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This is a scary article. These numbers reveal the limited options with the government... hence reveal the haste in unlocking despite rising cases... and no matter how much we bounce back to precovid levels, this is going to be a troublesome year for govt and citizens... some observations and excerpts from the below article...
For April-July, the Centre’s fiscal deficit at Rs 8.21 trillion i.e. 103 per cent of 2020-21 budget estimates of 7.96 trillion. This was 77.8 per cent Apr-Jun last year. In 2019-20, fiscal deficit had crossed 100 per cent by October-end. This year it has crossed in June itself.
Fiscal deficit for Q1 2020-21 at 17.4 per cent of nominal GDP (presumably, GDP of this quarter). FM Sitharaman had pegged fiscal deficit for the whole year at 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2020-21.
Total revenue for April-July stood at Rs 2.33 trillion, or 10.4 per cent of budget estimate of Rs 22.45 trillion, compared to 19.2 per cent for the same period last year.
The expenditure has remained almost the same in Apr-Jun 2020 as it was in Apr-Jun 2019.
"We expect the fiscal deficit to widen to around 7-8 per cent of GDP in 2020-21 from the budgeted 3.5 per cent." - I don't see this happening if there is honest accounting... the expenditure has to be curtailed drastically and the revenues have to rise to precovid levels and GDP has to increase - two of the three has to happen in the remaining 3 quarters for this to be achieved.
At Rs 8.21 trn, April-July fiscal deficit exceeds FY21 budget estimates
With GDP for April-June also in, it can be calculated that fiscal deficit for Q1FY21 was 17.4% of nominal GDP. FM Sitharaman had pegged fiscal deficit for the year at 3.5% of GDP in 2020-21 Budget
https://www.business-standard.com/a...eds-fy21-budget-estimates-120083101431_1.html
For April-July, the Centre’s fiscal deficit at Rs 8.21 trillion i.e. 103 per cent of 2020-21 budget estimates of 7.96 trillion. This was 77.8 per cent Apr-Jun last year. In 2019-20, fiscal deficit had crossed 100 per cent by October-end. This year it has crossed in June itself.
Fiscal deficit for Q1 2020-21 at 17.4 per cent of nominal GDP (presumably, GDP of this quarter). FM Sitharaman had pegged fiscal deficit for the whole year at 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2020-21.
Total revenue for April-July stood at Rs 2.33 trillion, or 10.4 per cent of budget estimate of Rs 22.45 trillion, compared to 19.2 per cent for the same period last year.
The expenditure has remained almost the same in Apr-Jun 2020 as it was in Apr-Jun 2019.
"We expect the fiscal deficit to widen to around 7-8 per cent of GDP in 2020-21 from the budgeted 3.5 per cent." - I don't see this happening if there is honest accounting... the expenditure has to be curtailed drastically and the revenues have to rise to precovid levels and GDP has to increase - two of the three has to happen in the remaining 3 quarters for this to be achieved.
At Rs 8.21 trn, April-July fiscal deficit exceeds FY21 budget estimates
With GDP for April-June also in, it can be calculated that fiscal deficit for Q1FY21 was 17.4% of nominal GDP. FM Sitharaman had pegged fiscal deficit for the year at 3.5% of GDP in 2020-21 Budget
https://www.business-standard.com/a...eds-fy21-budget-estimates-120083101431_1.html
Factory output expands for first time since February; manufacturing PMI at 52 in August
Customer demand, output, and new orders rose at the fastest pace since February 2020.
https://www.financialexpress.com/ec...ry-manufacturing-pmi-at-52-in-august/2071250/
Customer demand, output, and new orders rose at the fastest pace since February 2020.
https://www.financialexpress.com/ec...ry-manufacturing-pmi-at-52-in-august/2071250/
Isn't this bad news for the banks ? Or maybe a presentation to favor a select few ?
Loan Moratorium Can Be Extended For 2 Years: Centre To Supreme Court
The central government on Tuesday informed Supreme Court that loan moratorium period can be extended by two years as per the RBI's circular.
https://www.ndtv.com/business/loan-...-two-years-centre-tells-supreme-court-2288480
Loan Moratorium Can Be Extended For 2 Years: Centre To Supreme Court
The central government on Tuesday informed Supreme Court that loan moratorium period can be extended by two years as per the RBI's circular.
https://www.ndtv.com/business/loan-...-two-years-centre-tells-supreme-court-2288480
A readable article
he Indian economy, in three time horizons
GDP growth declined continuously for eight quarters except an 8 basis point blip between December 2018 and March 2019.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/busi...me-horizons/story-3gecMVOJXFZoZ8Fp0IzZ0I.html
"Consumption demand is the biggest driver of economic growth. In 2019-20, Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) had a share of 57% in India’s GDP. PFCE growth collapsed to 2.7% in the March 2020 quarter, the lowest since June 2012. Given the headwinds to consumption demand, firms shelved investment plans. And Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contracted at an increasing rate for three consecutive quarters ending March 2020. "
he Indian economy, in three time horizons
GDP growth declined continuously for eight quarters except an 8 basis point blip between December 2018 and March 2019.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/busi...me-horizons/story-3gecMVOJXFZoZ8Fp0IzZ0I.html
"Consumption demand is the biggest driver of economic growth. In 2019-20, Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) had a share of 57% in India’s GDP. PFCE growth collapsed to 2.7% in the March 2020 quarter, the lowest since June 2012. Given the headwinds to consumption demand, firms shelved investment plans. And Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contracted at an increasing rate for three consecutive quarters ending March 2020. "
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