In this session, Rajoo C will discuss the topics of:
1. Identifying entry, exit & stop loss level
2. How to choose the best cross to trade out of 36 currency crosses
3. Q&A
4. Precise Traders viable trades
This webinar is the second in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Precise Trader and Forexpros.com.
Traders anticipate the publication of the RBA Rate Statement. The Reserve Bank of Australia's monthly interest rate statement describes its latest decision regarding changes to the country's short term interest rates, monetary policy, and the direction of the economy. Short term interest rates are the key factor in currency valuation. A dovish statement could push AUD down against its rivals, while hawkish statement could boost the currency.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in Fridays report 1.2508, and stopped only 7 pips before the suggested target 1.2616 (Fridays high was 1.2609). The most important technical event, was approaching the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart. We could be before an important turning point, and we should carefully watch the top of this channel, which is at 1.2646 currently. We will not be able to escape the fact that a break here will be a very positive signal for both the short & medium terms. But, if we keep trading below this top, we could be facing a turning point which will probably lead to a drop of hundreds of points. Short term support is at 1.2527, and once we break it, we will start drifting away from the channel top, and will target 1.2451, and may be 1.2370. The resistance is at 1.2563, and if broken we will target another test of the channel top at 1.2646. If this one is also broken, 1.2737 will be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to higher targets.
Support:
1.2527: a rising trend line on intraday charts.
1.2451: May 28th high.
1.2370: May 25th high.
Resistance:
1.2563: important intraday resistance.
1.2646: the top of the falling channel on intraday charts.
1.2737: May 12th high.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen dropped below the resistance we talked about on Friday: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term at 88.67. It did not test it or even approach it. With this consolidation around 88, and after bouncing from the support area shown on the daily chart below, and after clearly breaking the falling trend line from June 21st top, we think that the possibility of a bounce is rising, even if that was for a correction. Short term support is at 87.67, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 87.00 & 86.47. The resistance is at 88.15, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar is about to capitalize on the break of the above mentioned trend line, which will ideally target short term Fibonacci levels: 89.20 & 89.73. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the short & medium terms. We expect the fall to go on, but we hope to see it go faster, and more exciting. But after hitting 87, we should be careful since we could see a bounce, because we already touched the descending trend line illustrated on the attached chart, a bounce is highly probable, even if it was a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
87.67: the rising trend line from Thursdays low.
87.00: Nov 27th 2009 high.
86.47: previous well known support.
Resistance:
88.15: an important intraday resistance level just above the falling trend line from Jun 21st top on the hourly chart.
89.20: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 91.45.
89.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 91.45.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
In this session, Rajoo C will discuss the topics of:
1. Identifying entry, exit & stop loss level
2. How to choose the best cross to trade out of 36 currency crosses
3. Q&A
4. Precise Traders viable trades
This webinar is the second in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Precise Trader and Forexpros.com.
North American traders anticipate the publication of the Ivey Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI). The index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. It gives an indication about the health of the manufacturing section and production growth in Canada. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their companys performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a future reading of 64.20.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro stopped ahead of the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2563 (the high for the past 24 hours is 1.2556). Later, it dropped, breaking the support specified in the report 1.2527, and went down as expected, but only to find another support at 1.2479, standing between it & its target at 1.2451. The most important technical event, was approaching the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart on Friday. We could be before an important turning point at 1.2609, since we saw the price falling away from this level yesterday. We should carefully watch the top of this channel, which is at 1.2656 currently. We will not be able to escape the fact that a break here will be a very positive signal for both the short & medium terms. But, if we keep trading below this top, we could be facing a turning point which will probably lead to a drop of hundreds of points. Short term support is at 1.2510, and once we break it, we will start drifting away from the channel top, and will target 1.2442, and may be 1.2370. The resistance is at 1.2570, and if broken we will target another test of the channel top at 1.2656. If this one is also broken, 1.2737 will be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to higher targets.
Support:
1.2510: important intraday level.
1.2442: May 18th high.
1.2370: May 25th high.
Resistance:
1.2570: important intraday resistance.
1.2656: the top of the falling channel on intraday charts.
1.2737: May 12th high.
