 on the hourly charts. For the short term, support is at 94.77, if we go back to trade below this level, the USDJPY will be correcting yesterdays rising move, or even the whole rise from 92.80. The targets for this correction will be 94.13 first, and then the all important 93.63. On the other hand, the resistance is at yesterdays target 95.05. If broken, it will be hard for any other resistance to stop the price before reaching 96 , where the targets 95.90 & 96.69 awaits.
Support:
94.77: Apr 5th high.
94.13: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
93.63: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, and the rising trend line from 91.58.
Resistance:
95.05: Aug 24th high.
95.90: Jul 29th low.
96.69: May 19th 2009 high.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - "Money Management for Forex & Futures"
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wed, May 12, 2010, 10:00 EST
Money Management is one of the keys to becoming a consistent and self-sufficient trader. But many traders are unaware of what money management really is and how it can have a dramatic effect on growing and protecting their trade equity. In this FREE webinar, Mark Hodge (Head Coach of Rockwell Trading) will cover the following important topics:
* What money management is and what it isn't
* Share several different money management techniques
* Show why Fixed Ratio Money Management is his favorite
This webinar is #2 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading.
The European Central Bank holds this monthly press conference about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced. It is about an hour long and has two parts: First, a prepared statement is read; then the conference is opened to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that trigger market volatility. The press conference, which is broadcasted on the ECB website, is the ECB's primary method for communicating with investors about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it often provides clues regarding future monetary policy. If the statement is more hawkish than expected, that is usually good for the euro.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.3173, and completely collapsed reaching both suggested targets 1.3113 & 1.3050. It even dropped more than 100 pips below our second target, dropping below the 1.30 for the first time since Apr 28th 2009. It was obvious, even before this recent drop, that the technical picture is negative, which we have expressed clearly in yesterdays report. But, the pace of this drop has exceeded our expectations. If we try to explain what happened, it could be a 5-wave drop which is still developing, out of which we are in the 3rd wave. And since wave 4 could be a sharp correction or a horizontal one, we must be extra cautious around here. We could see a sharp correction taking us back to the 1.31 area, before dropping below 1.29, or we could see a modest correction. Thus, we prefer to concentrate on the short term levels, and follow of break of any of them. The important levels for today are resistance 1.2985 & support 1.2948. If we break the support 1.2948, the price will continue dropping to the important levels in the 1.28 area: 1.2885 & 1.2820. But if we break the resistance 1.2985, the price will go back to trade inside the broken channel, and will start correcting yesterdays drop, targeting 1.3065 & 1.3130.
Support:
1.2948: important intraday support, protecting yesterdays low.
1.2885: Apr 22nd 2009 important low.
1.2820: Mar 10th 2009 high.
Resistance:
1.2985: the bottom of the channel which was broken yesterday.
1.3065: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
1.3130: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
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USD/JPY
The Dollars rise stopped at 94.96, thats 9 pips below our resistance 95.05, then it dropped, to leave us wondering is this everything? Is the short term rise over, or will it go on? Everything depends on breaking 95.05 or holding below it. If we hold below this resistance the price will be expected to fall, and test the rising trend line from 92.80 at 94.56. If broken the technical outlook will turn negative for the short term, and we will target the important support 93.91. If this one is broken, the technical outlook will turn negative for the medium term, and we will target 93.30 as a first and modest target for this break, on the way to lower levels later. On the other hand, if 95.05 gives way, it will be hard to imagine the rise stopping before the 96 station as we will target 95.90 & may be 96.69.
Support:
94.56: the rising trend line from 92.80 on the hourly chart.
93.91: the rising trend line from 91.58.
93.30: Apr 23rd low.
Resistance:
95.05: Aug 24th high.
95.90: Jul 29th low.
96.69: May 19th 2009 high.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
