Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex
Trading to Start Winning
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT
Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one
direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?
Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take
care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up
of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful
driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in
Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your
direction right and increase your win rate.
The Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in the average
productivity level of US workers when producing goods and services,
excluding the farming sector. The Nonfarm Productivity is calculated by
dividing the GDP by the number of hours worked. Growth in Nonfarm
Productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy.
A drop in Labor Productivity indicates inflation - since it's equivalent to
a rise in wages. It can be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading
should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected
reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts
predict a future reading of 0.10%.-
--
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in Friday's report 1.3212, and
successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3311, reaching the highest
level in more the 3 month in the Dollar-aftermath which followed the coming
out of the US monthly employment report. Technically, what is really
important is that we came close on Friday to a very important trend line,
and we are still around it: the trend line rising from June 29th low on
hourly the chart, which is running at 1.3194. Therefore, we should keep eyes
& mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading
plans ready. If we test the above mentioned trend line, it will be the
single most important technical to start the week with. As we said, this
line is at 1.3194, and should not be broken in order to keep the technical
outlook positive. But before we get ahead f ourselves, there is another
important support at 1.3265, if broken we will target a test of the above
mentioned line. And if it is also broken, we will witness a strong drop to
1.3118 at the very least. On the other hand, short term resistance is at
1.3306, and it is the key for more gains. If we break it, we will target
1.3383 & 1.3442. When approaching such an important trend line, the
following move is usually massive, whether it is broken or it manages to
reverse the direction. That is why we will focus our attention on this line,
until it is broken to the downside, or the price shoots up very far from it!
Support:
* 1.3265: short term 38.2% Fibonacci.
* 1.3194: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, the most important short
term support.
* 1.3118: Aug 5th low.
Resistance:
* 1.3306: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Friday's top.
* 1.3383: Mar 31st low.
* 1.3442: Feb 19th important low.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in Friday's report 85.74, and
dropped to a new yearly low at 85, only 19 pips above the 15 year low we
have seen in November 09! With this, the falling wave has successfully
managed to reach yet another target, but what are the next targets? In the
attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from
Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is
just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining
the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65
currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since
we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore,
we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that
the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time.
As for the short term, the support is at 85.31, and breaking it would
indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking
84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This break will target 83.87
& at a later time 82.65. The resistance is at 85.89, and if broken, the
price will continue its bounce, targeting 86.58 & 87.49.
Support:
* 85.31: Aug 4th low.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly chart.
Resistance:
* 85.89: the falling trend line from Jul 28th high on intraday charts.
* 86.58: the retest level for the rising trend line which combines the lows
of Jul 16th & 22nd.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex
Trading to Start Winning
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT
Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one
direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?
Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take
care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up
of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful
driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in
Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your
direction right and increase your win rate.
The Trade Balance index measures the difference in worth between exported
and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of
a country's balance of payments.
Export data can give reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an
indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic
currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the
USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of
-42.50B.
---
Euro Dollar
In an obvious concern about the uptrend, yesterday's headline was "The whole
short-term uptrend at stake", and so it happened. The Euro broke the support
specified in yesterday's report 1.3265, and successfully reached the first
suggested target 1.3195, and even came close to the second suggested target,
stopping only a few steps before hitting it. Technically, what is really
important is that we have, and without any room for doubt, broken a very
important trend line: the ascending trend line from June 29th low on hourly
the chart, at 1.3194. Therefore, the technical outlook has completely
changes the minute this line was broken. The Euro is left vulnerable for
severe losses, which we have seen almost 60 pips of which until the moment.
But we highly doubt that this is it, and we strongly believe that this pair
will continue moving south in the shadow of a technical outlook which
changed radically yesterday. Short term support is at 1.3133, if broken, the
price will drop to 1.3026, then to a very important medium term level at
1.2961. On the other hand the resistance is at 1.3233 and only with a break
here that the dark outlook will be changed! If this happens, a strong jump
to 1.3347 is to be expected, and may be later we will see 1.3442.
Support:
* 1.3133: Asian session low, which is only 3 pips above a well known support
level.
