Going with the Intraday Mini-Flow!!

[Sunil]

Sunil,

Thanks for the exhaustive explaination of pivots.. Helps clear some doubts for sure..

I have been trying out a simpler heuristic.. First look for pivots on 30 min.. Mostly a 30 min pivot gets confirmed on 15 min first, so now we look at pivots on the 15 mins, but as you had rightly pointed out on 3rd and 5th nov, we had pivots on the 15 min, which should not be taken as SAR. The method I am using is pretty simple.. Look in the 20 min tf to confirm the pivot on the 15 min.. Using a timeframe that is offset from the other timeframe, we can clearly distinguish between clear textbook pivots and those that are slightly not easily visible.. So right now i am looking at 30 min, 60 min, 20 min and 15 min.. When a pivot is confirmed on the 15 min, look at 20 min and 30 min to see if it is looking like a pivot would be formed on these 2 time frames. Also see if the 15 min pivot coincides with the high/log of a 60 min bar. If one goes thru the charts for the past 1 month and looks at the pivots identified as SAR, almost all of them fulfil this criteria.

A few more things to consider when looking at pivots on the 30 min TF (takin PH examples here)
a. 2-3 bars having visually the same rough high value would constitute a PH.
b. 3 or more bars with visually similar high and low values would also constitute as a valid pivot high & low for the mini flow method.
c. A V move, which would be a up bar slightly longer than the preceding bars followed by a down bar with the up bar closing near its highs and the down bar opening near the highs..

Besides this, the key as per my understanding has been to look at points where the market has turned. A pivot as per saint's latest definition is the point where the market has turned around. This is something that is not very easy to do in the begining, but looking at pivots from this point of view and understanding how various candlestick bars form would help you to identify pivots a lot more easily than by using the textbook examples. Those are also pivots, but for methods like the mini flow, we need to be a lot more agressive..

One thing that anyone can do is to load past data in amibroker and then to run it in bar by bar replay with 1 min interval. Once you start the replay, you can pause it and ask amibroker to move one bar at a time by clicking on the > button on the bar by bar replay window. This makes it very easy to see bars as they are being formed and how pivots get formed and hence how to identify them. Doing this for data of 3-4 months will give anyone a good idea of how to spot pivots..

-- no1lives4ever

What u have mentioned is not a "simple heuristic" BUT THIS IS ACTUALLY HOW IT IS TO BE DONE....
there's no other way..
15/20min TF is like small kids...
they will come & poke us in realtime trading saying that " I HAVE A PIVOT, I HAVE A PIVOT" ...
explain them to keep quiet & that u have to confirm their "birth" with their father (30min) and grand-father (60min)


Softwares like amibroker will not create the real feeling/atmosphere of realtime trading....
my advise to any newcomer / new user of this method would be to paper trade this method for atleast 2 full weeks. Better still, would be to use mini fut.

 

[vpsarathy]

VPS sir,

We have never interacted on this topic before... Your outburst is indeed a shocking surprise to me.
I realise I am of very small stature to explain something to YOU on SAINT's behalf...
But since it involves Saint Sir and some of my friends / co-members, I wanted to clear out somethings....

My previous post with some illustrations are some of the examples with which Saint sir has been trying to make us understand this method. These are realtime situations, and decisions were taken on the spot with consensus & explanation.
Even it pains me when i see some posts with 15min charts stating that 15min pivot high break is the reason to go long SAR.... even though that 15min PH is not supported by anything in 30/60... We can try & help others to avoid such mistakes, but in realtime trading, there's actually no time for arguments, etc. Either the other guy gets stopped out, or we enter late into his position - either way, we have to fully convince ourself before giving away a position.
You have to first understand the rules of the flow method, and make it clear that we are looking for REVERSAL PIVOT BARS IN MULTIPLE TFs, and not just any pivot in lower TF...

