How to trade Commodities - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas

[uttamkamlesh]

Respected Kamlesh Ji,

I would like to thank you for the knowledge sharing. I usually trade in Crude Oil and found that Crude is very rude commodity. However, today I traded according to your post and shorted it at 5176 and covered very conservatively at 5141. It was the biggest gain for me since I have started trading in commodities couple of months ago. I would like to thank you for your observations and analysis.

Regards
Shailender Bali

Hi Shailender...welcome here...keep on working in fact hard working....you shall be handsomely rewarded.

 

[SavantGarde]

Theek hai Bhai.... Bahut log 'Hi' Boltey hain to mein kabhi kabhi 'Lo' bol deta hoon.....aap 'Sir' boliye hamey kya hai.... hum 'Paun' bolein gey...

SG

Hum to aapko 'Sir' hi bolenge, hamara man!....aapko jo karna karna hai kar lo...

 

[adityasaraf007]

Hi Aditya,

These are Demark's Trendline breakout qualifiers as described in his book "The New Science of Technical Analysis" as well as "Day Trading Options". He calls them Supply & Demand lines & the way to draw this is different than normal trendlines. First of all these have to be drawn from right to left as opposed to traditional trendlines which are drawn left to right.
In a downtrend we have to select a bar which has .higher close than the preceding & succeeding bar. This is the first TD Point. Next we keep on going to the left of the screen & find a similar point to the first one but has to be higher then it. This is second TD point. The trendline is drawn connecting these two lines & is called Supply Line.
Just replace high with low in the above para to draw demand line.

Now when the trendline breaks to determine whether it is a genuine or fakeout, TD Mark has provided with breakout qualifiers. The above chart describes the same. I'll just explain the Upside Breakout, just apply the opposite the downside breakout.

Q1. The bar prior to the upside breakout should have a close lower than the preceding bar close.

Q2: If there is a gap up opening with the open with the open greater than the supply line & also it goes on to create a high which is greater than the open, then the breakout is genuine.

Q3: If neither of the above two is applicable then we go to third one. If the supply line is greater than close + (same bar low or the previous close, whichever is lower) - & the current bar goes on to break the SL, then breakout is genuine.

Q4: This is an optional qualifier: The current bar open should be greater than previous two closes & the SL must be greater than the previous bars high.

Just replace high with low for downside breakout.

Thx

Thanks Abhi... Now that image makes some sense to this idiot......

 

[adityasaraf007]

Theek hai Bhai.... Bahut log 'Hi' Boltey hain to mein kabhi kabhi 'Lo' bol deta hoon.....aap 'Sir' boliye hamey kya hai.... hum 'Paun' bolein gey...

SG

Lo Sushilji.... Yo Yo


PS: Sorry Kamleshji... but couldn't resist....

 

[trade4profit]

Guys! Yesterday i thought of summarizing my system of BRL-[LH-LL] in the thread itself first and then later on preparing a .pdf booklet with all the rules, exceptions & numerous examples and uploading it at www.4shared.com so that it can be disseminated to traders community.

This method is my brainchild (Bearish Resistance Line is free of copyrights, LH-LL of course belongs to Dow Theory, but hybridizing the two for simple trading decisions is solely my idea) and hence i reserve all the copyrights and name it as "Uttam's Method of SELLING"

Kamlesh Uttam

Hi Kamlesh,

I have tried looking for the pdf in 4shared but haven't found with your name or the books name ""Uttam's Method of SELLING"". Can you please reupload

Thanks and Regards

 

[murthyavr]

Hi Aditya,

These are Demark's Trendline breakout qualifiers as described in his book "The New Science of Technical Analysis" as well as "Day Trading Options". He calls them Supply & Demand lines & the way to draw this is different than normal trendlines. First of all these have to be drawn from right to left as opposed to traditional trendlines which are drawn left to right.
In a downtrend we have to select a bar which has .higher close than the preceding & succeeding bar. This is the first TD Point. Next we keep on going to the left of the screen & find a similar point to the first one but has to be higher then it. This is second TD point. The trendline is drawn connecting these two lines & is called Supply Line.
Just replace high with low in the above para to draw demand line.

Now when the trendline breaks to determine whether it is a genuine or fakeout, TD Mark has provided with breakout qualifiers. The above chart describes the same. I'll just explain the Upside Breakout, just apply the opposite the downside breakout.

Q1. The bar prior to the upside breakout should have a close lower than the preceding bar close.

Q2: If there is a gap up opening with the open with the open greater than the supply line & also it goes on to create a high which is greater than the open, then the breakout is genuine.