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USD/JPY
In spite of the obvious trend line break to the upside, we have not seen a reaction to match the importance of this break until this moment. But fear not, this does not change the positive technical outlook for this pair. We still believe in the possibilities of a strong bounce. With this consolidation around 88, and after bouncing from the support area shown on the hourly chart below, and after clearly breaking the falling trend line from June 21st top (please refer to the attached chart), we think that the possibility of a bounce is rising, even if that was for a correction. Short term support is at 87.57, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 86.95 & 86.47. The resistance is at 87.96, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar is about to capitalize on the break of the above mentioned trend line, which will ideally target short term Fibonacci levels: 88.67 & 89.20. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the medium term. But after hitting 87, we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up: a bounce is highly probable, even if it was a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
87.57: the rising trend line from Thursdays low.
86.95: Thursdays low.
86.47: previous well known support.
Resistance:
87.96: important intraday resistance level just above the (broken) falling trend line from Jun 21st top on the hourly chart.
88.67: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 91.45.
89.20: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 91.45.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
In this session, Rajoo C will discuss the topics of:
1. Identifying entry, exit & stop loss level
2. How to choose the best cross to trade out of 36 currency crosses
3. Q&A
4. Precise Traders viable trades
This webinar is the second in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Precise Trader and Forexpros.com.
European traders anticipate the ECB Press Conference. The European Central Bank holds this monthly press conference about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced. It is about an hour long and has two parts: First, a prepared statement is read; then the conference is opened to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that trigger market volatility. The press conference, which is broadcasted on the ECB website, is the ECB's primary method for communicating with investors about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it often provides clues regarding future monetary policy. If the statement is more hawkish than expected, that is usually good for the euro.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2570, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2656 with a very good accuracy since yesterdays high was 1.2660. The most important technical event, was touching the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart for the second time yesterday, after touching it for the first time on Friday. We could be before an important turning point at 1.2660, since we saw the price falling away from this to 1.2575 during the Asian session. We should carefully watch the top of this channel, which is at 1.2681 currently. We will not be able to escape the fact that a break here will be a very positive signal for both the short & medium terms. But, if we keep trading below this top, we could be facing a turning point which will probably lead to a drop of hundreds of points. Short term support is at 1.2548, and once we break it, we will start drifting away from the channel top, and will target 1.2442, and may be 1.2370. The resistance is at 1.2603, and if broken we will target another test of the channel top at 1.2681. If this one is also broken, 1.2737 will be a first & modest target for this break, on the way to higher targets.
Support:
1.2548: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
1.2442: May 18th high.
1.2370: May 25th high.
Resistance:
1.2603: the falling trend line from yesterdays top.
1.2681: the top of the falling channel on intraday charts.
1.2737: May 12th high.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterdays report 87.57, only to reach 87.33. But this does not change the positive technical outlook for this pair. We still believe in the possibilities of a strong bounce. With this consolidation around 88, and after bouncing from the support area shown on the hourly chart below, and after clearly breaking the falling trend line from June 21st top (please refer to the attached chart), we think that the possibility of a bounce is rising, even if that was for a correction. Short term support is at 87.35, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 86.47 & 85.84. The resistance is at 87.72, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar is about to capitalize on the break of the above mentioned trend line, which will ideally target short term Fibonacci levels: 88.67 & 89.20. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the medium term. But after surviving at 87.35, we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up: a bounce is highly probable, even if it was a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
87.35: an obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09 low.
86.47: previous well known support.
85.84: Now 30th 09 low.
Resistance:
87.72: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
88.67: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 91.45.
89.20: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 91.45.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
In this session, Rajoo C will discuss the topics of:
1. Identifying entry, exit & stop loss level
2. How to choose the best cross to trade out of 36 currency crosses
3. Q&A
4. Precise Traders viable trades
This webinar is the second in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Precise Trader and Forexpros.com.
European traders anticipate the publication of the German CPI. The index measures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in Germany. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.10%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2603, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2681 with a very good accuracy since yesterdays high was 1.2686. The most important technical event, was touching the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart for the third time during the Asian session, after touching it for the first time on Friday, and the second on Tuesday. We could be before an important turning point at 1.2686, but until this moment we have not got far from the top of the channel. We should carefully watch the top of this channel, which is at 1.2690 currently. We will not be able to escape the fact that a break here will be a very positive signal for both the short & medium terms. But, if we keep trading below this top, we could be facing a turning point which will probably lead to a drop of hundreds of points. Short term support is at 1.2644, and once we break it, we will start drifting away from the channel top, and will target 1.2552, and may be 1.2442. The resistance is at the channel top at 1.2690. If this broken, we will target 1.2801 first, and may be 1.2906 before the end of the week.