* 1.3026: Jul 20th high.
* 1.2961: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's
& 3-month high.
Resistance:
* 1.3233: the retest level for the broken trend line.
* 1.3347: May 3rd unforgettable top.
* 1.3442: Feb 19th important low.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen did not break the support or the resistance specified in
yesterday's report yesterday, but it tried to break the resistance 85.89 a
few hours ago during the Asian session. With this, we see a continuation of
the correction from Friday's low, after hitting another, lower target for
the downward wave we have been talking about for weeks, , but what are the
next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the
falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very
far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line
inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is
around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping
wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below
84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we
also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this
will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85. 78, and
breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the
objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This
will target 83.87. The resistance is at 86.43, and if broken, the price will
continue its bounce, targeting 87.49 & the important 88.10.
Support:
* 85.78: the bottom of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly
chart.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 & a 15-year low.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
Resistance:
* 86.43: the top of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
* 88.10: Jul 28th high.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex
Trading to Start Winning
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT
Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one
direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?
Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take
care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up
of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful
driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in
Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your
direction right and increase your win rate.
The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of
people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the
given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published
as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job
market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being
hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a
meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 465.00K.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3133, and
dropped as expected, only to stop at 1.3070, without reaching the suggested
target. Then (which is a lot more important), the price jumped in the
post-Fed chaos to 1.3226 (7 pips below our resistance), testing the
previously broken trend line, accurately (please refer to the attached
chart). If it a well known technical principle that such an accurate retest
confirms the break it followed, and the new direction, which is down in this
case. Looking at the attached chart, we can see that: 1. the rising trend
line was broken decisively and 2. the price retested this line in an
accurate fashion. These are obvious indication of a falling trend.
Therefore, unless the price goes back up to trade above the broken trend
line, we expect more downside activity. Short term support is at 1.3032,
which we are trading just above at the moment. If broken, the price will
drop targeting the important Fibonacci level 1.2961, and if broken 1.2875.
On the other hand, resistance is at 1.3158, and if broken, this pair will
contradict all what we have said, and will shoot up to 1.3255, and may be
1.3347.
Support:
* 1.3032: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's
& 3-month high.
* 1.2961: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's
& 3-month high.
* 1.2875: Jul 26th low, a well known support/resistance area.
Resistance:
* 1.3158: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.
* 1.3233: the retest level for the broken trend line.
* 1.3347: May 3rd unforgettable top.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report at 85.78,
and dropped to 85.16, approaching this year's low of 85.00 which we have
seen on Friday. However, the price consolidated above 85, and corrected the
drop up to 85.45. With this, we see a continuation of the correction from
Friday's low, after hitting another, lower target for the downward wave we
have been talking about for weeks, , but what are the next targets? In the
attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from
Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is
just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining
the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65
currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since
we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore,
we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that
the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time.
As for the short term, the support is at 85.16, and breaking it would
indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking
84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This will target 83.87 & at a
later time, we still believe in our 82.65 target. The resistance is at
85.81, and if broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting 86.43 &
87.49
Support:
* 85.16: "post-Fed" low.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly chart.
Resistance:
* 85.81: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level .
* 86.43: the top of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, Aug 17, 2010, 10:00 EST
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading
strategies that are effective and easy to learn. During this webinar, Kellie
Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend
your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading
opportunities for profit in the fx market.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods
and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the
consumer.
It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the
US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may
attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading
of 0.20%.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3032, and
dropped as expected, reaching both suggested targets 1.2961 & 1.2875 with
complete success, to move 400 pips away from last Friday's
"Jobs-report-top". We have commented on the retest case which took place
after the Fed's statement Tuesday evening by saying: "it is a well known
technical principle that such an accurate retest confirms the break it
followed, and the new direction, which is down in this case. Looking at the
attached chart, we can see that: 1. the rising trend line was broken
decisively and 2. the price retested this line in an accurate fashion. These
are obvious indication of a falling trend. Therefore, unless the price goes
back up to trade above the broken trend line, we expect more downside
activity." Today, there is more to talk about technically; there is a
complete 5-wave count for the rise from 1.1875, but does it mean that the
uptrend is over? Also, there is not one but 2 channels on the daily chart.
