how much return you expect from commodity market

[ashwani chadha]

dear ashwani,

i am trying to apply concepts of market dynamics (long/short etc.) as explained by you in this thread. Here is a summary of the mts that i propose:

have defined daily support & resistance levels(100 % perfect trading with support resistance and pivot is the best technique of trading)
[ii] we are long when the trend is "confirmed long"(100 % perfect-capital multiplies when we reach at this stage)
[iii] we are short when the trend is "confirmed short"(100 % perfect capital multiplies when we reach at this stage)
[iv] we are long when trend changes from "confirmed short" to un confirmed long.( now it is 100 % perfect)
[v] we are short when trend changes from "confirmed long" to un confirmed short.(now it is 100% perfect)
[vi] in this way we are always in the market.(u are 100 % perfect)

the above appears to be better than moving average.
U are 100 % perfect,once u will be expert in using this technique of trading,then u will not run against profits but profits will run against u !!!!!!

Kindly give your advice.

Regards

rajeev

ps: My sharekhan account has also come. Before jumping in, i want to define a mts based on eod. Then as suggested by you, i will post my entries/exist to compare with yours and try to improve them.

i have modified ur statement where required

 

[Rajeevji]

i have modified ur statement where required

Dear Ashwani,

Thanks. I have a eureka feeling.

Please correct my understanding: a trend can be called "un confirmed" when and only when the price is below resitance but above support.

regards

Rajeev

 

[cotton]

Thanks Ashwani... got a fair bit of EOD trader and i have done some analysis in last 1 week using past moves and what you have said here is quite correct...at eod we need to hold moves...and even if the move does not hold and stop loss is hit..it will be very minimum loss...
My strategy will be now...
1) Get in the move start...(100 % perfect-open ur trade from the beginning of the trade !!!)
2) calculate the stop loss using the standard Pivot and using the atr method.(enter in trade from standard pivot -perfect !!!!)
3) hold the position till the SL is not hit...(100 % perfect !!!!-it is main point of the game)
4) immediately using SAR method open the next move...(till u are not expert never open second trade in same commoditi,u will be caught-i will teach u m.m.technique for adding furthur positions at a later stage
5)standard s/r technique/ATR/S AND R-THESE ARE THREE DIFFERENT STOP LOSS TECHNIQUE-u can use one off them at a time,can not mix all the three)
Let me know if i need to make any change in the stategy...

Thanks Ashwani...I am not opening new trade using SAR but once the SL is hit will open a new trade with the same commodity...

 

[ashwani chadha]

Dear Ashwani,

Thanks. I have a eureka feeling.

Please correct my understanding: a trend can be called "un confirmed" when and only when the price is below resitance(upper) but above support(lower).
now it is 100 % perfect
regards

Rajeev

dear rajeev,ur answer is perfect
most advanced technique is most simple technique
it is based on just two lines
one line at the bottom( it is lower resistance and lower support also)
one line at the top(it is upper resistance and upper support also)
now the area in between lower support and upper resistance is called no mans land
and when ever price is trading in between lower support and upper resistance, it means it is in no mans land area
in this area bulls and bears are considered in equal strength ,move can be snached by other party any time
that is why it is considered,if price is trading in no mans land area it means ,it is in non confirmed trend
and below lower support is confirmed short trend
and above upper resistance move is in confirmed long trend
dear rajeev,now the concept should be
100 % clear to u
THANKS

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ashwani, thank-you. I do have access to some of the Indian markets through my GCI demo platform. The same metal rates all line up between my real and demo platforms.
Thanks for your quick response. I'm glad you have gotten some benefit from the posts I've made. I also look forward to hearing from Cotton.