Support:
1.2644: Asian session low.
1.2552: yesterdays low.
1.2442: May 18th high.
Resistance:
1.2690: the top of the falling channel on intraday charts.
1.2801: May 11th high.
1.2906: previous well known support/resistance area.
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USD/JPY
Our waiting finally paid, as we finally saw the Dollar/Yen sharply bouncing as we have expected, and as we have been waiting for. The Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 87.72, only to reach 88.44 (the high at the moment of preparing this report). This sharp bounce came as no surprise, with the consolidation around 88, and after bouncing from the support area shown on the hourly chart below, and after clearly breaking the falling trend line from June 21st top. Short term support is at 88.19, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 87.35 & 86.47. The resistance is at 88.51, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar is about to capitalize on the break of the above mentioned trend line, which will ideally target short term Fibonacci levels: 89.20 & 89.73. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the medium term. But we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up targeting Fibonacci levels: a bounce is highly probable, even if it was a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
88.19: Fridays top.
87.35: an obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09 low.
86.47: previous well known support.
Resistance:
88.51: previous well known resistance.
89.20: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 91.45.
89.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 91.45.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Trading the Harmonic Patterns LIVE
Expert: Chris Hall
When: Mon, July 12, 2010, 08:00 EST
By now you probably know about Fibonacci ratios. When you take the power of fibs, and combine them into patterns, they become Harmonic. Unlike other patterns, these patterns adhere to their fib ratios very accurately and with precision! There is no question that humans love routines and therefore repeat their actions, just like how the patterns repeat naturally.
In this webinar, you will learn to:
-Identify these patterns
-How to trade Harmonic Patterns including your Entries, Stops, and Targets
-Figure out why most people struggle with using Indicators
-Identify Your Own Trading Errors
Chris will also be taking a live look at the markets where he will identify trades with you, help you setup your plan surrounding the harmonic patterns and execute any trades that look advantageous.
This is an open session, and we highly recommend that you ask Chris all the questions you can about harmonics. Trading harmonics is a method he knows best as FXGroundworks is a leader in advanced harmonic alerts, mentoring and pattern recognition.
Fundamental Analysis: German ZEW Economic Sentiment
The European traders anticipate The German Zentrum fr Europische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment to determine the sentiment of German institutional investors.
Above 0 indicates optimism while below 0 indicates pessimism. It's a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. The analysis predict a future reading of 25.20.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in Fridays report 1.2677, and dropped to 1.2607 before it continued its way down after the new weeks open to 1.2578 (todays low at the moment of preparing this report). The rise topped at 1.2720, in what turned out to be the most serious test of the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart. The drop which followed the open, raised the possibilities that we could be before an important turning point at the channel top, specially after dropping from Fridays high 150 pips so far. As we said in our last report: We will not be able to escape the fact that a break here will be a very positive signal for both the short & medium terms. But, if we keep trading below (or around) it, we could be facing a turning point which will probably lead to a drop of hundreds of points, and we still stand by this view! Short term support is at 1.2552, and once we break it, we will start drifting away from the channel top, and will target 1.2442, and may be 1.2393. The resistance is at 1.2607, and if broken, the negative outlook we have been praising will get a shock, and the Euro will be on the way to 1.2737, and may be 1.2801.
Support:
1.2552: Wednesdays low.
1.2442: May 18th high.
1.2393: June 25th high.
Resistance:
1.2607: the falling trend line from Fridays top on hourly chart.
1.2737: May 12th high.
1.2801: May 11th high.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen continued to rise, reaching 89.13, but at a much slower pace that we have seen on Wednesday. This slow bounce came as no surprise, with the consolidation around 88, and after bouncing from the support area shown on the hourly chart below, and after clearly breaking the falling trend line from June 21st top. It seems as if we are in a wave 4 correction now (please refer to the attached chart), which will ideally target a Fibonacci ratio of the wave 3 dive. Short term support is at Fridays top 88.60, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 87.99 & 87.35. The resistance is at 89.01, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar will continue to capitalize on the break of the above mentioned trend line, which will ideally target Fibonacci levels for wave 3: 89.52 & 90.13. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the medium term. But we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up targeting Fibonacci levels: a bounce is highly probable, and it is most likely to be just a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
88.60: Fridays top.
87.99: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
87.35: an obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09 low.