Extract from Saint Sir's rules:



What saint sir meant that we have to stop looking at our hands and trying to confirm whether we have a pivot high or low, and should we take that as SAR..
15/20 TF is such that u may find a pivot high/low forming every half-hour or every hour....
One has to remove the "dam" from the mind and realise that we are nop playing "hide-n-seek" game with pivot.... we have put in our money in a trade, and we will REVERSE it ONLY IF THE CONCERNED BAR'S HIGH/LOW IS TAKEN OUT....
We have to keep our mind open and w/o bothering what others are posting, we have to verify with our own eyes whether such a bar deserves to be called a REVERSAL BAR, by referring to all TF charts....
We have to take PH / PL ONLY ON ITS MERIT
MERIT = SUPPORTING VISUAL EVIDENCE FROM OTHER TF CHARTS...

AND BEST RULE IS: IF IN DOUBT, STAY OUT

With respect to your age, I would just request you to respect Saint's effort with which he has been trying to spread such jewels of trading & making sure that "guiding light" torch is not just lit for us, but it's also in our hands when we find ourselves in dark (in simple words, to be self-dependent; learning to fish ourself)

Open your mind; broaden your view; and focus ONLY on the chart of the scrip you are trading. For eg., if we are long, we have to visually confirm by looking at all TF charts, where bears will gain upperhand. Then, we will become bears ourselves & go short.
For first timers, it is advisable that this method be applied to only ONE scrip in one trading day, as it requires full concentration along with flexibility & adaptability to changing situation.
If one doesn't like this, then I guess, INTRADAY TRADING is not suitable for such a person.

Sunil,

I did not question reversal points nor use 15 TF pivot breaks and question. I am a slow learner but a sound learner. I went through your reversal and non reversal positions. I had no doubts on these from the beginning.

My question was how can one consider TF15 10.15 bar as a pivot and shift SL to its low-room, thats all. And how does one identify this as a pivot. What should the eye see. My question was simple. There was no necesity for so much noise and upset feelings. Yes I am stupid but would like to so only once in my life. Once I receive an answer I will not be stupid anymore.

vps

To this Saint burst out unnecessarily and even you misunderstood the situation and painfully wrote so much with a heavy heart. Your posts of the last one hour were a repeat reading and I was happy that I remembered everything.

I trade only NIFTY or MINIFTY and nothing else.

 

[no1lives4ever]

For first timers, it is advisable that this method be applied to only ONE scrip in one trading day, as it requires full concentration along with flexibility & adaptability to changing situation.
If one doesn't like this, then I guess, INTRADAY TRADING is not suitable for such a person.

While the mini flow method is a super method for day trading, I would not advice any first timer to start trading this method w/o sufficient experience in the market.. I have been studying this method for some time and I still face lots of problems while trying to implement the method.. I would categorise the mini flow as a method that is simple to explain to experienced people, but something that has tons of hidden assumptions that newcomers would not be able to understand on the first try..

As a first step, I would recommend any first timer to build up an account equity of around 2-5 lac rupees and then start with the 60 min flow. That method has much clearer and easier to understand rules. Once you have backtested the 60 min flow for around 6-10 months of past data and paper traded it for around 15 days to a month, trade that method for a few months. After a month or two of trading the 60 min flow with real money, start looking at the mini flow and definitely paper trade this method for at least a month and backtest it with data from aug to oct 2008 before you begin to even consider trading it with real money..

A few areas where I feel the mini flow introduces subjectivity:
a. Points where you take off profits.. It looks like only those with some past intraday trading experience are able to get to grips with this properly..
b. Identification of pivots - Unlike on the 60 min flow method, pivots on the mini flow are of a much more agressive type and requires observing them on multiple time frames.
c. Identification of reversals - Saint has given some examples for us to go thru and there are a few that he has mentioned he would show later on. I would recommend anyone who is looking at trading the mini flow to go thru at least one book on candlestick chart patterns.

The good thing about the mini flow is that you can use it on the cash market with very small lots of 3-6 shares and get a very good feel of how the method works in real time. This is something i would advice people new to the method to try out. Just ensure that you do not have a brokerage structure with a big minimum per trade commitment.. With the cash market, you can also do more rigid money management, but then you can not trade the nifty and follow what most people on this thread are trading during trading hours..