dear paul,i am thankfull to u for ur above mentioned post.dear cotton is a keen learner and he is having thrust for learning,so i am doing my
leval best to teach him and few other friends and regular learners of this thread,some basic principal of trading.
after quite long time he will be in position to give perfect answer to a learned person like u
u have access to indian charts also, as u are giving ur views on nifty also.
i can give comment if either chart is provided in indian currency or if u give ur support/resistance r1 r2 r3 s1 s2 s3 and pivot of commodities in any particular date but in indian Rs mentioning which month CONTRACT data u provided even if u dont give charts in indian Rs it will work
i was not able to co-relate this chart with any commodity in indian RS ,so was unable to comment
as a learned trader u are using the best possible technique available in the world,using various trend lines also over and above various supports and resistance
in knowledge i might be one step behind u(in technicals)
so i have taken advantage of ur knowledge to modify my mechnical trading system
with the more knowledge,i gained as a T.A.i used it to make mine mts more simple
at present in mine MTS i use three lines ONE SUPPORT LINE ----TWO RESISTANCE LINE----THREE PIVOT LINE -if move was left ,so to enter in between the trade i use pivot other wise not
i use only two indicators ONE RSI TWO STOCH
i dont use these indicators for decision of trade but to know ,at which stage the move is
my all trading decisions are based on support/resistance/pivot(and no other information i use)
and still it is one of the most popular technique of trading(un disclosed technique whose all information is available in the mind of seniors and one has to catch it with his own knowledge if it is enough to catch it)
i will be obliged if these informations are of some use to u and if u can accomdate to provide data in indian Rs ,i will be in a position to give accurate answer and will be obliged to give answer thanks once again for the post
note;i gave live demo of my mechnical trading system moves, at this thred, in all the nine commodities for a month, and capital was doubled in a month,all the informations of that demo are available at this thread,if that can be of some use ,u can go through it(ur furthur comments at mine demo will increase mine knowledge)

 

[4xpipcounter]

Rajeevji, let me add to Ashwani's comment just a little. Whenever a market is caught between an S and R, it is like floating with no place to go. A lot of times even when it is floating between those key levels, you can get an indication which level is going to break by checking with a more dominant timeframe. As an example, let's say the 4-hour is the float, then you check the daily and find it just bounce off a key S or R. Then, plan on entering the direction of the daily. The only bad thing is that you can building a habit of chasing the trade which is not good.

Dear Ashwani,

Thanks. I have a eureka feeling.

Please correct my understanding: a trend can be called "un confirmed" when and only when the price is below resitance but above support.

regards

Rajeev

 

[Rajeevji]

Rajeevji, let me add to Ashwani's comment just a little.....

Dear Paul,

Thanks for the additional input.

I also wish to thank you for one of ur comments in a thread on spread trading. You mentioned Joe Ross and I could get his articles at tradingnaked.com and read his book 'Trading Spreads and Seasonals'. This is led me to attempt some study on these in Indian commodities. The reseach is still in infancy since I have a fulltime job, however, seasonals appear to be a potentially profitable area.

regards

Rajeev

 

[ashwani chadha]

dear paul, i will be obliged if u can throught some more light on ur above statement connected with ur explaination of multi time frame,taking advice from more dominent time frame
thanks in advance

 

[4xpipcounter]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Ashwani, we actually have 3 setups on this chart to go short:
1. Candle hit the top of the cloud.
2. The light blue line marks the point of the dip from the 1-2-3 formation from on top.
3. The tenken was broken which was actually the same point as the dip from the 1-2-3.

The green arrow shows the projection for the price action which should be solid support at the bottom of the cloud. This is where a lot of traders think, "Well, I missed the top of the cloud, and the dip, but I can still get in at the current level and ride it to the bottom."
That is what is called chasing the trade. There are no reference points for the entry. At current level, it is in the middle of nowhere. At this point you are entering hoping it will go all the way. It could also make a correction, then you have to ride in reverse until it turns back around.
What is not seen on this chart, and is not posted is the candle at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud with the stochastics OS.
This is why I say so much to take the trades at optimal times. Also, consider all TF's and what they are saying. Someone might say in looking at this chart and see there is still momentum point south, and what could be a clear shot to the bottom of the cloud. Then, they enter and it goes against them and then they wonder why.

dear paul, i will be obliged if u can throught some more light on ur above statement connected with ur explaination of multi time frame,taking advice from more dominent time frame
thanks in advance

 

[ashwani chadha]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Ashwani, we actually have 3 setups on this chart to go short:
1. Candle hit the top of the cloud.
2. The light blue line marks the point of the dip from the 1-2-3 formation from on top.
3. The tenken was broken which was actually the same point as the dip from the 1-2-3.

The green arrow shows the projection for the price action which should be solid support at the bottom of the cloud. This is where a lot of traders think, "Well, I missed the top of the cloud, and the dip, but I can still get in at the current level and ride it to the bottom."
That is what is called chasing the trade. There are no reference points for the entry. At current level, it is in the middle of nowhere. At this point you are entering hoping it will go all the way. It could also make a correction, then you have to ride in reverse until it turns back around.
What is not seen on this chart, and is not posted is the candle at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud with the stochastics OS.
This is why I say so much to take the trades at optimal times. Also, consider all TF's and what they are saying. Someone might say in looking at this chart and see there is still momentum point south, and what could be a clear shot to the bottom of the cloud. Then, they enter and it goes against them and then they wonder why.

dear paul,thanks for the explaination and now the concept is quite clear to me