Resistance:
89.01: the falling trend line from Asian session high on intraday charts.
89.52: Fibonacci 50% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
90.13: Fibonacci 61.8% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Live Trading with Price Level Principle (PLP) - Part III
Expert: Rajoo C
When: Thu, July 15, 2010, 11 GMT
In this session, Rajoo C will discuss the topics of:
1. Identifying entry, exit & stop loss level
2. How to choose the best cross to trade out of 36 currency crosses
3. Q&A
4. Precise Traders viable trades
This webinar is the last in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Precise Trader and Forexpros.com.
The American traders anticipate the publication oh The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, them being a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so Currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro did not decisively break the support or the resistance specified in yesterdays report: it stopped 4 pips above the resistance specified in the report, and then found a bottom only 2 pips below the reports support. The price topped at 1.2720 on Friday, in what turned out to be the most serious test of the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart. The drop which followed the weeks open, raised the possibilities that we could be before an important turning point at the channel top, especially after dropping from Fridays high 150 pips so far. As we said in our last report: We will not be able to escape the fact that a break here will be a very positive signal for both the short & medium terms. But, if we keep trading below (or around) it, we could be facing a turning point which will probably lead to a drop of hundreds of points, and we still stand by this view! Short term support is at 1.2552, and once we break it, we will start drifting away from the channel top, and will target 1.2442, and may be 1.2393. The resistance is at 1.2601, and if broken, the negative outlook we have been praising will get a shock, and the Euro will be on the way to 1.2737, and may be 1.2801.
Support:
1.2552: Wednesdays low.
1.2442: May 18th high.
1.2393: June 25th high.
Resistance:
1.2601: the falling trend line from Fridays top on hourly chart.
1.2737: May 12th high.
1.2801: May 11th high.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen retreated a little bit, and found a bottom at 88.37. As we have explained several times, it seems that we are in a wave 4 correction now (please refer to the attached chart), which will ideally target a Fibonacci ratio of the wave 3 dive. But the important question now is this: is the 4th wave correction done? yesterdays close produced a shooting star pattern on the daily chart, making us believe that this correction is probably over! Short term support is at Fridays top 88.37, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 87.35 & 86.47. The resistance is at 88.76, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar will continue to capitalize its latest bounce, which will ideally target Fibonacci levels for wave 3: 89.52 & 90.13. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the medium term. But we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up targeting Fibonacci levels: a bounce is highly probable, and it is most likely to be just a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
88.37: yesterdays low which was tested twice.
87.35: an obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09 low.
86.47: previous well known support.
Resistance:
88.76: the falling trend line from Asian session high on intraday charts.
89.52: Fibonacci 50% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
90.13: Fibonacci 61.8% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Live Trading with Price Level Principle (PLP) - Part III
Expert: Rajoo C
When: Thu, July 15, 2010, 11 GMT
In this session, Rajoo C will discuss the topics of:
1. Identifying entry, exit & stop loss level
2. How to choose the best cross to trade out of 36 currency crosses
3. Q&A
4. Precise Traders viable trades
This webinar is the last in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Precise Trader and Forexpros.com.
Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. This week analysts expect a figure of 449.00K.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2601, and jumped sturdily as it was expected after this break, stopping only a couple of pips before our suggested target 1.2737 (yesterdays high was 1.2735), in what indicates just how important this target/resistance area is. Technically, the most important event of the past 24 hours was a new touch of the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, as if the Euro is seeking to score a record in how many times it is touching its channel. This clearly shifts all lights to the top of this channel, this area deserves our absolute attention, The Euro & the Dollar, are both in a make it or break it situation! The importance of (at least) the 4th test of this channel top is absolutely enormous, it is the single most important factor in determining medium term direction: from here we will see the Euro soaring for hundreds of pips, of the Dollar dragging it down for hundreds of pips. Short term resistance is at yesterdays top 1.2735, if broken, we will quick-jump to 1.2801, and may be then 1.2888. The support is at 1.2691, and a decisive break here will indicate that we are drifting away from the channel top, and will most probably lead to a hard fall to 1.2552, and may be 1.2442.
Support:
1.2691: important intraday level.
1.2552: last Wednesdays low.
1.2442: May 18th high.
Resistance:
1.2735: yesterdays top.
1.2801: May 11th high.
1.2888: April 20th low.
