Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10:00a.m. ET
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading strategies that are effective and easy to learn.
During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 445.00K.
---
Euro Dollar
Although the Euro penetrated 1.30 and reached 1.3026, it dropped hard, breaking the support of yesterdays report 1.2952, and bottoming just ahead of our suggested target and at 1.2838. With that, we have even more evidence of a reversal, most important factors in this conception are: 1. No daily close above 1.2997 & 2. A reversal day pattern for yesterdays bar/candle on the daily chart. This shows just how important the area around 1.30 is, which is probably the level most qualified to turn the Euro around, and resize this soaring move into a correction! This strong & sharp jump is a natural fruit of breaking the top of the channel after touching it for a record number of times, but eventually the Euro managed to break it! After that serious barrier, the energized Euro had faced even a harder one: Fibonacci 61.8% for the giant move down from 1.3690 to 1.1875. This level is at 1.2997, and will act as a heavy weight barrier in the face of this rise, which in spite of the fact that it has achieved more than 1000 pips so far, it still looks corrective (simply because it did not break the divine ratio 61.8% by closing above it). Now, even after a drop of more than 190 pips from yesterdays top, 1.2997 will still be the most important resistance in the neighborhood, only a break here means more gains. If broken, we will soar above 1.30 for the first time in more than 2 months, and we will target 1.3092 & 1.3153. On the other hand, the support has shifted down to 1.2869, breaking it would indicate that we are drifting away from 1.2997. And that will target 1.2764 & 1.2707.
Support:
1.2869: Mondays low.
1.2764: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
1.2707: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
1.2997: Fibonacci 61.8% for the massive dive from 1.3690 to 1.1875.
1.3092: May 10th high.
1.3153: May 3th low.
---
USD/JPY
No change for yesterdays outlook, after the Yens strength penetrated the lows of last December & January, we were left with no notable support protecting the 15-year low which was reached last November at 84.81! We will not be a bit surprised if this pair started to move in that direction, and tried to break that low! On the contrary, we have been expecting this for weeks now, and it was included in our reports several times. But, signs show that the possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from Wednesdays top 89.09 to Fridays low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these signs: the inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and the completed 5-wave move (please refer to the attached chart). Therefore, and even though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term support is at 86.94, and if broken, the price will continue searching for new lows, targeting 86.25, then the 15-year low 84.81. Resistance is presented by the Fibonacci level 88.01. A break here indicates that the odds of correction the whole 5 waves down from 92.87 are becoming massive. This will target 88.78 & 89.56.
Support:
86.94: the bottom of the rising trend channel from Fridays low on the hourly chart.
86.25: Fridays low.
84.81: Now 27th low, and the lowest level since 1995!.
Resistance:
88.01: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves down).
89.56: Fibonacci 50% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves down).
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10:00a.m. ET
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading strategies that are effective and easy to learn.
During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index
The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone. The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. The analysts predict a future reading of 0.60%.
---
Euro Dollar
Precisely as we have expected, the long awaited reversal has finally started. It came in a time after the Euro penetrated 1.30 and everybody was cheering for it! However, it broke the support specified in yesterdays report at 1.2869, and successfully reached the suggested target 1.2764. The evidences we provided in yesterdays report has triumphed for the technical analysis, over other things which favored the Euro! We have mentioned evidence of a reversal yesterday, especially: 1. No daily close above 1.2997 & 2. A reversal day pattern for yesterdays bar/candle on the daily chart. This shows just how important the area around 1.30 is, which is probably the level most qualified to turn the Euro around, and resize this soaring move into a correction! This strong & sharp jump is a natural fruit of breaking the top of the channel after touching it for a record number of times, but eventually the Euro managed to break it! After that serious barrier, the energized Euro had faced even a harder one: Fibonacci 61.8% for the giant move down from 1.3690 to 1.1875. This level is at 1.2997, and will act as a heavy weight barrier in the face of this rise, which in spite of the fact that it has achieved more than 1000 pips so far, it still looks corrective (simply because it did not break the divine ratio 61.8% by closing above it). Short term analysis shows a support at 1.2747, and breaking it would officially declare that we are in a downward correction for the whole move from 1.2150 to 1.3026. The ideal targets for this correction are at: 1.2588 & 1.2485. As for the resistance, it is at 1.2793. A break here would indicate initiation of a correction for the whole move down from 1.3026, with the ideal target for this correction at 1.2913. If this one is broken, we will test 1.3026 itself once more!
