Free webinar on ForexPros - Can You Really Make a Living with Trading?
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Wednesday, May 26, 2010, 10:00 EST
In this webinar Mark Hodge will teach you what it takes to make a living with trading:
1. Planning Your Way to Financial Freedom
2. Your Trading Business Overview and Feasibility Study
3. Money Management
4. Monitor Your Success and Making Sure You Are On Track
This webinar is #3 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the New Home Sales. It measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole. The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 425.00K.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.2492, and reached both suggested targets 1.2406 & 1.2295 with perfect success. This collapse which dropped the single currency more than 200 pips in less than 24 hours came as a result of breaking the rising trend line from this cycles low on the hourly chart 1.2142, which we said about we believe that a break of this line (in case it happens) will be the technical event of the day. The subsequent drop matched the importance of this line, and really exciting! This drop broke the Fibo 61.8% support at 1.2344, although it tricked us at the beginning that it will stop at that important level, when it reached an intraday low of 1.2343 and then bounced back above 1.24. Now, we have two heavyweight technical evidences that the trend is down: Breaking the above mentioned trend line, and breaking the Fibo 61.8% support. Therefore, we see a very gloomy technical outlook for the Euro, we believe dipping below 1.2142 is only a matter of time. Todays support is at 1.2256, and breaking it, would resume this collapse, targeting a test of this cycles low 1.2142, and then the psychological 1.2000. As for the resistance, it is provided by the falling trend line from Fridays top. Breaking this line will take the price higher to Fibonacci retracement levels for the short term, in te area between 1.2420 & 1.2515.
Support:
1.2256: important intraday level & a previous support area which showed strength.
1.2142: This cycles low, and the low of the last 4 years!.
1.2000: psychological level.
Resistance:
1.2364: the falling trend line from Fridays top on intraday charts.
1.2420: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2670.
1.2515: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar failed to capitalize on its consolidation above the 90 landmark, and gave up to the Yen at 90.60, then dropped more than 100 pips to reach the support specified in yesterdays report exactly (the support was 89.56 & todays low until the moment of preparing this report is 89.56).Today, Yens strength will completely depend on its ability to break the support 89.56. If the Yen can push the Dollar Below this level, we will witness a strong drop, targeting the same set of targets we suggested in the last 2 reports: 88.96 & 87.99. The resistance is at 90.23 and breaking it (if it happens) will target Fibonacci retracement levels 91.24 & 91.89. The latter is the most important resistance for the short (and may be medium) term for now. The downtrend needs to hold below the falling intraday trend line to keep things going smoothly (which is currently at 90.23). If broken, the short term negative technical outlook will change dramatically. The yes in still the one wearing the pants in this relationship, but beware of 90.23.
Support:
89.56: important intraday level, just below the falling trend line on the hourly chart, and also todays low at the moment of preparing this report.
88.96: Thursdays low, and a previous very important support.
87.99: Mar 6th low.
Resistance:
90.23: the falling trend line from yesterdays top on intraday charts.
91.29: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji forForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Can You Really Make a Living with Trading?
Expert: Mark Hodge, Rockwell Trading
When: Today, May 26, 2010, 10:00 EST
In this webinar Mark Hodge will teach you what it takes to make a living with trading:
1. Planning Your Way to Financial Freedom
2. Your Trading Business Overview and Feasibility Study
3. Money Management
4. Monitor Your Success and Making Sure You Are On Track
This webinar is #3 in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Rockwell Trading.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the GDP Price Index. The index measures the annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in GDP.
Therefore - the GDP Price Index is a key inflation measure. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.90%.
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Euro Dollar
Although the Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.2256, and fell afterwards by 80 pips, it came back to break the resistance specified in the report (opposite to our expectations), and traded above it after the American closing, but it was not ale to hold this high! This strong bounce, did not break any important levels (so far), to the degree that we can say that the negative technical outlook has changed. When analyzing the 4-hour chart, we can see a beautiful channel, with the price trading in the middle of it at the moment. We can also see that the whole movement of yesterday was in the middle of this channel, and it did not touch or even approach the top or the bottom of the channel. The fact that Fibonacci 61.8% is at the same level as the top of this channel, at 1.2481, makes this level very important. We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. As for the short term the support at 1.2256 has gained more importance after Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term has moved towards it exactly. Breaking this support will drop the Euro to the same target set for yesterday: 1.2142 first, then 1.2000. The resistance is at 1.2301, and breaking it indicates a continuation of the rising correction with its ideal targets between 1.2365 & 1.2481. It goes without saying that the latter is the single most important resistance for the time being, and the separating point between a continuation of the current downtrend, and a reversal to an uptrend! We still believe, we still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2142 is only a matter of time, nothing will change that except for breaking 1.2481.
