Did data analysis for UP. Based on % vote received by each party in 2014 general election, I have come up with magic number of 43 seats, BJP going to win in UP (give or take 4 seats).
Method:
No emotions involved, just votes secured in last election. Thus it takes into consideration that Modi-Lahar is still there and people are angry at congress/sp/bsp.
The votes for BSP and SP are combined for each constituencies. If they are same or less than BJP vote %, it's win for BJP. If combine vote is 2-3% more than BJP, it's still advantage BJP (benefit of doubt).
Analysis is based on numbers, no caste, religion etc was taken into account so yes, it could turn wrong.
It doesn't consider if SP or BSP candidates are fighting on each other's stronghold resulting in advantage BJP. That's why 10% error margin.