Support:
1.2747: the rising trend lien from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
1.2588: Fibonacci 50% for the rising move from 1.2150.
1.2485: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.2150.
Resistance:
1.2793: the falling trend line from 1.3026 on hourly chart.
1.2913: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3026 to yesterdays low.
1.3026: Tuesdays & 2-month high.
---
USD/JPY
No change for yesterdays outlook, after the Yens strength penetrated the lows of last December & January, we were left with no notable support protecting the 15-year low which was reached last November at 84.81! We will not be a bit surprised if this pair started to move in that direction, and tried to break that low! On the contrary, we have been expecting this for weeks now, and it was included in our reports several times. But, signs show that the possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from Wednesdays top 89.09 to Fridays low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these signs: the inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and the completed 5-wave move (please refer to the attached chart). Therefore, and even though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term support is at 86.25, and if broken, the price will continue searching for new lows, targeting 85.84, then the 15-year low 84.81. Resistance is at 86.95. A break here indicates that the odds of correction the whole 5 waves down from 92.87 are becoming massive. This will target 88.01 which could prove troublesome first, then 88.78. It is worth mentioning that breaking 86.25 even with a few pips will leave the odds of a rising correction dramatically lower than they are now.
Support:
86.25: Fridays low.
85.84: Nov 30th low.
84.81: Now 27th low, and the lowest level since 1995!
Resistance:
86.95: the falling trend line from Tuesdays top on the hourly chart.
88.01: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves down).
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10:00a.m. ET
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading
strategies that are effective and easy to learn.
During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade
the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis
and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
The Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in
economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer
spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher
readings point to higher consumer optimism. A higher than expected reading
should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected
reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts
predict a future reading of 51.00.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro fluctuated violently on Friday, breaking both the support &
resistance specified in the report, but only reaching the target in the case
of the support. After breaking 1.2860, the Euro reached the first suggested
target 1.2807 successfully. When looking at the hourly chart, we find that
Friday's dive has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will
be placed under our focus for today. The bottom of the channel is at 1.2807,
but after the strong bounce we seen late Friday, the price built another
support ahead of the channel bottom at 1.2883. In case we break today's
support (1.2883) we will drop to test the bottom of the channel at 1.2807 as
a first target. And if this one is also broke, then the rising channel is
broken, which would leave the Euro vulnerable to more downside activity,
targeting 1.2731 as a first & immediate target for this break on the way to
lower targets. On the other hand, the resistance is at the important 1.2942.
If broken, the price will resume its bounce from channel bottom, targeting
yet another test of 1.3026, and may be then 1.3075.
Support:
* 1.2883: the rising trend line from Friday's low on intraday charts.
* 1.2807: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 1.2731: yesterday's low.
Resistance:
* 1.2942: Asian session top, and the falling trend line from last weeks top
on the hourly chart.
* 1.3026: Tuesday's & 2-month high.
* 1.3075: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816 to 1.1875.
---
USD/JPY
As we have said several times in last week's reports, signs show that the
possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from June 3rd top
89.09 to July 16th low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these signs: the
inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and the
completed 5-wave move, and further more what looks to be the corrective
waves (a) & (b) forming in an ideal manner (please refer to the attached
chart), and wave (c) developing in an ideal fashion. Therefore, and even
though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not
neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term
support is at 87.33, and if broken, the price will resume its drop after a
3-wave correction, targeting 86.72 & 85.84. Resistance is at 87.67. A break
here indicates that the odds of c continuation of the correction of the 5
waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will target 88.37, then 88.78.
It is worth mentioning that breaking wave 5 bottom 86.25 even with a few
pips would strongly indicate the termination of the correction we are
currently living.
Support:
* 87.33: the rising trend line from Thursday's low on the hourly chart.
* 86.72: Friday's low.
* 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.
Resistance:
* 87.67: important hourly resistance, stopped the price several times after
the open.
* 88.37: Jul 12th low.
* 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves
down).
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10:00a.m. ET
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading
strategies that are effective and easy to learn.
During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade
the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis
and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
The Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new
orders for durable goods, excluding transportation. Because aircraft orders
are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers. A higher than
expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a
lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The analysts predict a future reading of 0.60%.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro survived just above the support we presented in yesterday's report
1.2883 with amazing accuracy (yesterday's low was 1.2886). Then it went all
the way up to break yesterday's resistance 1.2942, and it is still
approaching the suggested target 1.3026 as we speak (the high until the
moment of preparing this report is 1.3016). Therefore, we await a test of
the important resistance 1.3026, where there is the 2-month high. But, we
will not lose interest in our newly found rising channel we talked about
yesterday, and when we look at the hourly chart, we find that Friday's dive
has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will be placed under
our focus for today, knowing that the bottom of the channel is at 1.2872.