Support:
1.2256: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, important intraday level & a previous support area which showed strength.
1.2142: This cycles low, and the low of the last 4 years!
1.2000: psychological level.
Resistance:
1.2301: important intraday level.
1.2365: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2670.
1.2481: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670.
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USD/JPY
More semi-horizontal movement, making us gradually lose hope to feel some excitement coming from this boring pair! But, there is a slowly rising channel on the hourly chart, which contained all the previous days shallow moves. It is a coincidence that short term 38.2% Fibonacci level at 90.74 is at the top of this channel, which gives it more importance. The bottom of this channel is at 89.37, and will be slowly rising to 89.56, the well known support. Todays main levels are support 90.14 & resistance 90.74, we can only hope to see some action upon a break of one of them. If we break the support 90.14, we expect to test the bottom of the channel 89.37 first, then to drop to 88.96 on the way to lower targets for the break of this channel. If we break the resistance 90.74, the correction of the drop from 93.62 will go on, with its ideal targets at 91.29 & 91.84. We believe that 91.84 is still the most important medium term resistance for now.
Support:
90.14: important intraday level.
89.37: the bottom of the slowly rising channel on hourly chart.
88.96: Thursdays low, and a previous very important support.
Resistance:
90.74: the top of the slowly rising channel on hourly chart, and short term 38.2% Fibonacci level.
91.29: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji forForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Today, June 3, 2010, 08:00 a.m. EST
During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Chicago PMI. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region.
Any reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the US ISM and usually has an impressive correlation with it. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 60.00.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.2256, and fell afterwards by 104 pips, only to stop before our suggested target & the 4-year low 1.2142. And after finding a bottom at 1.2152, the price bounced almost 150 pips in 8 only hours! This strong bounce, did not break any important levels (so far), to the degree that we can say that the negative technical outlook has changed. When analyzing the 4-hour chart, we can see a beautiful channel, with the price trading in the middle of it at the moment. We can also see that the whole rising move from 1.2152 was in the middle of this channel, and it did not touch or even approach the top or the bottom of the channel. Today, we will favor Fibonacci 61.8% over the top of this channel. Our most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2472 and not the channel top! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. As for the short term the support is at 1.2252, and breaking it will drop the Euro to the same target set for yesterday: 1.2142 first, then 1.2000. The resistance is at 1.2350, and breaking it indicates a continuation of the rising correction with its ideal targets between 1.2411 & 1.2472. It goes without saying that the latter is the single most important resistance for the time being, and the separating point between a continuation of the current downtrend, and a reversal to an uptrend! We still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2142 is only a matter of time, nothing will change that except for breaking 1.2472.
Support:
1.2252: the rising trend line from todays low on intraday charts.
1.2142: This cycles low, and the low of the last 4 years!
1.2000: psychological level.
Resistance:
1.2350: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2670.
1.2411: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.2670, which is very close to the 4-hour channel top.
1.2472: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670.
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USD/JPY
Although the price approached our resistance 90.74, and stopped only 9 pips below it, we have seen nothing but more semi-horizontal movement, making us gradually lose hope to feel some excitement coming from this boring pair! But, there is a slowly rising channel on the hourly chart, which contained all the previous days shallow moves. The channels top is just above short term 38.2% Fibonacci level at 90.74, making this resistance the most important for now. The bottom of this channel is at the well known support 89.56. Todays main levels are support 90.09 & resistance 90.74, we can only hope to see some action upon a break of one of them. If we break the support 90.09, we expect to test the bottom of the channel 89.56 first, then to drop to 88.96 on the way to lower targets for the break of this channel. If we break the resistance 90.74, the correction of the drop from 93.62 will go on, with its ideal targets at 91.29 & 91.84. We believe that 91.84 is still the most important medium term resistance for now, while the medium term support is at 89.56.
Support:
90.09: the rising trend line from Tuesdays low on hourly chart.
89.56: the bottom of the slowly rising channel on hourly chart.
88.96: Thursdays low, and a previous very important support.
