Going with the Intraday Mini-Flow!!

[Saint]

By alex_laxya

30 min. tf, yesterday

If we consider second bar after red wrb as a negation bar, and very next bar as a resting white bar, then h.of this bar + room bo taken as entry point then we wd hv whipsawed out.
Is this a valid entry point or i am taking this negating bar concept in wrong context ?
We didnt trade in afternoon hours but if we wd have i must have confused, i am not getting the concept clear, it will extreme help if some one clarify bit more.

Alex,

Not correct in understanding,my friend....let's go through it again.

Have a look at the 15min bar at 1:15pm on 20th Oct,2008.High volumes came in,forgot what the specific news was all about........whatever it was,high volumes came in pushing price to new highs.Observe that this high volume bar came in after 2 bars pullback.Also observe that the wide range bar negated 2/3rds even before the completion of the bar.....Now this is not a wide range bar in the final analysis of things.Short below the low of that bar if the next bar cannot go to new highs.Next bar fell and reversed us to short.

Now the above was a no-brainer.......quite evident that in doing whatever it did,it also formed a pivot and we would have reversed either way.But the point is that when the volumes come in like that,the bar must go on to make new highs.....and failing to do so is doubly bearish.It therefore not only is a pivot break that gets us into that trade,but it also is no follow through and a failed breakout pattern that gets us in.


Now have a look at the 2pm bar on the 23rd of Oct,2008........nearly 12 bars forming a sideways pattern after which we get a big breakout bar at 2pm endin at its highs.Next bar was a bearish bar,no issues......and then a fall from there.We have ourselves a failed WRB breakout.....

Observe that one pulled back forming a tail,and the other formed a full fledged WRB before falling off......but both came in high volumes(forget the reasons,it really does not matter),and then a trend reversal.Similarity therefore is that the particular bar in question ended the trend,came in higher than avg volumes,both came after sideways to mild pullback moves.

Now let us go to Friday's bar that you had cited above........notice that the move down happens in vertical straight fashion.There is no sideways congestion or mild pullback on the 30......let us have a look at the 15min charts.Our entry is at BAR 3.BAR 5,6 were sideways bars,after which we got ourselves a pivot,now a WRB on the 15min on higher than avg volumes,fresh from a congestion area.Same as the above examples.....Now the next bar must take out BAR 7 low.In this case,BAR 8 does just that.And then BAR 9 takes out the low of BAR 8......Hope you are getting me on this,BAR 7 is our breakdown bar,we are watching with abated breath whether this WRB Breakdown Bar can get negated........in this case,unlike on 20th and 23rd,it doesn't.It goes on to form Bar 8 and 9.

To reiterate:On Friday,we have a WRB,we have a higher than average volume,but breakdown bar goes on to form new lows.

All we do in this case therefore is to revert to our 2 bar method of dealing with such moves .......our stop at BAR 10(it formed new lows) is the high of BAR 8 which did not get taken out.

Hope you got this.......anything else,get back to me.

Saint

 

[Saint]

The 12.30 bars High value is 2729.45!!!!!! The high of bar at 1 PM is 2727, The high of bar at 1.30 is at 2735!!!
Why would we not go above the 12.30 high plus room!!!??? More so when the difference is so small!!!

Not every WRB.......WRB breakouts/breakdowns on high volumes must go on to make newer highs or lows.

Taking the 30min charts,there is a straight move down and then a WRB on higher volumes.Yes,look to go long if the entire bar is negated.viz2764 + room.

All corrections and congestions usually happen within the range of that WRB......meanwhile our stops using the 2 bar on the 15 is also at 2764+room.

WRB Breakout examples......have a look at the 23rd of Oct.WRB breakdown example.....have a look at 7th Oct 2008.

Saint

 

[Saint]

We might have saved by whisker, but we cant take it for granted, since we considering negating bar, shouldnt we consider the quality of the negating bar? how about we set the limit of 78 % retrace limit for negating bar? or negating bar must be hammer,lower/higher wicks etc.. or without making it complicated we better take loss on stride ??

78%???Now how did we come to that number.......

Nope,nothing like that.........taking longs,a WRB breakout pattern on high volumes must go on to make newer highs.If it doesn't,and the next bar takes out more than half and closes near the low of that bar,look to reverse.

These don't happen everyday.....not knowing it and following the basic rules is not going to harm you.Knowing it though can prove to be of added benefit.