Moreover, we find the area between Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3075 and May 10th
top 1.3092 to be very interesting. Thus, we recommend giving attention to
all these areas, and we believe that each of them will play a role in
dictating today's direction! In case we break the support at 1.2872, we will
drop with the Euro for today and probably the next few days, targeting
1.2792, and 1.2691. On the other side, the resistance is at the important
1.3026. If broken, the Euro will continue its bounce from the channel
bottom, targeting 1.3092 & 1.3200.
Support:
* 1.2872: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 1.2792: Friday's low.
* 1.2691: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.2150.
Resistance:
* 1.3026: last Tuesday's & 2-month high.
* 1.3092: May 10th high.
* 1.3200: Apr 23rd low.
---
USD/JPY
As we have said several times in last week's reports, signs show that the
possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from June 3rd top
89.09 to July 16th low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these signs: the
inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and the
completed 5-wave move, and further more what looks to be the corrective
waves (a) & (b) forming in an ideal manner (please refer to the attached
chart), and wave (c) developing in an ideal fashion. Therefore, and even
though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not
neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term
support is at 86.81, and if broken, the price will resume its drop after a
3-wave correction, targeting 85.84 & 84.81. Resistance is at 87.37. A break
here indicates that the odds of c continuation of the correction of the 5
waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will target 88.01, then 88.78.
It is worth mentioning that breaking wave 5 bottom 86.25 even with a few
pips would strongly indicate the termination of the correction we are
currently living, and will officially announce a new wave down!
Support:
* 86.81: obvious hourly support, which has been tested several times during
the Asian session.
* 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years!
Resistance:
* 87.37: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.
* 88.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 89.09.
* 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves
down).
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10:00a.m. ET
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading
strategies that are effective and easy to learn.
During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade
the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis
and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of
people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the
given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published
as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the
health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are
fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite
volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a
meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future
reading of 464.00K.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro didn't even come close to the support specified in yesterday's
report 1.2872, finding a bottom at 1.2950, and refusing to drift away from
the 1.30 level for more than half a cent, before trying to break 1.3026,
without being able to hold above it. Therefore, once again, we await a test
of the important resistance 1.3026, where there is the 2-month high. But, we
will not lose interest in our newly found rising channel we talked about
yesterday, and when we look at the hourly chart, we find that Friday's dive
has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will be placed under
our focus for today, knowing that the bottom of the channel is at 1.2903.
Moreover, we find the area between Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3075 and May 10th
top 1.3092 to be very interesting. Thus, we recommend giving attention to
all these areas, and we believe that each of them will play a role in
dictating today's direction! In case we break the support at 1.2903, we will
drop with the Euro for today and probably the next few days, targeting
1.2792, and 1.2691. On the other side, the resistance is at the important
1.3026. If broken, the Euro will continue its bounce from the channel
bottom, targeting 1.3092 & 1.3200.
Support:
* 1.2903: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 1.2792: Friday's low.
* 1.2691: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.2150.
Resistance:
* 1.3026: Jul 20th top & 2-month high.
* 1.3092: May 10th high.
* 1.3200: Apr 23rd low.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar penetrated the resistance specified in yesterday's report 87.37,
and came extremely close to the suggested target 88.01 (yesterday's high was
87.96). As we have said several times in last week's reports, signs show
that the possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from June
3rd top 89.09 to July 16th low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these signs:
the inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and the
completed 5-wave move, and further more what looks to be the corrective
waves (a) & (b) forming in an ideal manner (please refer to the attached
chart), and wave (c) developing in an ideal fashion, and approaching one of
its ideal targets (short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 88.01). Therefore,
and even though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we
should not neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today!
Short term support is at 87.25, and if broken, the price will resume its
drop after a 3-wave correction, targeting 86.46 & 85.84. Resistance is at
88.01. A break here indicates that the odds of a continuation of the
correction of the 5 waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will
target Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole drop from 92.87, with the
first 2 of them at 88.78 & 89.56. It is worth mentioning that breaking wave
5 bottom 86.25 even with a few pips would strongly indicate the termination
of the correction we are currently living, and will officially announce a
new wave down!