Resistance:
90.74: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
91.29: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji forForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Today, June 3, 2010, 08:00 a.m. EST
During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the ISM Manufacturing Index. The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month. This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The ISM index is the result of a monthly survey of over 400 companies in 20 industries throughout the 50 states. The ISM's leading quality has been proven over time. During a recession, the ISM's bottom may precede the turning point for the economic cycle by some months. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 58.90.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro tried to approach the all important resistance 1.2472, but it topped at 1.2451, and then it went back to drop again, breaking the rising trend line on the hourly chart. We still believe that the most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2472! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. And since that the price has touched the channel top, and came close to Fibonacci then it started to fall, then the negative outlook is still here, strongly! As for the short term the support is at 1.2283, and breaking it will drag the Euro to the important 1.2152 then to a new cycle low at 1.2068. The resistance is at 1.2333, and breaking it indicates a continuation of the rising correction which will target 1.2411 first, then its ideal target at 1.2472. It goes without saying that this is the single most important resistance for the time being, and the separating point between a continuation of the current downtrend, and a reversal to an uptrend! We still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2142 is only a matter of time, nothing will change that except for breaking 1.2472.
Support:
1.2283: important intraday support.
1.2152: last weeks low.
1.2068: Apr 13th 2006 low, the last important support before the 1.2000 level.
Resistance:
1.2333: the retest level for the rising trend line on the hourly chart, which was broken on Friday.
1.2411: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.2670.
1.2472: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen reached 91.59 after the open of the new week, and we could see the price targeting the most important resistance for now: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 91.84, which is the separating level between a positive & a negative medium term outlook. If price stops at or around 91.84, the odds of going back down will be enormous, and a top around here could provide us with a wonderful chance to sell for medium term. But if broken, we will see a strong jump to 92.95 and may be 93.65. Support is at 90.95, and if broken, the price will retreat to 90.26 then to the very important 89.67. We still believe that 91.84 is still the most important medium term resistance for now, while the medium term support is at 89.67.
Support:
90.95: the rising trend line on hourly chart.
90.26: short term 50% Fibonacci level (for the rising move from 88.96).
89.67: the slowly rising trend line on hourly chart.
Resistance:
91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, the most important resistance at all for the time being.
92.95: May 18th high.
93.65: Apr 6th low.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji forForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Thursday, June 3, 2010, 08:00 a.m. EST
During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market.
European traders anticipate the publication of the Producer Price Index on June 2nd. The PPI is an inflationary indicator that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. The PPI looks at three areas of production: industry-based, commodity-based, and stage-of-processing-based companies. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.70%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro traded below the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2333 for the whole 24 hours since the issuance of yesterdays report. It did not break it, only to trade in a narrow range, which has postponed the drop but did not delete its possibility. We still believe that the Euro is ready to dive, and we still believe that the most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2472! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. And since that the price has touched the channel top, and came close to Fibonacci then it started to fall, then the negative outlook is still here, strongly! As for the short term the support is at 1.2244, and breaking it will drag the Euro to the important 1.2142 then to a new cycle low at 1.2068. The resistance is at 1.2312, and breaking it indicates a continuation of the rising correction which will target 1.2411 first, then its ideal target at 1.2472. It goes without saying that this is the single most important resistance for the time being, and the separating point between a continuation of the current downtrend, and a reversal to an uptrend! We still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2142 is only a matter of time, nothing will change that except for breaking 1.2472.
Support:
1.2244: Asian session low.
1.2142: This cycles and 4-year low.
1.2068: Apr 13th 2006 low, the last important support before the 1.2000 level.
Resistance:
1.2312: the top of the rising channel on the hourly & 4-hour charts.
1.2411: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.2670.
1.2472: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen retreated a little bit, and consolidated around 91, but we still believe that we could see the price targeting the most important resistance for now: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 91.84. But in order for it to hold to these chances, the price should hold above the 90.87 support, and not to start drifting lower and away from 91! The resistance 91.84 is the separating level between a positive & a negative medium term outlook. If price stops at or around 91.84, the odds of going back down will be enormous, and a top around here could provide us with a wonderful chance to sell for medium term. But if broken, we will see a strong jump to 92.95 and may be 93.65. Support is at 90.87, and if broken, the price will retreat to 90.26 then to the very important 89.67. We still believe that 91.84 is still the most important medium term resistance for now, while the medium term support is at 89.67.
Support:
90.87: important intraday level.
