Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Traders of the US await the Core Retail Sales publication. It is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a future reading of 0.10%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke yesterdays resistance 1.1975, and rose as expected for almost 100 pips, but without reaching the suggested target 1.2085, as it settled for 1.2072. Unlike what some might think, this behavior was not a surprise, but a normal part of wave 4 which we have talked about. This behavior enhances our hypothesis that we are in a wave 4 of a 5-wave decline, since its known in (The Wave Principle) that wave 4 price action appears to be random while this wave is developing, just as it is the case for wave B as well. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high. For the short term, the wave count illustrated on the chart, shows a 4-wave drop, in which Tuesdays break is wave 4, and we still have room for another leg down below 1.1875, in what would be wave 5. Short term support is at 1.2021, and if broken the Euro will continue its drop to 1.1875, and then 1.1825. The resistance is at the important 1.12085, and breaking it will give the chance for the Euro to catch a break, and rise to 1.2176 & 1.2264.
Support:
1.2021: important intraday level.
1.1875: Mondays low, this cycles low, and the 4-year low.
1.1825: Feb 27th 2006 low.
Resistance:
1.2085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.2214.
1.2176: May 25th low.
1.2264: May 28th low.
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USD/JPY
Dollar/Yen reserved the boredom state in which it spent the previous two days. This very limited action, has postponed the excitement, hopefully for no longer than today, especially after a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention since yesterday. This level is the support at 90.62. The reasons which makes this level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising trend line from May 20th, with May 26th high (approx.), giving this level a double importance. But, before we can test this level, we need to break Mondays low 90.96. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important (and hopefully very exciting) level 90.62. Breaking here would have serious consequences on this pair, and 89.81 will only be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to lower levels. Resistance is at 91.48, and if broken, the important support test scenario will be void, and we will target 92.56 & 93.62.
Support:
90.96: Mondays low.
90.62: May 26th high (approx.) & the important rising trend line on hourly charts.
89.81: May 26th low.
Resistance:
91.48: the falling trend line from Mondays top on the hourly chart.
92.56: Apr 13th low.
93.62: May 13th high.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji forForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Fundamental Analysis: German ZEW Economic Sentiment
European traders await the publication of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. It determines the sentiment of German institutional investors. Above 0 indicates optimism while below 0 indicates pessimism. It's a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of 48.70.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance 1.2127 which we said that it will be very positive for the short term, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2176, confirming the break of the downtrend which we talked about on Friday. There is no doubt that the Euro has broken the trend, but that is only for the short term. We should not confuse this actual trend break and the change in direction for the short term, which the persisting downtrend for the medium term which is still going strong. This break has passed the first challenge on Friday by breaking 1.2127, but it is invited to another equally important challenge at 1.2214 today. If the Euro is to continue with its rise, it should break this resistance and should not stop at or near it. In case we do break this resistance the targets will be 1.2295 first, and then 1.2352. On the other hand, the support is at 1.2166, and if we break it, then this hot rise will go cold, and we will fall targeting the important 1.2106, then 1.2044.
Support:
1.2166: important intraday support.
1.2106: Fibonacci 61.8 for the short term.
1.2044: Fridays low, and the retest level of the broken trend channel.
Resistance:
1.2214: June 4th high.
1.2295: May 20h low.
1.2352: May 1st high.
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USD/JPY
Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in Fridays report 91.65, but it barely made it to 92 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is exactly 92.00), which makes us wonder if we will see results to this break. We are full of hope to see some excitement today, as we are betting on the Dollar to capitalize on the break of the falling trend line from last weeks high. And if it breaks the resistance 91.91, that would be probable, and we would be looking forward to reach the 92.56 & 93.62 targets. Having said that, the possibility of a drop remains, but it now needs a break of the support 91.60. If we do, we will target a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention for the past 3 days. This level is the support at 90.65. The reasons which makes this level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising trend line from May 20th, with June 7th low, giving this level a double importance. But, before we can test this level, we need to break the 91.60, which is the rising trend line from Thursdays low. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important (and hopefully very exciting) level 90.94. Breaking here would have serious consequences on this pair, and 89.81 will only be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to lower levels.
Support:
91.60: the rising trend line from Thursdays low on the hourly chart.
90.94: June 7th low & the important rising trend line on hourly charts.
89.81: May 26th low.
Resistance:
91.91: June 8th high.
92.56: Apr 13th low.
93.62: May 13th high.