The first (shown in RED on the attached chart), combining the tops of the
waves 1 & 3, which is already broken. The second channel (shown in BLACK on
the attached chart) combines the tops of waves 3 & 5, and although the price
tried to break it, it went back to trade inside it. The bottom of the second
channel is at 1.2869, that is why this will be our support for today. If
broken, the horror movie will go on for the Euro, and we will drop to 1.2775
& 1.2681. The resistance is at the Asian session high 1.2917, and if broken,
a short term correction will target not less than 1.2981 & not more than
1.3074.
Support:
* 1.2869: the bottom of the rising channel on the daily chart.
* 1.2775: first of the main Fibonacci retracement levels (the 38.2% level)
for the whole rise from this year's low 1.1875 to last Friday's and 3-month
high.
* 1.2681: Jul 14th low.
Resistance:
* 1.2917: Asian session top.
* 1.2981: short term 38.2% Fibonacci level.
* 1.3047: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report at 85.16,
and dropped to 84.70 which is a 15-year low not seen since June 1995! Later,
it consolidated above 85, and corrected the drop up to short term Fibonacci
50% level at 85.46. With this, we have finally reached the main target of
this falling wave, which we talked about for the last 2 weeks: a drop below
84.81 & a new 15-year low, but what are the next targets? In the attached
chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07
top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above
74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly
lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing
us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as
we did before, that it will dive below 84.70. Therefore, we expect the price
to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited
volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the
short term, the support is at 85.28, and breaking it would indicate that we
are already moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching
lows not seen in 15 years. This will target 83.87 & at a later time, we
still believe in our 82.65 target. The resistance is at 85.90, and if
broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting 86.43 & 87.49
Support:
* 85.28: important intraday level.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly chart.
Resistance:
* 85.90: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level .
* 86.43: the top of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Today, Aug 17, 2010, 10:00 EST
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading
strategies that are effective and easy to learn. During this webinar, Kellie
Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend
your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading
opportunities for profit in the fx market.
The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes
are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about
two weeks earlier.
It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also records the
votes of the individual members of the Committee
If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as
positive/bullish for the GBP.
---
Euro Dollar
As the new week started, The Euro consolidated just below Friday's low,
reaching 1.2733 before rebounding fast to 1.2869. Such a rebound is
considered very "modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which came very
close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even reached the
first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important event was
dropping to another important trend line, which is the rising trend line
from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line which was
tested accurately yesterday, is at 1.2759. But before we think about it,
there is another support worth mentioning which is 1.2822. If this level is
broken, we will be already on the way to test the important trend line at
1.2759 as a first target, and if broken we will see the Euro dropping hard
to 1.2660. On the other hand, yesterday's trading showed that resistance is
at 1.2872. Only with a break here will the Euro be able to move forward. If
we get this break, we think that the price will rise with the target of
reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2962 & 1.3033.
Support:
* 1.2822: the rising trend line from yesterday's bottom on the intraday
charts.
* 1.2759: the rising trend line from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart.
* 1.2660: Jul 6th high.
Resistance:
* 1.2872: previous well known resistance.
* 1.2962: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
1.3332.
* 1.3033: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
1.3332.
---
USD/JPY
Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and
just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting
trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is almost at 86.21: the
resistance which the price tried to break on Friday, but left it alone
shortly after that. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend
lien & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this
line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 86.21 we will
shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back to trade
below the support 85.00, there will be nothing stopping the price from
reaching our awaited target 83.85, and may be at a later time we will see
82.65 as well.
Support:
* 85.00: Aug 6th low.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly chart.
Resistance:
* 86.21: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and
Aug 10th top.
* 87.00: Jul 7th low.
* 87.70: June 26th top.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Trend. How to spot it and how to trade it.