Q3: If neither of the above two is applicable then we go to third one. If the supply line is greater than close + (same bar low or the previous close, whichever is lower) - & the current bar goes on to break the SL, then breakout is genuine.

Q4: This is an optional qualifier: The current bar open should be greater than previous two closes & the SL must be greater than the previous bars high.

Just replace high with low for downside breakout.

Thx

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Since these breakouts concern TD Demand/Supply lines, the TD points need
to be identified in the first place.

And I believe, the TD points have different degrees of strength - like Level1,
Level2 etc - depending on the earlier/subsequent highs/lows found for the
current TD point bar.

And basing on the levels, the TD lines again have different degrees of strength.
Like Level1 TD Line (where two recent Level 1 TD points are connected) etc.

Now my questions are:

• Which level TD lines are preferred or generally taken up for trading decisions?
  
• Or, since all TD points are basically Level-1 points, is further classification into Level2, 3 ignored?
  
• Do you automate identification of TD points - level-wise - through any program?

 

[abhi_neth]

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Since these breakouts concern TD Demand/Supply lines, the TD points need
to be identified in the first place.

And I believe, the TD points have different degrees of strength - like Level1,
Level2 etc - depending on the earlier/subsequent highs/lows found for the
current TD point bar.

And basing on the levels, the TD lines again have different degrees of strength.
Like Level1 TD Line (where two recent Level 1 TD points are connected) etc.

Now my questions are:

• Which level TD lines are preferred or generally taken up for trading decisions?
  
• Or, since all TD points are basically Level-1 points, is further classification into Level2, 3 ignored?
  
• Do you automate identification of TD points - level-wise - through any program?

Hi Mr. Murthy,

Let me start with TD Point levels.

Level 1 TD Point will be for a Supply Line a high bar with 1 preceding & succeeding bars with lower high.
Level 2 TD Point will be a high bar with 2 preceding & succeeding bars with lower high
& so on & so forth for Level 3, 4 etc.

I believe TD Mark has not mentioned anything regarding connecting Level 2 TD Points to for Level 2 TD Lines. I may be mistaken but I do not recollect anything as such. What I believe is he says the market is dynamic & our TL should reflect that. So line may be drawn connect Level 2 with Level 1 or level 3 with level one. Just keep on redrawing them as new TD Points develop.

Regarding your last question, no I do not have any automated software for identifying TD Points. though I sometimes use Williams Fractals when I am short of time, which basically identify Level 2 TD Points. Also, I draw TD Lines on Daily & Weekly TF & sometimes at 4H TF. So I have ample time to analyse them.

There are some mq4 indicators which draw these TL's automatically. I'm not happy with them, as they just draw the TL at all kinds of angles.

Thx

 

[timepass]

Hi Kamlesh,

I have tried looking for the pdf in 4shared but haven't found with your name or the books name ""Uttam's Method of SELLING"". Can you please reupload

Thanks and Regards

You can find some of Kamlesh's posts in pdf format here.

 

[murthyavr]

Hi Mr. Murthy,

Let me start with TD Point levels.

Level 1 TD Point will be for a Supply Line a high bar with 1 preceding & succeeding bars with lower high.
Level 2 TD Point will be a high bar with 2 preceding & succeeding bars with lower high
& so on & so forth for Level 3, 4 etc.

I believe TD Mark has not mentioned anything regarding connecting Level 2 TD Points to for Level 2 TD Lines. I may be mistaken but I do not recollect anything as such. What I believe is he says the market is dynamic & our TL should reflect that. So line may be drawn connect Level 2 with Level 1 or level 3 with level one. Just keep on redrawing them as new TD Points develop.

Regarding your last question, no I do not have any automated software for identifying TD Points. though I sometimes use Williams Fractals when I am short of time, which basically identify Level 2 TD Points. Also, I draw TD Lines on Daily & Weekly TF & sometimes at 4H TF. So I have ample time to analyse them.

There are some mq4 indicators which draw these TL's automatically. I'm not happy with them, as they just draw the TL at all kinds of angles.

Thx

Thanks abhi, for your prompt reply.

Sorry, I was mistaken about the TD Lines of different levels. Actually, there is
no such concept of TD Lines of different strengths; relevant TD points of any
level can be connected to construct the TD Line. Jason Perl also confirms
this in his book.

There is an AFL for TD Sequential system, which has an option (under Parameters)
to mark TD points. I can post it here, in case you don't have it already..
(It's easily available through google search also..)

Thanks for the new inputs..!

 

[prst]

Hi Kamlesh,

I have tried looking for the pdf in 4shared but haven't found with your name or the books name ""Uttam's Method of SELLING"". Can you please reupload

Thanks and Regards

search for only pdf documents under the name "uttam".