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Forex tradinganalysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
European traders await the speech by, Bank of England governor, Mervyn King. As head of Britain's central bank, which controls key short term interest rates, King has more influence over sterling's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy. His comments may spark a short-term positive or negative trend.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2214, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2295 with stunning accuracy (yesterdays high was 1.2296). After that, the single currency dropped for more than 100 pips so far, which confirms what we have said that we should not confuse this actual trend break and the change in direction for the short term, with the persisting downtrend for the medium term which is still going strong. This retreat, from a well known resistance & a target area means that the hot rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short term support 1.2187, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains. And it will target two important levels: 1.2086 first, then the support provided by the rising trend lien from the 4-year low, which is at 1.2007. Needless to say that this is a very important level. On the other hand, the resistance is at 1.2254, and as long as we are below it, dropping more & more from yesterdays top will be expected. But if we break it we will target 1.2295 again, and later 1.2352.
Support:
1.2187: important intraday support.
1.2086: Fibonacci 61.8 for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterdays high.
1.2007: the rising trend line from last weeks low
Resistance:
1.2254: short term 61.8% Fibonacci.
1.2295: May 20h low.
1.2352: May 1st high.
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USD/JPY
Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 91.60, but it did not make it to 91(the low at the moment of preparing this report is 91.14). The most important technical event for the past 24 hours was the fact that the descending trend line from last weeks top has got very close to the rising trend line from may 20th low, and it seems as if they are touching at the important 90.96. This makes this support the single most important support without a shadow of a doubt! It seems as if we are about to test it, and we suggested keeping an eye at this pair as it gets closer to this level, because this very test is what will determine and set the short term direction. If we break 90.96 the price will drop hard, to 89.81 first, and then to 88.96, both levels are significant and critical support levels. The resistance is provided by the falling trend line from yesterdays top on intraday charts, at 91.47. If we break this support, a new short term rise will be initiated, targeting 91.91 & 92.56.
Support:
90.96: the touching point of two important trend lines: the rising trend line from May 20th low, and the falling trend line from last weeks top. The single most important support for the short term.
89.81: May 26th low.
88.96: May 20th low.
Resistance:
91.47: the falling trend line from yesterdays high on intraday charts.
91.91: June 8th high.
92.56: Apr 13th low.
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Forex tradinganalysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Traders await the US Initial Jobless Claims. It is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 450.00K.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2254, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2295 and came very close to the second suggested target 1.2352, stopping only 4 pips before it (yesterdays high was 1.2348). The Euro proved that it is still capable of going higher, which created a small surprise for us. Yesterdays top came very close to this months top, which was reached on the first day of it: 1.2352. This proves how important this resistance is, that is why it will be our resistance of the day. After hitting yesterdays top, the price retreated to 1.2307. This retreat, from a well known resistance & a target area means that the hot rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short term support 1.2307, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains. And it will target the ideal correction targets for the whole rise from 1.1875, which are 1.2167 & 1.2056. On the other hand, the resistance is at 1.2352, and as long as we are below it, dropping more & more from yesterdays top will be expected. But if we break it we will target the important 1.2452, and later 1.2519.
Support:
1.2307: important intraday support.
1.2167: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterdays high.
1.2056: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterdays high.
Resistance:
1.2352: June 1st high.
1.2452: the descending trend line from Apr 14th high.
1.2519: May 6th high.
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USD/JPY
Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 91.47, but it did not make it to the suggested target 91.91 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 91.73). The most important technical event for the past 24 hours was the fact that the ascending trend line from May 20th low, is now at yesterdays low 91.06. This makes this support the single most important support without a shadow of a doubt! It seems as if we are about to test it, and we suggested keeping an eye at this pair as it gets closer to this level, because this very test is what will determine and set the short term direction. If we break 91.06 the price will drop hard, to 89.81 first, and then to 88.96, both levels are significant and critical support levels. The resistance is provided by short term Fibonacci 61.8% level, at 91.70. If we break this resistance, we will be capable of penetrating 92.07 which stopped us a couple of times, and we will target 92.56 & 93.38.
Support:
91.06: the rising trend line from May 20th low. The single most important support for the short term.
89.81: May 26th low.
88.96: May 20th low.
Resistance:
91.70: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
92.56: Apr 13th low.
93.38: Jan 7th high.
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Forex tradinganalysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Canadian traders await the speech by governor Carney, to take place tomorrow, June 18th. Mark Carney, Bank of Canada governor, 2008-2015. As head of Canada's central bank, which controls key short term interest rates, Carney has more influence over the Canadian dollar's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
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Euro Dollar
With stunning accuracy, The Euros rising move stopped at the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2352 (yesterdays high was 1.2351), and then, just as expected, the drop began. The price then broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.2307, only to settle for 1.2253! The rising move halted very close to this months top, which was reached on the first day of it: 1.2352. This proves how important this resistance is, that is why it will be our resistance of the day, especially after it managed to send the price down for almost 100 pips. This retreat, from a well known resistance & a target area means that the hot rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short term support 1.2255, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains. And it will target the ideal correction targets for the whole rise from 1.1875, which are 1.2169 & 1.2057. On the other hand, the resistance is at 1.2352, and as long as we are below it, dropping more & more from yesterdays top will be expected. But if we break it, we will target the important 1.2452, and later 1.2519.