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USD/JPY
In what seems like a hint that the Dollar is going on with its rising correction, the USDJPY jumped and broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 88.76, touched 89 as it topped at 89.09 during the Asian session. In spite of the shooting star pattern on the daily chart, we believe that the Dollar is trying to reach Fibonacci 50% of wave 3. And we still believe as well that the wave count we introduced last week is providing us with the most probable scenario: we are in a wave 4 correction (please refer to the attached chart). Short term resistance is at 89.09, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar will continue to capitalize its latest bounce, which will ideally target Fibonacci levels for wave 3: 89.52 & 90.13. Support is at 88.42, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 87.35 & 86.47. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the medium term. But we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up targeting Fibonacci levels: a bounce is highly probable, and it is most likely to be just a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
88.42: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.
87.35: an obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09 low.
86.47: previous well known support.
Resistance:
89.09: Asian session top.
89.52: Fibonacci 50% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
90.13: Fibonacci 61.8% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Live Trading with Price Level Principle (PLP) - Part III
Expert: Rajoo C
When: Thu, July 15, 2010, 11 GMT
In this session, Rajoo C will discuss the topics of:
1. Identifying entry, exit & stop loss level
2. How to choose the best cross to trade out of 36 currency crosses
3. Q&A
4. Precise Traders viable trades
This webinar is the last in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Precise Trader and Forexpros.com.
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy.
The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD Analysts predict a future reading of 0.10%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.2735, and advanced as it was expected after this break, only to stop clearly before our suggested target 1.2801. Technically, the most important event of the past 24 hours was a new touch of the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, as if the Euro is seeking to score a record in how many times it is touching its channel. This clearly shifts all lights to the top of this channel, this area deserves our absolute attention, The Euro & the Dollar, are both in a make it or break it situation! The importance of (at least) the 5th test of this channel top is absolutely enormous, it is the single most important factor in determining medium term direction: from here we will see the Euro soaring for hundreds of pips, of the Dollar dragging it down for hundreds of pips. Short term resistance is at yesterdays top 1.2768, if broken, we will jump to 1.2888, and may be then 1.2979. The support is at 1.2727, and a decisive break here will indicate that we are drifting away from the channel top, and will most probably lead to a hard fall to 1.2607, and may be 1.2542.
Support:
1.2727: the rising trend line from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
1.2607: last Fridays low.
1.2542: the slowly rising trend line from.
Resistance:
1.2776: yesterdays top.
1.2888: April 20th low.
1.2979: May 4th low.
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USD/JPY
In yet another move of its conflicting move which covered the last 2 days, the Dollar/Yen moved back to the direction concordant with the shooting star pattern on the daily chart, as it broke the support specified in yesterdays report 88.42, but the following shallow move bottomed at 88.00. We still believe that the wave count we introduced last week is providing us with the most probable scenario: we are in a wave 4 correction (please refer to the attached chart). Short term resistance is at 88.64, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar will continue to capitalize on its latest bounce, which will ideally target Fibonacci levels for wave 3: 89.52 & 90.13. Support is at 88.00, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 87.35 & 86.47. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the medium term. But we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up targeting Fibonacci levels: a bounce is highly probable, and it is most likely to be just a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!
Support:
88.00: Asian session low.
87.35: an obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09 low.
86.47: previous well known support.
Resistance:
88.64: the falling trend line from Wednesdays high on intraday charts.
89.52: Fibonacci 50% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
90.13: Fibonacci 61.8% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10 ET
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading strategies that are effective and easy to learn.
During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) decision on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. The analysts predict a future reading of 0.75%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro stopped only 8 pips into the resistance specified in Fridays report (Fridays & last weeks high was 1.3005), before retreating to areas slightly below 1.29. This shows just how important this resistance is, which is probably the level most qualified to turn the Euro around, and resize this soaring move into a correction! This strong & sharp jump is a natural fruit of breaking the top of the channel after touching it for a record number of times, but eventually the Euro managed to break it! After that serious barrier, the energized Euro had faced even a harder one: Fibonacci 61.8% for the giant move down from 1.3690 to 1.1875. This level is at 1.2997, and will act as a heavy weight barrier in the face of this rise, which in spite of the fact that it has achieved more than 1000 pips so far, it still looks corrective (simply because it did not break the divine ratio 61.8%). Now, even after a drop of more than 100 pips from Fridays top, 1.2997 will still be the most important resistance in the neighborhood, only a break here means more gains. If broken, we will soar above 1.30 for the first time in more than 2 months, and we will target 1.3092 & 1.3153. On the other hand, the support is at 1.2889, breaking it would indicate that we are drifting away from 1.2997. And that will target 1.2820 & the important 1.2707.
