General Trading Chat

[ap*]

Sold my puts from long strangle in loss and holding the calls. Futures long hit sl in the flash downmove so that's an exit for me after a week of being long. Could've had a lot more bn points in the bag had I trailed my position closer.

Does the flash upmove seem like short covering ? Asking cuz bn trading at pe levels of above 30 there's always the risk of correction. Think il wait to find the best opportunity to short ( in the words of someone I follow "the point at which my loss is the least ")

 

[headstrong007]

Today RBI officially express concern about increasing Crude price and Rupee weakness..creating pressure on inflation...

Except for 2014-15 period, nifty seems to move with the crude oil.

Look at chart closely.. charts are no synchronized..

Last 2 yrears no effect on nifty bcoz crude range was low..now things are different than last 2 yrs..
Falling crude prices helped India control fiscal deficit for last 2 years..But no such benefit even at 50-55 range Crude. And 55-60 range will put inflation pressure soon..more with further Rupee weakness..

Not more than 25bps rate cut possible in this year.. IMO..
Soon we can see rate increase if crude go to 60-70 range in late half and a breakout in USD INR later, which is obvious on yearly chart...

 

[timepass]

Today RBI officially express concern about increasing Crude price and Rupee weakness..creating pressure on inflation...



Yes but this was possible only bcoz crude range was low..now things are different than last 2 yrs..
Falling crude prices helped India control fiscal deficit for last 2 years..But no such benefit even at 50-55 range Crude. And 55-60 range will put inflation pressure soon..more with further Rupee weakness..

Not more than 25bps rate cut possible in this year.. IMO..
Soon we can see rate increase if crude go to 60-70 range in late half and a breakout in USD INR later, which is obvious on yearly chart...

But that may not be negative for the index overall. Maybe rubber, paints, airlines etc. will go down but the biggies (OMCs etc.) will shore up the index. Hope you remember Reliance trading above 4000 in 2007-08 (don't remember exactly).

 

[headstrong007]

But that may not be negative for the index overall.

This is negative for whole economy, difficult to control inflation and fiscal deficit with high crude price and rupee weakness..fii also sell on rupee weakness..dii can't support the market single handly..rbi will start rate increasing if inflation is out of control..
also remember there is no subsidy in crude now.. so it will directly put pressure on inflation now..our economy still not tested for the effect of high crude price without subsidy..still untested waters for bears..

 

[timepass]

Tomorrow, this may be good news for Sun TV, also maybe Rcom (because of Aircel connection).

Aircel-Maxis case: Special prosecutor withdraws plea relating to discharge of Marans

..

 

[varunkochhar]

ST ji just posted in this thread to draw your attention. I wanted to send you a PM but you have fully utilized your quota. If you could tell me an alternative way to go about it, i will be grateful.

 

[Smart_trade]

ST ji just posted in this thread to draw your attention. I wanted to send you a PM but you have fully utilized your quota. If you could tell me an alternative way to go about it, i will be grateful.

Emptied the mail box.

ST

 

[traderniftybull]

DJI in negative at present (20040)
Will it move around above 20122
or
touch around 19977

dekhte hain

 

[amitagg]

Definitely possible but i have doubts about oil going much higher

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...-2nd-biggest-crude-inventory-build-us-history

Rig counts would increase with above 50 crude and difficult to cross 3700-3800 mcx . Nevertheless it shall hit 4300-4400 but not in a hurry ..... Sidewys monthly action can follow ....

 

[timepass]

This is negative for whole economy, difficult to control inflation and fiscal deficit with high crude price and rupee weakness..fii also sell on rupee weakness..dii can't support the market single handly..rbi will start rate increasing if inflation is out of control..
also remember there is no subsidy in crude now.. so it will directly put pressure on inflation now..our economy still not tested for the effect of high crude price without subsidy..still untested waters for bears..

Actually, nowadays all such correlations are getting blurred. Earlier there used to be definite correlations with the factors like FII activity, USDINR value, the dollar index, foreign markets, Baltic dry index etc. Of late, the indices seem to have a mind of their own and bypass all these in going up. The downside, whenever happens, appears to be momentary.