-- no1lives4ever

 

[no1lives4ever]

My question was how can one consider TF15 10.15 bar as a pivot and shift SL to its low-room, thats all. And how does one identify this as a pivot. What should the eye see. My question was simple. There was no necesity for so much noise and upset feelings. Yes I am stupid but would like to so only once in my life. Once I receive an answer I will not be stupid anymore.

Hi VPS,

I personally only consider a Pivot on 15 min TF, if it also is a pivot on 20 min tf or looks like becoming one in near future on the 20 min TF. Saint also mentions that you should look at 30 min and 60 min TF and see that the pivot looks like it can be a turning point on those timeframes. i.e. typically a low/high on the 60 and 30 min TF, as per my understanding. Mostly, what I look at is that a pivot on 15 should be looking like a pivot on the 20 or looking like it would be a potential pivot on the 20/30 before even considering it as SAR.

Saint,

Am I missing something here, or am I totally off base and just making up some random rules of my own which need not apply.

This reminds me of one quote i read somewhere recently seems to be pretty interesting, paraphrasing it here:
"Just by driving past a red light and not getting into an accident, you can know nothing. You can drive past a red light on a deserted road many times before you hit someone and get into serious trouble. Same way analyzing past data and making inferences from that can have serious implications when trading on the market."

-- no1lives4ever

 

[rkkarnani]

It is indeed frustrating when every one calls something a pivot when it does not follow the hand rule. I am unable to diatinguish pivots and non-pivots. Saint says go by the eye. What should the eye see? I am unable to follow. There are no clues to this even in Teach a man to fish...

Hi VPS, Visited the thread now only and saw your query!!! Before I 'try' to answer it , please consider my suggestion : It is desirable and also practical to have such queries which are the grass root basics on a weekend rather than during the market hours!!! Chances are your query shall be ignored/overlooked and maybe even ridiculed!!! Friends here are trading with real money now and no one is obliged to us to answer our such queries during "live" market!!!
Now coming to your query about Pivots which do not follow hand rule!!! VPS, the meaning of the word Pivot is : The turning point!!! Now if we have a bar making a high of 3052 and then the next bar makes a high of 3065 and the third bar makes a high of 3049, can you visualise the high of the middle bar standing out.(Sorry unable to post a chart as my MS Office is not working)

Bar1 high :3052
Bar2 high :3065
Bar3 high :3049

I am sure your 'eyes' will see the second bar as protruding above the high of the bars on its each side. Can you now see it as a Pivot?
As Saint had repeatedly said , do not be fussy about the hand analogy, the 5 bars etc. etc. so when you you see such a formation do not count the bars just 'see' whether it is a Pivot!!!
Moreover you will find N number of posts on this subject in 60 minutes flow , do try to go through the thread!!!
If this answers your query I shall be happy, if not do PM me your confusion!!!
In any case do try to 'ask' such questions on weekends and now the best is to post your queires in "Mistakes I made in flow" thread".
All the best.

 

[rkkarnani]

Will some one help me to go to Std 6 please?
vps

VPS, Let us do it a step at a time!!!
Take the first step : Go through atleast 100 days charts and try to see the Pivots!!!! Go through the charts for the period of this thread, note down your trades and countercheck them with actual trades here!! Then post your queries on a Friday evening!!!

 

[Sunil]

time of this post:10:27

15min pivots in place....confirmations in 4 mins time.

Those who are in already:Raise SAR to 3030-7=3023.

Those who are yet to get in:This move is Move 1,and the 14pt filter kept us out.....SAR at 3030-7=3023


Saint

Sunil,

I did not question reversal points nor use 15 TF pivot breaks and question. I am a slow learner but a sound learner. I went through your reversal and non reversal positions. I had no doubts on these from the beginning.

My question was how can one consider TF15 10.15 bar as a pivot and shift SL to its low-room, thats all. And how does one identify this as a pivot. What should the eye see. My question was simple. There was no necesity for so much noise and upset feelings. Yes I am stupid but would like to so only once in my life. Once I receive an answer I will not be stupid anymore.
.