Support and resistance levels
Expert: Stoyan Mihaylov
When: Mon, Aug 23, 2010, 11:00 GMT
It is a common belief, that "The trend is your friend". In order to profit
from the trend you have to be able to spot it on the chart, recognize the
time-frame it is derived from and to define all the important support and
resistance levels. Walking with the trend is an easy and simple way to
follow the market , which is the essence of the TA phenomenon.
In this online webinar you will be able to participate actively in the
discussion and to ask the questions you're interested in.
The webinar will be conducted by Stoyan Mihaylov - financial analyst at
Deltastock AD.
The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of
people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the
given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published
as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job
market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being
hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at
least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job
growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD. The analyst predicts the future reading of 475.00K.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro went on with its bounce from the bottom it reached shortly after
the weekly open 1.2733, and scored a high at 1.2914, before dropping to the
support we specified in yesterday's report 1.2822 down to the pip. Such a
rebound is considered very "modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which
came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even
reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important
event was dropping to another important trend line, which is the rising
trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line
which was tested accurately on Monday, is at 1.2802. If this level is
broken, we will be already on the way to test this week's low at 1.2733 as a
first target, and if broken we will see the Euro dropping to 1.2660. On the
other hand, resistance is at 1.2879. Only with a break here will the Euro be
able to move forward. If we get this break, we think that the price will
rise with the target of reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2962 & 1.3033.
Support:
* 1.2802: the rising trend line from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart.
* 1.2733: this week's low so far.
* 1.2660: Jul 6th high.
Resistance:
* 1.2879: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
* 1.2962: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
1.3332.
* 1.3033: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen bored us yesterday with a very limited trading range, it did
not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report, therefore,
there is only a very limited change to yesterday's technical outlook. Let's
leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just
focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend
line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is almost at 86.21: the
resistance which the price tried to break on Friday, but left it alone
shortly after that. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend
lien & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this
line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 86.21 we will
shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back to trade
below the support 85.09, there will be nothing stopping the price from
reaching our awaited target 83.85, and may be at a later time we will see
82.65 as well.
Support:
* 85.09: yesterday's low.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly chart.
Resistance:
* 86.21: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and
Aug 10th top.
* 87.00: Jul 7th low.
* 87.70: June 26th top.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Trend. How to spot it and how to trade it.
Support and resistance levels
Expert: Stoyan Mihaylov
When: Mon, Aug 23, 2010, 11:00 GMT
It is a common belief, that "The trend is your friend". In order to profit
from the trend you have to be able to spot it on the chart, recognize the
time-frame it is derived from and to define all the important support and
resistance levels. Walking with the trend is an easy and simple way to
follow the market , which is the essence of the TA phenomenon.
In this online webinar you will be able to participate actively in the
discussion and to ask the questions you're interested in.
The webinar will be conducted by Stoyan Mihaylov - financial analyst at
Deltastock AD.
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of
goods and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change
from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in
purchasing trends and inflation in Canada.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the
CAD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may
attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. The analysts predict a future reading
of 0.10%.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro's bounce from the bottom it reached shortly after the weekly open
at 1.2733, halted yesterday at 1.2920. Such a rebound is considered very
"modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which came very close to 600
pips! We can clearly see that we have not even reached the first Fibonacci
level 38.2%. Technically, the most important event was dropping, and now
reaching, another important trend line, which is the rising trend line from
June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line which was
tested accurately on Monday, is running now at 1.2793, and it was touched
and slightly surpassed during the Asian session, with the price bottoming at
1.2781. If this level is broken, we will be already on the way to break this
week's low 1.2733 as we target 1.2660 first, then 1.2604. On the other hand,
resistance is at 1.2867. Only with a break here will the Euro be able to
move forward. If we get this break, we think that the price will rise with
the target of reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2991& 1.3057.
Support:
* 1.2793: the rising trend line from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart.
* 1.2660: Jul 6th high.
* 1.2604: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332.
Resistance:
* 1.2867: important intraday level.
* 1.2991: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
1.3332.
* 1.3057: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332.