Support:
1.2255: Asian session low.
1.2169: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterdays high.
1.2057: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterdays high.
Resistance:
1.2352: June 1st high.
1.2452: the descending trend line from Apr 14th high.
1.2519: May 6th high.
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USD/JPY
With supernatural accuracy, the Dollar/Yen stopped at the support specified in yesterdays report 91.06 (yesterdays low was 91.07), and traded above it for the whole time after. Stopping here is in fact a test at the ascending trend line from May 20th low, a very accurate test actually (please refer to the attached chart). This makes this support the single most important support without a shadow of a doubt! This line is currently running at 91.17, and it will be our support of the day. And after such an accurate test, we suggest keeping an eye on this pair, because this very test is what will determine and set the short term direction. If we break 91.17 the price will drop hard, to 89.81 first, and then to 88.96, both levels are significant and critical support levels. The resistance is provided by the falling trend line from this weeks high, which is at 91.65. If we break this resistance, we will be capable of penetrating 92.07 which stopped us a couple of times, and we will target 92.56 & 93.38. It seems like we are going to enjoy an exciting end to this week with the USDJPY.
Support:
91.17: the rising trend line from May 20th low. The single most important support for the short term.
89.81: May 26th low.
88.96: May 20th low.
Resistance:
91.65: the falling trend line from Mondays top.
92.56: Apr 13th low.
93.38: Jan 7th high.
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Forex tradinganalysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Existing Home Sales. It measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 6.10M.
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Euro Dollar
Although it stopped accurately at it on Friday, the Euro penetrated the descending trend line from Apr 14th top on the hourly chart. We said about this line on Friday: Testing this line will be the single most important even for today, and its results will be very important for the medium term. The Euro now is between breaking this line and soaring for hundreds on points in the coming days, or dropping from this test to go back below 1.20 once again. And after The Euro breaking this level we can say that we will see it continue to fly, and will get closer to 1.30 with in 1-2 weeks. But for today, if the Euro breaks the resistance 1.2457, we will target the important levels above 1.25, most important of which for today are 1.2519 & 1.2604, before targeting higher levels later. But, if we drop we will target a test of the support 1.2389, and if broken a falling correction will take us back down to earth, as we target the Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from 1.1875, which are 1.2240 & 1.2170.
Support:
1.2389: an important rising trend line on the hourly chart.
1.2240: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to Asian session high.
1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to Asian session high.
Resistance:
1.2457: important intraday level.
1.2519: May 6th high.
1.2604: May 12th low.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in Fridays report 90.67, and dropped to 90.32, without being able to reach the first suggested target 89.81. But even though this break (and the break of the rising trend line from May 20th low) did not make it to its target, it will have a tremendous effect on the short term direction, and may be the medium term as well. But, we need a break of todays support at 90.49 to say that we are on the way to the same set of targets we suggested yesterday. Meaning, if we break 90.49, we will target 89.81 first, and may be 88.96 later. On the other hand, it is required to keep trading below the broken line, in order for the negative technical outlook to keep prevailing. The important line which was broken on Friday is running currently at 91.32. If we keep trading below this level, it will probably fall more & more. But, if we break above this level, the Dollar will say no to the downside scenario, and will test the area which stopped the rise twice on June 7th & June 14th at 92.07, and then 92.56. It seems like we are going to enjoy an exciting end to this week with the USDJPY.
Support:
90.49: important intraday support.
89.81: May 26th low.
88.96: May 20th low.
Resistance:
91.32: the retest level for the trend line which was broken on Friday.
92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th.
92.56: Apr 13th low.
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Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
European traders anticipate the MPC Meeting Minutes. The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also records the votes of the individual members of the Committee. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report, the important 1.2389, and dropped back below 1.23, hitting 1.2282 during the Asian session, but without being able to reach the suggested target 1.2240. When looking at the attached chart, we immediately realize that this retreat could mean a lot. It came from the top of the hourly chart rising trend channel, exactly, and started a strong fall. That is why we expect this drop to go on, and keep escaping further away from the channel top. And since the bottom of this channel is already below 1.20, we expect the price to go below 1.20 on the medium term. As for the short term, the Asian session low which was tested twice 1.2282, will be support of the day. If broken, the price will keep dropping, targeting Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole rise from this cycles low 1.1875. These levels are at 1.2170 & 1.2100, which became a critical medium term level. Todays resistance is at 1.2348, and in case the price succeeds in breaking above it, it will give itself a chance to test the top of the channel yet again. The top of the channel will be the first target of this break, at 1.2457, and if broken, we will jump to 1.2519.