90.26: short term 50% Fibonacci level (for the rising move from 88.96).
89.67: the slowly rising trend line on hourly chart.
Resistance:
91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, the most important resistance at all for the time being.
92.95: May 18th high.
93.65: Apr 6th low.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji forForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Thursday, June 3, 2010, 08:00 a.m. EST
During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market.
Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change tomorrow June 3. The report is a measure of the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data, is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 56.00K, a significant change from the past reading of 32.00K.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro dropped strongly, as it broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.2283, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2142, and a new cycle low(just as expected) at 1.2110, which is a level not seen since 2006! We expressed confidence in this scenario in yesterdays report, when we said we still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2142 is only a matter of time. And even after this dive, we still believe that the Euro is ready to dive even more, and we still believe that the most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2456! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. And since that the price has touched the channel top, and came close to Fibonacci then it started to fall, then the negative outlook is still here, strongly! As for the short term the support is at 1.2200, and breaking it will drag the Euro to test this fresh cycle low 1.2110 again, and then to test the important psychological level 1.2000. The resistance is at 1.2279, which combines the top of the falling channel on the 4-hour chart (after adjusting it very slightly) and Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from yesterdays high. Breaking it indicates a continuation of the rising correction which will target 1.2390 first, then its ideal target: Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2456. It goes without saying that this is the single most important resistance for the time being, and the separating point between a continuation of the current downtrend, and a reversal to an uptrend! We still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2110 is only a matter of time, nothing will change that except for a break of 1.2456.
Support:
1.2200: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, which was tested more than once during the Asian session.
1.2110: yesterdays low, and the new cycles and 4-year low.
1.2000: important psychological level.
Resistance:
1.2279: the top of the rising channel on the hourly & 4-hour charts after adjusting it very slightly, and the short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance.
1.2390: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.2670.
1.2456: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670.
The Dollar/Yen came closer than ever to the all important resistance 91.84, stopping only 8 pips below it, which could be considered as a test of some sort! But we still believe that there is a chance to come even closer to this important level on the short term, and that we could actually touch it before we drop! But in order for it to hold to these chances, the price should hold above the 91.24 support, which is provided by the rising trend line on intraday charts. And although we notice that this is an important level, the resistance 91.84 is still the most important level for this pair right now! It is the separating level between a positive & a negative medium term outlook. If price stops at or around 91.84, the odds of going back down will be enormous, and a top around here could provide us with a wonderful chance to sell for medium term. But if broken, we will see a strong jump to 92.95 and may be 93.65. As we said, support is at 91.24, and if broken, the price will retreat to 90.36 then to the very important 89.72. We still believe that 91.84 is still the most important medium term resistance for now, while the medium term support is at 89.72.
Support:
91.24: the rising trend line from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
90.36: short term 50% Fibonacci level (for the rising move from 88.96).
89.72: the slowly rising trend line on hourly chart.
Resistance:
91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term, the most important resistance at all for the time being.
92.95: May 18th high.
93.65: Apr 6th low.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simplify Your Trading with an Easy Strategy
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Today, June 3, 2010, 08:00 a.m. EST
During this webinar, you will learn how to simplify your trading by using a "tried and true" strategy. This is what Kellie Durazo likes to call the "universal" strategy, as anyone can learn it, from the beginner to the advanced. You can use it on any currency pair you like to trade. Don't have time to spend hours upon hours analyzing charts looking for set ups? Then this strategy is for you and anyone who loves to trade the FX market.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls. The data measures the change in the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered to offer the best overview of the economy. The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 500K, a significant change from the past reading of 290K.
In what may be considered some kind of a surprise, the Euro broke the falling channel on the hourly & 4-hour charts at 1.2270 during the Asian session! This break could cause a lot of excitement before the weekend. It is only logical to expect more rise after this break. But we will not put our bets on it, before breaking the last top inside the broken channel, which was 1.2351. This is for the short term, but for the medium term, the Euro will stay weak until it breaks 1.2456 in a real and decisive way. So, todays resistance is at 1.2351, and only after a break here we would expect a continuation of the rising move. If this break happens, the first target will be a test of the single most important resistance for the time being 1.2456. And if this one is also broken, then 1.2560 will be a first & modest target, on the way to higher targets later. On the other hand, the support is at 1.2280, and breaking it would mean that the Euros channel break is losing momentum and effect, and that the price will resume its downtrend. The targets for such a break would be 1.2174, and then the last important support before the 1.20 level, which is at 1.2068.