Saint

 

[orderflow13]

Thanks Saint sir for detail explanation.Now i am sure that volume playing supporting role and one better watch it closely to take cues.
My understanding is very clear than it was before.Though i have to look at the previous dated charts mentioned in your reply to get the feel of the answer.
Thanks for everything
Alex

 

[Saint]

i was checking past data of nf,30 min tf, i found its very rare that wrb has been negated, and more rare is after negating wrb, the break of negating bar turn out to be false breakout. i think we will be still in the profit if we whipsawed out sometimes, thats what past data suggest.
interestingly i am finding more whipsaws and false signals in equity shares on the same parameter.

Whipsaws happen.....part of trading.

But don't apply what is stated about WRB Breakout patterns to every WRB that you come across.

And another thing:We have BAR 1 which is a WRB breakout,we have BAR 2 that makes a bearish candle finishing near its lows.BAR 3 breaks below the low of BAR 2 .BAR 4 breaks below the low of BAR 3 and negates the entire WRB breakout.

So,for those who are seeing things clearly,short below the low of BAR 2,add below the low of BAR 4.........Add on the negation of the entire WRB.If you must call it that,a negation bar,that would be BAR 4 and not BAR 2.

Saint

 

[Saint]

well, personally, on muhurat trading day, I would just aim to close/exit a trade on a profit basis - i am not looking that day where it has to fulfill my daily profit targets. In other words, I would be happy even with a small profit - a "shagun" profit - something which u get from your elders/friends as token good luck for the year ahead. (Market is our elderly "teacher", after all); you don't see the amount, u see the feelings

So, mostly, I'll be trading the break of the 1st 5 min bar (AS USUAL), and exit at a reasonable & profitable price level - whether this takes another 5 mins or 15 mins.
After all, I am not sure, but this muhurat trading time may clash with Maa Laxmi's Puja time. So, I may not be able to sit out the entire one hour.

Same here........will obey rules and stops as always,and no issues if at the end of the day,loss d/t stops.......but will be keeping things tight when in profits.

Saint

 

[Saint]

.................PS: I would not delete this post after a while

Phew....a new record for you,NC......

Some great posts from your end have been deleted by yourself,I don't see why....another one in the same category is RK.

And now recently,Smart Trade........c'mon guys,delete crap if you want to.But you guys are not capable of that anyway......no reason why some fantastic posts by you all have been deleted.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Keep first 5 min bar break ,moving filter of 14,reversal 7,add 5 everything same but trade 10 min flow instead of 30 min as we have less trading time that day.Rest everything as usual VPS. Be confident that you will make great trades that day and get Laxmi ji's blessings.

Muhurat days my experience is that FIIs dont participate and participants are quick in booking profits so we will not have large moves but we will make best of whatever we get that day.

Best wishes,

ST

Good stuff,SmartTrade(ST from now on)

Saint

 

[Saint]

Have been Trading this method since 4 weeks ( From 29th Sep). It has produced 1233 points. Have I got them all. Sadly no. Err is mine. First two weeks going was very good, unbelievable gains. In the 3 / 4 week, I chickened out from 3rd Trade after reverses in the first two Trades. On 15th, 16th, 20th third Trade not only recovered the initial losses, but ended in gains!!!. Half of my first two weeks gains got wiped off. To crown this, could not Trade on 17th & 24th due to other preoccupations. 440 points was there to be taken on these two days.

Still in Gains, unbelievable for a chronic loser.

I don't think that I am good enough to tweak. Not sticking to Plan seems to be my biggest problem.

Cheers

Well done,my friend.

Saint

 

[orderflow13]

Whipsaws happen.....part of trading.

But don't apply what is stated about WRB Breakout patterns to every WRB that you come across.

And another thing:We have BAR 1 which is a WRB breakout,we have BAR 2 that makes a bearish candle finishing near its lows.BAR 3 breaks below the low of BAR 2 .BAR 4 breaks below the low of BAR 3 and negates the entire WRB breakout.

So,for those who are seeing things clearly,short below the low of BAR 2,add below the low of BAR 4.........Add on the negation of the entire WRB.If you must call it that,a negation bar,that would be BAR 4 and not BAR 2.

Saint

Sir sorry for trouble, but i am not yet cleared about differentiating WRB, u mean we must respect wrb which is itself a break out wrb ? and watch follow through very closely ? and must give more importance to such break out wrb than any other wrb ?