Support:
* 87.25: the rising trend line from Jul 22nd low on the hourly chart.
* 86.46: Jul 19th low.
* 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.
Resistance:
* 88.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 89.09.
* 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves
down).
* 89.56: Fibonacci 50% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves
down).
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Let's do some simple Trend Trading
Expert: Kellie Durazo
When: Tue, August 17, 2010, 10:00a.m. ET
Why spend hours analyzing charts when you can learn a few simple trading
strategies that are effective and easy to learn.
During this webinar, Kellie Durazo will teach you how to follow and trade
the trend "making the trend your friend", enhancing your technical analysis
and giving you more trading opportunities for profit in the fx market.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic
activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The Annualized
(quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the
economy as a whole. Consumption is by far the largest component in the GDP
of the US and has the most affect on it. The figures can be quite volatile
from quarter to quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish
for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 2.50%.
---
Euro Dollar
For the second day in a raw, the Euro didn't even come close to the support
specified in yesterday's report 1.2903, finding a bottom at 1.2967, and
refusing to drift away from the 1.30 level for more than a third of a cent,
before trying to break 1.3026, only to stop 2 pips above it. Therefore, we
await a test of the set of important resistance levels in the neighborhood
1.3026, 1.3044, and 1.3035, the last of which is our favorite, since it is
presented by the trend line drawn from Tuesday's high on hourly chart. But,
we will not lose interest in our newly found rising channel we talked about
yesterday, and when we look at the hourly chart, we find that Friday's dive
has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will be placed under
our focus for today, knowing that the bottom of the channel is just below
1.2980. Moreover, we find the area between Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3075 and May
10th top 1.3092 to be very interesting. Thus, we recommend giving attention
to all these areas, and we believe that each of them will play a role in
dictating today's direction! In case we break the support at 1.2980, we will
drop with the Euro for today and probably the next few days, targeting
1.2888, and 1.2737. On the other side, the resistance is at the important
1.3035. If broken, the Euro will continue its bounce from the channel
bottom, targeting 1.3092 & 1.3200.
Support:
* 1.2980: the rising trend line from Tuesday's low on the hourly chart.
* 1.2888: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from Jul 21st bottom to
Jul 27th top.
* 1.2737: a well known support resistance area, which includes a number of
daily extremes, such as May 12th high, and Jul 22nd low.
Resistance:
* 1.3035: the falling trend line from Jul 20th top & 2-month high on the
hourly chart.
* 1.3092: May 10th high.
* 1.3200: Apr 23rd low.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen reached the first of the "ideal" targets for this rising
correction: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 88.01, and then retreated
sharply, dropping for more than 100 pips, which could be read as an
"exhaustion" in upside activity. Therefore, and even though we are negative
about this pair on the medium term, we should not neglect these signs which
force themselves upon us for today! Short term support is at the seriously
important 86.81, and if broken, the price will resume its drop after a
3-wave correction, targeting 85.84 & 84.81. Resistance is at 88.01. A break
here indicates that the odds of a continuation of the correction of the 5
waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will target Fibonacci
retracement levels for the whole drop from 92.87, with the first 2 of them
at 88.78 & 89.56. It is worth mentioning that breaking wave 5 bottom 86.25
even with a few pips would strongly indicate the termination of the
correction we are currently living, and will officially announce a new wave
down!
Support:
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, the bottom of the corrective channel, and an
obvious hourly support. The most important short & medium term support
without a shadow of a doubt.
* 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
Resistance:
* 88.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 89.09.
* 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves
down).
* 89.56: Fibonacci 50% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves
down).
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex
Trading to Start Winning
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT
Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one
direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?
Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take
care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up
of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful
driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in
Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your
direction right and increase your win rate.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision on short term interest rate.
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook
and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price
stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best
"risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand
for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower
than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD. The analysts predict a
future reading of 4.50%.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke support specified in yesterday's report 1.3028, and came
close to hitting the suggested target of 1.2962, but it stopped a few steps
before it, then it bounced clearly. It is clear that the Euro is facing some
difficulties ahead of and around 1.31: there is the well known resistance
1.3092, Friday's top 1.3105, and now we can also see that after the open,
the price has bumped into 1.3086 a couple of times during the Asian session.