Support:
1.2280: the rising trend line from yesterdays low on intraday charts/
1.2174: yesterdays low.
1.2068: Apr 13th 2006 low, the last important support before 1.2000.
Resistance:
1.2351: the last top on the series of tops defining the broken channel, which was broken during the Asian session.
1.2456: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2670.
1.2560: May 24th high.
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USD/JPY
Finally, the Dollar/Yen reached the long awaited 91.84! But the surprise was that it broke it, easily, and managed to reach 92.34 (todays high until the moment of preparing this report). This break will improve the weak technical outlook on the short term. But reaching the top of rising trend channel on the hourly & 4-hours charts indicates that the Dollar will face difficulties in its struggle to achieve more gains (please refer to the attached chart). Therefore, the dollar should break the top of this channel as soon as possible to maintain the positive technical outlook which emerged after breaking 91.84. If we break the resistance at 92.31, we will see the price jump to 9295 and may be 93.65 before the weekend. On the other hand, the support is at 92.02, and if broken, the price will correct its last surge, in a correction which would ideally target the area between 91.05 & 90.25. The latter has become he most important support for the short term, for now.
Support:
92.02: the bottom of the rising trend channel from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
91.05: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the rising move from 88.96.
89.72: Fibonacci 61.8% level for the rising move from 88.96.
Resistance:
92.31: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
92.95: May 18th high.
93.65: Apr 6th low.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Profit in Any Market Environment with Forex Options
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Tuesday, June 8, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
In this webinar, Kris Matthews of Paradigm Macro Trading and coauthor of the book, "Trading the Forex Market with Options," will teach traders how to trade Forex options profitably and limit risk. If you have issues with making sense of the "randomness" of price action, often get stopped out when the market turns, and are looking for a way to spend less time trading but still would like to earn profits in any type of market, this webinar is for you.
Fundamental Analysis: Nationwide Consumer Confidence - GBP
European traders look forward to the publication of the UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence. It measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. The figure is calculated from a survey of about 1,000 consumers
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 78.00.
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Euro Dollar
As expected, the Euro broke the support 1.2152, and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.2068 & 1.2000. The Euro fell below 1.20 for the first time since March 2006, but this drop was not a surprise to anyone, according to the negative technical outlook which we have adopted in the past days & weeks. Breaking below 1.20 opens the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high. Short term support is at 1.1911, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1825, and then 1.1754. The resistance is at 1.1963, and breaking it will give the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to the important 1.2085 & 1.2161.
Support:
1.1911: the rising trend line from the Asian session low on intraday charts.
1.1825: Feb 27th 2006 low.
1.1754: Dec 6th 2005 low/
Resistance:
1.1963: important intraday level.
1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.2214.
1.2161: the top of the falling channel on the 4-hour chart.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen stopped just before 92.95 (Fridays high was 92.87), and started to drop, drifting away from this new challenge which its obviously not ready for yet! The price then dropped, breaking the support specified in the report 92.22, and reaching the first suggested target 91.36 successfully. The current drop stopped just before the Fibonacci 50%for the short term at 90.90 (the low until the moment of preparing this report is 90.90). This indicates that this level is important for stetting the direction of the short term. If the price holds above this level we believe it can challenge Fridays top, and the important resistance 92.95, if not today then later in the week. Short term resistance is at 91.59 and if broken the technical outlook will improve, and the price will target 92.15 first, then the important 92.95. The support is at 90.90 which proved important this morning. If broken, we will seethe price dropping to 90.44 & then 89.80.
Support:
90.90: Fibonacci 50% level for the rising move from 88.96.
90.44: Fibonacci 61.8% level for the rising move from 88.96.
89.80: hourly support.
Resistance:
91.59: important intraday level.
92.15: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
92.95: May 18th high.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Profit in Any Market Environment with Forex Options
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Today, June 8, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
In this webinar, Kris Matthews of Paradigm Macro Trading and coauthor of the book, "Trading the Forex Market with Options," will teach traders how to trade Forex options profitably and limit risk. If you have issues with making sense of the "randomness" of price action, often get stopped out when the market turns, and are looking for a way to spend less time trading but still would like to earn profits in any type of market, this webinar is for you.
Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Traders of the US look forward to the Fed Chairman Bernanke Speech tomorrow June 9. The Fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
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Euro Dollar
With astonishing accuracy, the Euros drop stopped at the support specified in yesterdays report 1.1911, down to the pip! And then tried to reach 1.20, but it settled for 1.1989. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high. For the short term, the wave count illustrated on the chart, shows a 4-wave drop, in which yesterdays break is wave 4, and we still have room for another leg down below 1.1875, in what would be wave 5. Short term support is at 1.1932, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1825, and then 1.1754. The resistance is at 1.1984, and breaking it will give the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to the important 1.2085 & 1.2155.
Support:
1.1932: the rising trend line from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
1.1825: Feb 27th 2006 low.
1.1754: Dec 6th 2005 low/
Resistance:
1.1984: important intraday level.
1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.2214.
1.2155: the top of the falling channel on the 4-hour chart.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen held above the support specified in yesterdays report 90.90 (yesterdays low was 90.96), and it rose to break the resistance 91.59, and stopped before the suggested target 92.15 with only 8 pips! This surely indicates the importance of this level, which we will adjust today with a single pip to 92.14. This resistance will be in the center of our attention. On the other hand, the support is at 91.54, provided by the rising trend line from 90.96 on the hourly chart. If the price manages to hold above this support, we believe in its ability to test Fridays top and the important 92.95, if not today, then later in the week. But definitely, we need a break of 92.14 first, and if e get what we need, then the price will be on the way to test the important 92.95 first, then 93.70. But if the price retreats, and broke the rising trend line (currently running at 91.54), we will drop to the important Fibonacci levels: the important 90.90, and the more important 90.44.
Support:
91.54: the rising trend line on the hourly charts.
90.90: Fibonacci 50% level for the rising move from 88.96.
90.44: Fibonacci 61.8% level for the rising move from 88.96.
Resistance:
92.14: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
92.95: May 18th high.
93.70: Apr 14th high.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Expert: Chris Hall
When: Today, June 9, 2010, 8:30 a.m. EST
With the time you spend with Chris who mentors at FXGroundworks.com (the leader in harmonic pattern recognition, alerting and mentoring) he will teach you the foundations you need behind trading harmonics as well as trading in general.
European traders await the ECB Press Conference on June 10. European Central Bank holds this monthly press conference about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced. It is about an hour long and has two parts: First, a prepared statement is read; then the conference is opened to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that trigger market volatility. The press conference, which is broadcasted on the ECB website, is the ECB's primary method for communicating with investors about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it often provides clues regarding future monetary policy. If the statement is more hawkish than expected, that is usually good for the euro.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro fluctuated and penetrated both the support & the resistance specified in yesterdays report without being able to reach any of the suggested targets in both cases. This behavior enhances our hypothesis that we are in a wave 4 of a 5-wave decline, since its known in (The Wave Principle) that wave 4 price action appears to be random while this wave is developing, just as it is the case for wave B as well. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high. For the short term, the wave count illustrated on the chart, shows a 4-wave drop, in which yesterdays break is wave 4, and we still have room for another leg down below 1.1875, in what would be wave 5. Short term support is at 1.1923, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1825, and then 1.1754. The resistance is at 1.1975, and breaking it will give the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to the important 1.2085 & 1.2148.
Support:
1.1923: the rising trend line from Mondays low on hourly & intraday charts.
1.1825: Feb 27th 2006 low.
1.1754: Dec 6th 2005 low.
Resistance:
1.1975: important intraday level.
1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.2214.
1.2155: the top of the falling channel on the 4-hour chart.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen traded below 92.14 for the whole past 24- hours, and did not touch this important resistance. It also dropped to break the support specified in yesterdays report 91.54, only to settle for 91.23. This very limited action, has postponed the excitement, hopefully for no longer than today, especially after a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention. This level is the support at 90.52. The reasons which makes this level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising trend line from May 20th, with June 1st low, giving this level a double importance. But, before we can test this level, we need to break the intraday support 91.11. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important (and hopefully very exciting) level. Breaking here would have serious consequences on this pair, and 89.81 will only be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to lower levels. Resistance is at 91.67, and if broken, the important support test scenario will be void, and we will target 92.67 & 93.70.
Support:
91.11: important intraday level.
90.52: June 1stlow & the important rising trend line on hourly charts.
89.81: May 26th low.
Resistance:
91.67: the falling trend line from Mondays top on the hourly chart.
92.67: May 16th high.
93.70: Apr 14th high.
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ForexTrading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
