FT bhai - I am sharing my opinion here about what and why I mentioned in my earlier post -
- Foremost - premiums are not reliable indicators at all. I have seen Nifty moving up 400 points with Fut in discount throught the move.
- Not all changes in premiums can be ignored. So for example - I only consider
noticeable contrary changes. So for example.. If Nifty is moving up for 3 days consistently and during this time the premium takes a major dip., or vice versa.
- Today I mentioned and considered it for 2 strong reasons. Today was a flat day after opening, and premiums moved to flat from 15 points within 5 mins,
after 3 PM. This along with jump in put premiums was a change which cant be ignored. Nifty after gap up , has shown a very clear resistance at the drawn line in the attached image - hence the conclusion of gap down.
PS - My analysis may be completely wrong w.r.t. what market actually will do on monday, and I will handle my trade accordingly.
Not necessary - yesterday also put premiums pepped up and index fut premiums moved from discount to premium. But we didn't had gap down today