Support:
1.2282: Asian session low.
1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from this cycles low to yesterdays high
1.2100: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from this cycles low to yesterdays high
Resistance:
1.2348: important intraday level.
1.2457: the top of the rising trend channel of the hourly chart.
1.2519: May 6th high.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen successfully jumped to the broken trend line we talked about previously, and performed a classic retest move, very accurate, before dropping 75 pips, in yet another confirmation that the bears are beating the bulls! With this classic retest, the break of the rising trend line from May 20th will continue to have a tremendous effect on the short term direction, and may be the medium term as well. But, we need a break of todays support at 90.75 to say that we are on the way to the same set of targets we suggested yesterday. Meaning, if we break 90.75, we will target 89.81 first, and may be 88.96 later. On the other hand, it is required to keep trading below the falling line descending trend line from June 14th high, in order for the negative technical outlook to keep prevailing. This important line is running currently at 91.25. If we keep trading below this level, it will probably fall more & more. But, if we break above this level, the Dollar will say no to the downside scenario, and will test the area which stopped the rise twice on June 7th & June 14th at 92.07, and then 92.56.
Support:
90.75: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
89.81: May 26th low.
88.96: May 20th low.
Resistance:
91.25: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly chart.
92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th.
92.56: Apr 13th low.
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Forex tradinganalysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Traders of the US anticipate the Consumer Confidence to be published tomorrow June 29. It measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 62.00.
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Euro Dollar
After its break of the small descending channel, the Euro reached its target for this break which is a test of the top of the main descending channel for the 3rd time! It touched, and slightly surpassed, the top of this channel (please refer to the attached chart). There is nothing more important than this test, for the short, and medium terms! But, we need a confirmation of this break: first we need the Euro to keep trading above the top of the channel, and then we need it to break the Asian session high 1.2396. If the Euro manages to provide what is needed, we will completely change our negative outlook for this pair. This is why todays levels will be support at 1.2358 & resistance at 1.2396. If we break the resistance, this will prove that the Euro is capable of capitalizing on the break of the channel, and flying higher. The targets for this break will be 1.2519 & 1.2655. On the other hand, if we drop back inside the channel, this will indicate running out of steam, and the end of the upside adventure! In this case, the case of breaking the support 1.2358, this pair will give up gains and start dropping. Targets will be 1.2260 and may be later 1.2170.
Support:
1.2358: the retest level for the broken channel.
1.2260: Thursdays low.
1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from this cycles low to last weeks high.
Resistance:
1.2396: Asian session high.
1.2519: May 6th low.
1.2655: May 11th low.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen continued to drop slowly, in yet another confirmation that the bears are beating the bulls! USDJPY broke the support specified in Fridays report 89.40, and reached a new bottom for this recent falling trend at 89.20. This confirms the negative technical outlook we have seen lately. And we believe it will persist as long as we are trading below the falling trend line from June 14th top, which is currently at 90.86. Short term support is at 89.20, and breaking it will be another evidence that we are going down. This break will target 87.99 & 87.35. Last weeks important support at 90.32 will turn into a resistance for today. Breaking this level will give this pair a chance to test the important trend line at 90.86, and if this one is broken, things will go against our outlook, as we will target 92.07. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the short & medium terms. We expect the fall to go on, but we hope to see it go faster, and more exciting.
Support:
89.20: Fridays low.
87.99: May 6th low.
87.35: Dec 9th 2009 low.
Resistance:
90.32: Wednesdays support which has turned into a resistance on the hourly chart.
90.86: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly chart.
92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th.
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Wed, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
European traders anticipate the publication of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.30%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.2358, and dropped as expected, and reached the first suggested target 1.2260, successfully! What is funny, is that the Euro dropped more than 150 pips from the top it reached after this weeks open, while the Pound reached a 7-week high above 1.51, and consolidated just below it. Therefore, it is hard to channel the direction of the European currencies against the greenback, and this in itself calls for caution. In the case of the Euro, its fall to meet our suggested target at 1.2260 is a negative sign for the short term without a doubt, If added to the fact that this drop came after the failure to break the top of the descending channel, we can see that this is also negative for the medium term as well. Todays support is at Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term at 1.2240, which we trade just above at the time of preparing this report. If broken, we will fall to test the more important Fibonacci levels: 50% At 1.2170, and 61.8% at 1.2100, which is the most important medium term support. The resistance is at 1.2337, and only with a break above here, this pair will improve its negative technical outlook for the short term. If broken, we will target 1.2396 once again, and if this one is also broken, we will be on the way to 1.2519.