If the price can go back to trade above 1.3086, reaching 1.32 (and above)
will be only a matter of time! The targets in this case will be 1.3200 & the
bottom we still remember 1.3266. On the other hand, short term 61.8%
Fibonacci level has became the most important support for today, especially
that it is just above the rising trend line from June 29th low on the hourly
chart. In case we break this support which is at 1.3020, the price will drop
& correct the whole move up from Tuesday's low 1.2731 to yesterday's top,
which will ideally target the area between 1.2950 & 1.2874. It is worth
mentioning that the latter is the most important support for the time being.
Support:
* 1.3020: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from Friday's low.
* 1.2950: Jun 27th low.
* 1.2874: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from Jul 21st low to Friday's
high.
Resistance:
* 1.3086: Asian session high, tested twice.
* 1.3200: Apr 23rd low.
* 1.3266: Apr 25th important bottom.
---
USD/JPY
Finally, we have clearly surpassed wave 5 bottom, which indicates that the
correction we have been monitoring for the past days is finally over, which
makes it official: we are in a new down wave! But the bounce from Friday's
low 85.93, which is closing on the important resistance 86.81 this morning,
warns of a correction to what we have seen of the new wave so far (the drop
from 88.10 to 85.93). Nevertheless, with a correction in these areas, or
without, dropping far below 86 and may be below 84.81 itself has turned into
a most probable scenario. The resistance which will determine if this bounce
from Friday's low will go on or stall, is 86.81. If broken, the Dollar will
keep shooting higher, targeting 87.49 & then what we imagine as the
"ceiling" for the price at this stage 88.10. But, if we break the exciting
support 86.25 instead, we will start dropping to areas below Friday's low,
we find 85.60 & 84.81 to be the most attractive of which.
Support:
* 86.25: Jul 16th low, just 2 pip below Thursday's low.
* 85.60: the falling trend line combining the daily lows of Jul 1st & 16th.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex
Trading to Start Winning
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT
Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one
direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?
Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take
care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up
of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful
driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in
Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your
direction right and increase your win rate.
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor
force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work
in New-Zealand.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage
is a positive indicator for the labor market in New-Zealand and should be
taken as positive for the NZD. The analysts predict a future reading of
6.20%.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3086, and came
very close to hitting the suggested target of 1.3200, but it stopped only 6
pips before it, then it spent the night in a tight range between 1.3183 &
1.3150. With this, the Euro jumped strongly, but this jump has not reached
its target yet. Naturally, we expect more of the same today, and soaring
above 1.32. But, before we get overexcited, we must wait for a break of the
falling trend line from yesterday's top on intraday chart, which is running
currently at 1.3174. If we do break this line, the Euro will start rising
again, and we will target 1.3266 first, and may be at a later time 1.3325.
On the other hand, short term 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3112 will be our
support of the day. If broken, a correction will be initiated, and the price
will start giving up yesterday's gains. This will target a test of a very
noteworthy trend line at 1.3040. If this is also broken, the positive
technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will target 1.2952.
Support:
* 1.3112: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from Friday's low.
* 1.3040: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, and also Jul 28th high.
* 1.2952: a well known previous support resistance, which includes several
daily highs and lows, among those Jul 27th high, and Jul 15th low.
Resistance:
* 1.3174: the falling trend line from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
* 1.3266: Apr 25th important bottom.
* 1.3325: Apr 7th low.
---
USD/JPY
No change! Nothing of any technical importance took place yesterday,
therefore, we still hold the same technical outlook we did yesterday. After
we have clearly surpassed wave 5 bottom, the correction we have been
monitoring for the past days is finally over, and it is official: we are in
a new down wave! But the bounce from Friday's low 85.93, which is closing on
the important resistance 86.81 this morning, warns of a correction to what
we have seen of the new wave so far (the drop from 88.10 to 85.93).
Nevertheless, with a correction in these areas, or without, dropping far
below 86 and may be below 84.81 itself has turned into a most probable
scenario. The resistance which will determine if this bounce from Friday's
low will go on or stall, is 86.81. If broken, the Dollar will keep shooting
higher, targeting 87.49 & then what we imagine as the "ceiling" for the
price at this stage 88.10. But, if we break the exciting support 86.25
instead, we will start dropping to areas below Friday's low, we find 85.52 &
84.81 to be the most attractive of which.
Support:
* 86.25: Jul 16th low, just 2 pip below Thursday's low.
* 85.52: the falling trend line combining the daily lows of Jul 1st & 16th.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex
Trading to Start Winning
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT
Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one
direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?
Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take
care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up
of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful
driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in
Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your
direction right and increase your win rate.