Support:
1.2889: important intraday level.
1.2820: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
1.2707: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
1.2997: Fibonacci 61.8% for the massive dive from 1.3690 to 1.1875.
1.3092: May 10th high.
1.3153: May 3th low.
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USD/JPY
The headline of Fridays USDJPYs reports was Odds are we are already in wave 5, today, we can take another step and confirm that assumption, we are definitely in the downward wave 5! The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in Fridays report 86.95 and successfully reached the first suggested target 86.47. If we look at the attached chart, we will see that the Yens strength has penetrated the lows of last December & January. This leaves us with no notable support protecting the 15-year low which was reached last November at 84.81! We will not be a bit surprised if this pair started to move in that direction, and tried to break that low! On the contrary, we have been expecting this for weeks now, and it was included in our reports several times. Short term support is at 86.46, and if broken, the price will continue searching for new lows, targeting 85.84, then the 15-year low 84.81. Resistance is presented by the falling trend line from Wednesdays tops, which is currently running at 87.08. If broken, we will target short term Fibonacci levels 87.67 & the important 88.01.
Support:
86.46: Asian session low.
85.84: Nov 30th low.
84.81: Now 27th low, and the lowest level since 1995!.
Resistance:
87.08: the falling trend line from Wednesdays high on the hourly chart.
87.67: short term Fibonacci 50% level.
88.01: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10:00a.m. ET
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading strategies that are effective and easy to learn.
During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve Chairman, will be testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
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Euro Dollar
Although the Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays reports 1.2889, but it did not reach or even come close to the suggested target 1.2820, as if it was still not ready to drift away from 1.30 yet. On Friday, the Euro topped at 1.3005, just 8 pips above the resistance that captured all of our attention: 1.2997. This shows just how important this resistance is, which is probably the level most qualified to turn the Euro around, and resize this soaring move into a correction! This strong & sharp jump is a natural fruit of breaking the top of the channel after touching it for a record number of times, but eventually the Euro managed to break it! After that serious barrier, the energized Euro had faced even a harder one: Fibonacci 61.8% for the giant move down from 1.3690 to 1.1875. This level is at 1.2997, and will act as a heavy weight barrier in the face of this rise, which in spite of the fact that it has achieved more than 1000 pips so far, it still looks corrective (simply because it did not break the divine ratio 61.8%). Now, even after a drop of more than 130 pips from Fridays top, 1.2997 will still be the most important resistance in the neighborhood, only a break here means more gains. If broken, we will soar above 1.30 for the first time in more than 2 months, and we will target 1.3092 & 1.3153. On the other hand, the support has shifted dramatically to 1.2952, breaking it would indicate that we are drifting away from 1.2997. And that will target 1.2820 & 1.2764.
Support:
1.2952: the rising trend line from Jul 13th low.
1.2820: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
1.2764: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
Resistance:
1.2997: Fibonacci 61.8% for the massive dive from 1.3690 to 1.1875.
1.3092: May 10th high.
1.3153: May 3th low..
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USD/JPY
After the Yens strength penetrated the lows of last December & January, we were left with no notable support protecting the 15-year low which was reached last November at 84.81! We will not be a bit surprised if this pair started to move in that direction, and tried to break that low! On the contrary, we have been expecting this for weeks now, and it was included in our reports several times. But, signs show that the possibility of a rising correction is growing, to correct the drop from Wednesdays top 89.09 to Fridays low 86.25. On the top of these signs: the inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart. Therefore, and even though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term support is at 86.78, and if broken, the price will continue searching for new lows, targeting 85.84, then the 15-year low 84.81. Resistance is presented by the falling trend line from Wednesdays tops, which is at the first Fibonacci level 87.33, if broken we will ideally target short term Fibonacci level 88.01 & if broken a quick jump to 88.64 is to be expected.
Support:
86.76: the rising trend line from yesterdays low.
85.84: Nov 30th low.
84.81: Now 27th low, and the lowest level since 1995!.
Resistance:
87.33: short term Fibonacci 38.2% level.
88.01: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
88.64: the falling trend line from Jun 4th on hourly chart.
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Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