Support:
1.2240: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from this cycles low to last weeks high.
1.2170: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from this cycles low to last weeks high.
1.2100: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from this cycles low to last weeks high.
Resistance:
1.2337: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.2396: the weekly high so far.
1.2519: May 6th low.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen continued to drop slowly, a bit faster than usual this morning, in yet another confirmation that the bears are beating the bulls! USDJPY broke the support specified in yesterdays report 89.20, and reached a new bottom for this recent falling trend at 88.59 without being able to meet our suggested target 87.99. This confirms the negative technical outlook we have seen lately. And we believe it will persist as long as we are trading below the falling trend line from June 14th top, which is currently at 90.64. Short term support is at 88.67, and breaking it will be another evidence that we are going down. This break will target 87.99 & 87.35. The resistance has shifted to 89.45, where we see an important level for several reasons. Breaking this level will give this pair a chance to test the important trend line at 90.64 as a first target, and if this one is broken, things will go against our outlook, as we will target 92.07. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the short & medium terms. We expect the fall to go on, but we hope to see it go faster, and more exciting. But for today in specific, we should be careful since we could see a bounce, because we came very close to the descending trend line illustrated on the attached chart, a bounce is highly probable, even if it was a temp.
Support:
88.67: important intraday level.
87.99: May 6th low.
87.35: Dec 9th 2009 low.
Resistance:
89.45: important intraday level.
90.64: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly chart.
92.07: the important resistance area holding Jun 7th & 14th.
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Simple Chart Pattern Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo, Fx V-room
When: Today, June 30, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
Remember learning patterns in elementary school and how easy they were to figure out? We can use this same technique to interpret different types of patterns on your technical Forex charts to identify possible trading set ups in the market, the easy way. During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will review many different types of chart patterns that will enhance your technical analysis and give you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. It tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month.
This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The ISM index is the result of a monthly survey of over 400 companies in 20 industries throughout the 50 states.
The ISM's leading quality has been proven over time. During a recession, the ISM's bottom may precede the turning point for the economic cycle by some months. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 59.00.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.2240, and dropped as expected, and reached the first suggested target 1.2170, successfully! This drop, and its reaching Fibonacci 50% for the medium term (yesterdays target) confirms that we are at least- in the middle of a downward correction, with its ideal target at 1.2100. But if we add to this, the fact that this drop came after the failure to break the top of the descending channel, we can see that this is also negative for the medium term as well, and we would conclude that this drop is not just a correction! We wonder: whats after Fibonacci 50%? Todays support is at Fibonacci 61% for the short term at 1.2186, and if broken, we will fall to test the most important Fibonacci level: The ideal target, 61.8% at 1.2100, which is the most important medium term support, if this one is broken as well the target will be 1.2006. The resistance is at 1.2312, and only with a break above here, this pair will improve its negative technical outlook for the short term. If broken, we will target 1.2396 once again, and if this one is also broken, we will be on the way to 1.2519.
Support:
1.2186: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.2100: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from this cycles low to last weeks high.
1.2006: June 8th high.
Resistance:
1.2312: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart.
1.2396: the weekly high so far.
1.2519: May 6th low.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen continued to drop slowly, a bit faster than usual yesterday, in yet another confirmation that the bears are beating the bulls! USDJPY broke the support specified in yesterdays report 88.67, and reached a new bottom for this recent falling trend at 88.27 without being able to meet our suggested target 87.99. This confirms the negative technical outlook we have seen lately. And we believe it will persist as long as we are trading below the falling trend line from June 14th top, which is currently at 90.51. Short term support is at 88.48, and breaking it will be another evidence that we are going down. This break will target 87.99 & 87.35. The resistance has shifted to 89.31, where we see an important level for several reasons. Breaking this level will give this pair a chance to test the important trend line at 90.51 as a first target, and if this one is broken, things will go against our outlook, as we will target 91.45. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the short & medium terms. We expect the fall to go on, but we hope to see it go faster, and more exciting. But for today in specific, we should be careful since we could see a bounce, because we already touched the descending trend line illustrated on the attached chart, a bounce is highly probable, even if it was a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
88.48: the rising trend line from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
87.99: May 6th low.
87.35: Dec 9th 2009 low.
Resistance:
89.31: important intraday level.
90.51: the descending trend line from Jun 14th top on the hourly chart.
91.45: June 21st high.
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