The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of
people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the
given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published
as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the
health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are
fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a
meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 455.00K.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3174, and came
very close to hitting the suggested target of 1.3200, but it stopped (for
the second day in a row) only 6 pips before it, before retreating
significantly to 1.3181. The fact that the rising move is slowing down warns
of a possible correction for the whole rise from Friday's low. Such a
correction would be a violent one, with its size a little less than 200
pips, since its ideal target is at 1.3086. Therefore, we should keep eyes &
mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading plans
ready. What is requested from the Euro now is to break the resistance 1.3227
which it is trading almost 20 pips below. This resistance is the key to more
fireworks, and is the key to 1.33. If broken, we will target 1.3311 first,
and at a later time 1.3383 as well. On the other hand, correction
possibilities remain weak as long as we are trading above 1.3153. But if
broken, we will be already in a short term correction, which will ideally
target the single most important support for now 1.3086. And if this one is
also broken, we will drop to test Friday's low 1.2979.
Support:
* 1.3153: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from Friday's low.
* 1.3086: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, and Fibonacci 61.8%
retracement level for the rise from Friday's low. The single most important
support for the time being.
* 1.2979Friday's low, and the launch point of this recent rising move.
Resistance:
* 1.3227: the falling trend line from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
* 1.3311: Mar 24th low.
* 1.3383: Mar 31st low.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen dropped in the down wave we have talked about, it broke the
support specified in yesterday's report 86.25, and successfully reached the
first suggested target 85.52. With this, the first target of the falling
wave is met, but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is
a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the
bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is
an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08,
Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a
perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did
before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to
reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited volatility
of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the short term,
the support is at 85.31, and breaking it would indicate that we are already
moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not
seen in 15 years. This break will target 84.81 first, then 83.87. The
resistance is at 86.02, and if broken, we will target the important 86.81,
then 87.49.
Support:
* 85.31: Asian session low.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
Resistance:
* 86.02: the falling trend line from 88.10 on the hourly chart.
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an obvious hourly support.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex
Trading to Start Winning
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT
Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one
direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?
Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take
care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up
of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful
driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in
Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your
direction right and increase your win rate.
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor
force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work
in the US. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low
percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should
be taken as positive for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of
9.60%.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke both the support and resistance specified in yesterday's
report, without being able to reach the targets specified. However, the
dollar managed to drag the Euro to 1.3130. And as we said yesterday's
report: "The fact that the rising move is slowing down warns of a possible
correction for the whole rise from Friday's low. Such a correction would be
a violent one, with its size a little less than 200 pips, since its ideal
target is at 1.3086." And up until now, we have seen the price dropping from
Tuesday's top almost 130 pips! Technically, what is really important is that
we are approaching a very important trend line, and are about to test it:
the trend line rising from June 29th low on hourly the chart, which is
running very close to yesterday's low. Therefore, we should keep eyes & mind
open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading plans
ready. If we test the above mentioned trend line, it will be the single most
important technical event for the rest of the week. This line is at 1.3130,
and should not be broken in order to keep the technical outlook positive.
But if broken, we will witness a strong drop to 1.3026 at least, and
probably will be followed by a test of the important 1.2933 as well. On the
other hand, short term resistance is at 1.3194, and it is the key for more
gains. If we break it, we will target 1.3311 & 1.3383.
Support:
* 1.3130: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low & yesterday's low. The
single most important support for the time being.
* 1.3026: Jul 20th high.
* 1.2933: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.2731.
Resistance:
* 1.3194: the falling trend line from Tuesday's high on intraday charts.
* 1.3311: Mar 24th low.
* 1.3383: Mar 31st low.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar/Yen did not break the support specified in yesterday's report,
not even with a single pip. It consolidated above it, and edged higher until
it reached 86.43. We can classify that as a clear attempt to rebound, coming
after the current falling wave (which we talked about several times) has
reached its first suggested target at 85.52. Nevertheless, we see these
attempts as weak and shallow. We believe the falling wave will continue to
seek lower targets, after a limited correction, but what are the next
targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the
falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very
far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line
inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is
around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping
wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below
84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we
also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this
will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85.74, and
breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the
objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This
break will target 84.81 first, then 83.87. The resistance is at 86.58, and
if broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting 87.49 & the
important 88.10.
Support:
* 85.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday's bounce.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
Resistance:
* 86.58: the retest level for the rising trend line which combines the lows
of Jul 16th & 22nd.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
* 88.10: Jul 28th high.
---
Forextrading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