---
USD/JPY
Boredom is back! Boredom is here again! As we have seen in previous periods
this year, the Dollar/Yen is back to trading in very tight ranges, it did
not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report. It approached
85 but failed to make a break, it also stayed the whole time below the
resistance 86.21. Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been
obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that
there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line
is running currently at 86.06. Therefore, all of our attention is at the
exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading
below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance
86.06 we will shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back
to trade below the support 85.35, we will target 84.70 first, and there will
be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 83.85.
Support:
* 85.35: the rising trend line from this week's low on the hourly chart.
* 84.70: This year's low, and the lowest level since 1995..
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
Resistance:
* 86.06: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and
Aug 10th top.
* 87.00: Jul 7th low.
* 87.70: June 26th top.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Trend. How to spot it and how to trade it.
Support and resistance levels
Expert: Stoyan Mihaylov
When: Today, Aug 23, 2010, 11:00 GMT
It is a common belief, that "The trend is your friend". In order to profit
from the trend you have to be able to spot it on the chart, recognize the
time-frame it is derived from and to define all the important support and
resistance levels. Walking with the trend is an easy and simple way to
follow the market , which is the essence of the TA phenomenon.
In this online webinar you will be able to participate actively in the
discussion and to ask the questions you're interested in.
The webinar will be conducted by Stoyan Mihaylov - financial analyst at
Deltastock AD.
The Existing Home Sales measures the annualized number of existing
residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report
helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to
analysis the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a
future reading of 4.75M.
---
Euro Dollar
As expected, the Euro landed hard after breaking the support we specified in
Friday's report 1.2791, dropping more than 125 pips, and stopping only 3
pips before meeting our target @ 1.2660. With this new extension to the
medium term drop from 1.3332, the size of this drop has become enormous, and
cannot be ignored. Last week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete
waves up from 1.1875. But, until this moment, we have not reached but only
the first Fibonacci retracement level for the 5-wave move at 1.2775.
Therefore, in spite of the size of this drop, we highly doubt that it has
shown all its cards. We believe this drop is capable of reaching Fibonacci
50% at least, or even go lower than that. But, what increases the risk in
these areas, is that after such a huge move, the Euro is subject to a
correction at any time, and from any level. Short term support is at the
Asian session low 1.2688. A break here would be a confirmation that we are
heading to Fibonacci 50% at 1.2604, and at a later time 1.2522. On the Other
hand, resistance is at 1.2791, this pair cannot continue achieving gains
unless we break the resistance 1.2791. In case we get this break, we will be
heading to 1.2919 & 1.2998.
Support:
* 1.2688: Asian session low.
* 1.2604: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332.
* 1.2552: Jul 13th low.
Resistance:
* 1.2791: the falling trend line from Aug 6th high on the intraday chart.
* 1.2919: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
1.3332.
* 1.2998: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen did not break the support or the resistance specified in
Friday's report. It traded in a very dull range of almost 55 pips, and we
are still waiting for a break bringing some excitement to this pair. Let's
leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just
focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend
line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 85.80.
Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the
importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the
downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 85.80 we will shoot up
targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. The support is provided by an important
intraday support at 85.18. If broken, we will target 84.70 first, and there
will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 83.87,
except for the BoJ.
Support:
* 85.18: important intraday level.
* 84.70: This year's low, and the lowest level since 1995..
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
Resistance:
* 85.80: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart.
* 87.00: Jul 7th low.
* 87.70: June 26th top.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - How Measuring "Currency Strength" can Reveal the True Sentiment of the Market
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 07:00 ET
In Part 2 of a four part series on trading sentiment, Kris Matthews reveals
how to rank currencies individually from strongest to weakest and pick
currency pairs where money is flowing most directly to ride trends that are
most likely to be profitable.
The Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new
orders for durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better
gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish
for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 0.50%.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro dropped after breaking the support we specified in yesterday's
report 1.2680, dropping almost 70 pips, and stopping only a few steps before
meeting our target at 1.2604 (the low at the moment of preparing this report
is 1.2617). With this new extension to the medium term drop from 1.3332, the
size of this drop has become enormous, and cannot be ignored. Last week, we
suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. But, until this
moment, we have not reached but only the first Fibonacci retracement level
for the 5-wave move at 1.2775. Therefore, in spite of the size of this drop,
we highly doubt that it has shown all its cards. We believe this drop is
capable of reaching Fibonacci 50% at least, or even go lower than that. But,
what increases the risk in these areas, is that after such a huge move, the
Euro is subject to a correction at any time, and from any level. Short term
support is not at the important Fibonacci 50% at 1.2604, but rather at
1.2630. If broken, we will drop to the exciting 1.2550, then the all
important 1.2432. On the Other hand, resistance is at 1.2750, this pair
cannot go on achieving the kind of gains we have seen after hitting Friday's
low, unless we break the resistance 1.2750. In case we get this break, we
will be heading to 1.2829 & 1.2891.
Support:
* 1.2630: the rising trend line from Asian session low on intraday charts.
* 1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows.
* 1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332.
Resistance:
* 1.2750: the falling trend line from Aug 6th high on the intraday chart.
* 1.2829: Aug 12th low.
* 1.2891: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
1.3332..
---
USD/JPY
It seems like speculators are insisting on pushing the Japanese government
to the limit! Although the Dollar/Yen traded in a very dull range of just 49
pips yesterday, it was pushed by speculators below the 85 landmark again.
Against the Euro, the Yen hit a 9 year high for the Yen, 9 year low for the
pair at 107.19. Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed
with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a
very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running
currently at 85.66. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend
line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this
line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 85.66 we will
shoot up targeting 86.81 and may be 87.70. The support is provided by the
Asian session low at 84.84. If broken, there will be nothing stopping the
price from reaching our awaited target 83.87, except for the BoJ. And if the
"Japs" keep quiet, we could see 82.65.
Support:
* 84.84: Asian session low.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly chart.
Resistance:
* 85.66: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart.
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low.
* 87.70: June 26th top.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - How Measuring "Currency Strength" can Reveal the True Sentiment of the Market
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, Aug 26, 2010, 07:00 ET
In Part 2 of a four part series on trading sentiment, Kris Matthews reveals
how to rank currencies individually from strongest to weakest and pick
currency pairs where money is flowing most directly to ride trends that are
most likely to be profitable.
The Euro broke the support we specified in yesterdays report 1.2630, dropping modestly to 1.2586, and stopping clearly before meeting our target at 1.2550. With this new extension to the medium term drop from 1.3332, the size of this drop has become enormous, and cannot be ignored. Last week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. And as we reach Fibonacci 50% for this massive move at 1.2604, we should not neglect the possibility that the correction might me over after reaching such an important target. Short term support is at 1.2627, and we believe a break here will indicate that the drop is far from over, and that the Euro will sink below yesterdays low. In this case the suggested targets will be the same as yesterday: 1.2550 first, then the all important 1.2432. On the other hand, yesterdays trading proved the importance of Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2990. This resistance is at 1.2714, and will be our resistance of the day. If broken, the Euro will jump to other important Fibonacci levels at 1.2792 & 1.2871.
Support:
1.2627: Asian session low.
1.2550: the support area containing Jul 7th & 12th lows.
1.2432: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332.
Resistance:
1.2714: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.2920.
1.2792: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.2920.
1.2871: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332.
---
USD/JPY
Finally, the Dollar/Yen dropped in the fashion we have been waiting for, and with the strength that we missed! The price broke yesterdays report, and dived to a new 15-year low to successfully reach our suggested target at 83.87. In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, which we expected, from the very beginning, that it will dive below 84.81. Lets leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 85.45. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 85.45 we will shoot up targeting 86.81 and may be 87.70. The support is provided by 83.92. If broken, there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 82.65, except for the BoJ. And if the Japs keep quiet, we could see 79.75 later, may be next month.
Support:
83.92: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from yesterdays low, and 15-year low 83.58.
82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09, on the weekly chart.
79.75: this pairs historical low.
Resistance:
85.45: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart.
86.81: Jul 26th & 27th low.
87.70: June 26th top.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