OOOOOPS
i think there has been a mis-understanding here, by you, VPS Sir,
that 15min pivot high was for entry of long position. that 10:15 bar high 3060 coincided with WRB 10:30....
that's why Saint sir mentioned, after wait of 4mins, it's a long above 3060+room(14)
that 15min pivot high had nothing to do with SAR shifting for those already into long

SAR was for those who already went long (reason for long was due to subjective 1st 5min bar, which differs IN EVRYONE'S CASE EVERYDAY.... Sharekhanites always have diff. figures), or for those waiting to take any position
SAR was the 30min WRB low (again to be confirmed in next 4mins, at completion of that bar)


this is what i feel has been misunderstood....

 

[SriVijay]

thanks to all .............i am now somewhat...underline somewhat .. understood pivots....thank you my masters......

kindly post every day 30 and 15 tf charts ( pivots ) on eod with explanations ....this new bee can understand with help of visual charts .......
thankyou
regards
Vijayakumar

 

[vpsarathy]

Sunil,

10.30 30TF covers only 32 points. Do you call this a WRB? Some time (a month) back when I asked whether a bar was a WRB, I was clearly told by one of the seniors that to qualify for a WRB a bar should have traversed 50 points atleast.

I still wonder how the 15TF 10.15 bar qualifies to be a pivot. What do u SEE in it to be a pivot. Pl tell me as such situations come too often.

vps

 

[no1lives4ever]

Sunil,

10.30 30TF covers only 32 points. Do you call this a WRB? Some time (a month) back when I asked whether a bar was a WRB, I was clearly told by one of the seniors that to qualify for a WRB a bar should have traversed 50 points atleast.

I still wonder how the 15TF 10.15 bar qualifies to be a pivot. What do u SEE in it to be a pivot. Pl tell me as such situations come too often.

vps

Hi VPS,

I do not know if Saint put it as such on this thread, but on the 60 min flow thread, Saint clearly mentioned a few time that WRB/NRB are relative concepts. A WRB is a bar that is significantly taller than the bars preceding it. Also WRBs are those bars which have a big body with open/close being very close or at the high/low of the bar.

A good approximation is a bar which is say around 40-50% taller than the height preceding 3-4 bars.

As for the pivot in question, it is clear on the 15 min tf. Remember, when you are looking at pivot lows, you only concentrate on the lows of the bars and not on the highs. For the mini flow, when we are looking at pivots, we look for any visually obvious pivot. What this means is that when you look at the chart from a distance, one bar or a couple should stand out as the place where the price went up/came down to a point and then moved in the other direction. But then we also consider 2-3 bar consolidation on the 30 mins and some 2 bar formations also as pivots. This is not something that will follow any textbook definition of pivots and in general pivots are something that you start to recognise after you look at the bars as they form. In this case, the low of the 10:15 bar today was lower than the lows of the 10:00 bar and 10:30 bar in 15 min timeframe, hence at 10:45 this would be a confirmed pivot low.. As for why would saint call it a pivot at 10:30, my guess is that he did this because this bar was an up bar and the price had moved to the low point and then come back to close higher than the open, so my view is that at 10:30, this was a very aggressive pivot, while at 10:45, it was a clear pivot with a 3 bar formation.

Try this, get amibroker, if you already do not have it and download data for at least 2 months into amibroker. I would recommend using the data posted by soumya_b. Once you have the data, first go thru the charts using the scroll bar and try to identify pivots. Then run the data in bar by bar replay mode and see the bars being formed as you step through the bars. This way, you can see the data for one day in around 15-20 mins. Pivot observation would become much much easier. You can open 3 charts linked to your primary charts and then set the timeframe for the 4 charts to 60 min, 30 min, 20 min and 15 min. Once you have the 4 charts linked, then the bar by bar replay feature will update all the 4 charts simultaneously and this way when you compare the charts posted by others with the past data, you will be able to see how pivots form and how they look based on different price actions..

-- no1lives4ever
PS: The more i read your doubts, the more I feel that you should go through the 60 mins flow thread from page 1. That thread deals with a lot of your queries and you should seriously consider trading the 60 min flow for a month or two before you try the mini flow.