back...
had a severe net connection problem today...
the trades as per my understanding:
1. Long at 2750+7 = 2757 with SAR 2713-7
Breakout happened with WRBs in both 15 & 30 followed by 2 resting bars in 15min & 1 resting bar in 30min
personally came out of longs on break of the low of the 2nd resting bar in 15min ie 2738-7
(LAST NIGHT, I HAD JUST POSTED A SIMILIAR TRADE'S (REVERSAL FAILURE) VERY GOOD EXAMPLE BY ST IN OUR LIBRARY THREAD, maintained by hari)
2. went short at break of the resting bar in 30 min ie 2718-7 = 2711
SAR = 2775+7
some profit booking was obviously done near known support region of 2670 (as had mentioned in Asish da's thread before mkt open)
SAR was also shifted to 2759+7, as per 4 bar rule in 30 & also going with the high of WRB in 60...
this has not broken yet...
new SAR/STOP NOW is 2755+7 (PH in both 15/30 + WRB high in 60)
Posting today's charts:
15/30/60min Bar 1: H=2750, L=2717; Long at 2750+14=2764, Short at 2717-14= 2703
15min Bar 2: H=2731, L = 2714; still no trade; Long still at 2750+14, short NOW at 2714-14
15min Bar 3: H=2745 L=2722; still no trade, but nifty has made 2 directional moves & 30 MIN BAR 2 IS ALSO COMPLETE NOW...
So, we go LONG AT 2745+7=2752; SHORT AT 2714-14=2700
(room 14 for 1st move of the day ie down & room 7 for 2nd move of the day ie up)
15min Bar 4: H=2775 L=2737
Long trade is triggered at 2752 with SAR at 2714-7=2707 Risk=45
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Now this 15min Bar 4 is a WRB breakout bar (which we see on its completion)... correspondingly, a WRB breakout bar in 30min (bar 3)...
No, this is the crucial movement...
Observe 15min Bar 4,5,6
WRB Bar 4 followed by another nearly equal sized bar 5... we take it as a resting bar, Lows are within that of Bar4
Bar 6's low & high are now within that of Bar 5.... enough of rest.. next bar should start moving upwards....
Heck nooooooo....... Bar 7 goes even below the low of Bar 4.... I am out of longs at 2737-7=2730...
BUT I DONT ENTER SHORTS NOW AS PER THIS SYSTEM, AS STILL 30MIN BAR IS TO GIVE CONFIRMATION
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So, during formation of 15min Bar 7, I had exited my longs...
Now, 15Min Bar 7 AND 30min Bar 4 are complete
WHAT DO WE SEE IN 30MIN CHART....
A WRB BAR 3 FOLLOWED BY A RESTING BAR 4......
I WANT NEXT 30MIN BAR 5 TO CONTINUE ITS UPMOVE.... BUT IF IT TAKES OUT 30MIN BAR 4'S LOWS, ITS A CONFIRMATION OF BREAKOUT FAILURE & WE GO SHORT
WORDS OF OUR MASTER:
Not many posts here this evening.Everyone enjoying profits ?
Saint are you feeling well ? If so please guide me on my following doubt.
I am posting NF 30 min chart below :
We had a strong breakout bar at 2:00 yesterday (23-10-08) .The next bar was a bearish bar (black candle ) as a resting bar. I have read a rule that the resting bar is ok but the next bar after resting bar has to continue in the direction of WRB (bullish in our example).If it breaks the low of the resting bar then reverse.
There could be 2-3 sideways movement bars after WRB and we will assume the first bar as resting bar but 2nd bar can break the low of the resting bar in a sideways movement and we will reverse our position prematurely on break of resting bar low (low of 1st bar of the sideways movement. How do we guard against this premature reversal ?
Should we cosider the length of the resting bar ? In our case resting bar was a WRB in itself so I was very confident of reversing below the low of this bar but had it been a smallish bar,then I would not have been very sure of reversal if this bar,s low is cracked in next 1-2 bars.
How do I solve this bit of a dilema ?
Answer at your convenience.
Smart_trade
here's the reply by Saint Sir:
SmartTrade,
You have yourself resolved the dilemma.....and bang in target as always.A WRB to the up,on increased volumes moving quick and steep, is followed by a resting candle that is a bearish candle usually negating half or more than half of the previous WRB.......Look to short the low of that candle.Most of the times it goes your way,sometimes it doesn't as is in most things trading related.And,yes,in contrast,a nrb after a wrb only adds to the bullishness of the entire pattern.
The negation of the entire wrb is confirmation of the bearishness........you could even add to your short positions on the negation of the entire WRB.
Saint
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so we go short at 30min Bar 4's low 2718-7=2711
15min Bar 8 does that,
we are now short at 2711 with SAR at 15/30min pivot high at 2775+7=2782 (Risk=71points)
15min Bar 9,10,11 / 30min Bar 5 & 6
Now, the down move continues....
in 30min chart,
at END OF BAR 6, WE SHIFT THE SAR TO HIGH OF EARLIER TWO BARS (AS PER 4BAR RULE) ie AT 2759+7=2766 (risk=55points)
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15min Bar 12 to 17:
hey, now what do we have... why it is not going down further....
relax, we know where is our SAR..
but we have a PH in 15min chart at 2708.... shouldn't we go long at its break at 2708+7
AN EMPHATIC NOOOOOOOOOOO.... as per the system...
if ur stomach is upsetting you & u cannot take the risk, then come out of the trade, BUT WE DONT GO LONG AS PER SYSTEM'S RULES....
but why?
BUDDY, JUST REFER TO 30MIN & 60MIN CHARTS AS USUAL....
hey now that 30min Bar 5 (a WRB) - it's high is taken out... we should go long now, na?
NO AGAIN...... what makes you think that 30min Bar 5 is a good reversal bar... is it a pivot bar - no;
then refer to 60min chart for clues...
what do u see..?
LOOK AT 60MIN BAR 3... a hell of a WRB....
our 4bar rule's SAR 2759+7 also goes with the high of this 60min WRB
real bullishness starts when this level breaks....
60min Bar 4 has done nothing to threaten 60min Bar 3
WE ARE LOOKING AT REVERSAL OF THE MOMENTUM/INCLINATION FLOW..
NOT JUST SCALPING SOME TRADES HERE & THERE...
words of our master:
in brief: Don't look at reversal bars if any on the 30,it is the 60 wherewe are looking at reversal bars,etc
Every bar on the 60 is not something we take action upon.......in today's case,what we had was a WRB Breakdown from 2 sideways bars followed by a resting bar that was way below the 50% of that WRB,meaning,only on negation of the entire wrb,do we think of reversing.
Saint
SO WE ARE STILL SHORT & DON'T REVERSE TO LONG
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Look what the mighty bears did ultimately near that 2759 level....
they came in droves to save that 2759 level from being broken....
ULTIMATELY, WE GET OUR SAR IN PH IN 15MIN BAR 17 & 30MIN BAR 9....
but it was already profit-booking time & nearing closing time....
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