How to trade Commodities - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas

[adityasaraf007]

Minifty - 5min:

This is what I meant earlier where it gives a Gap Opening and doesn't gives the opportunity of a Retest..... Yesterday was an NR7 day and would have been an Inside Day as well but for yesterday's last minute rally...... And look what happened today....

 

[coolcorner78]

NIFTY has been Ghung Ho since 2nd Jan 2012, 45 days (33 trading days). PCR was heavily positive in Jan month and the same is now in Feb month too. Right now PCR is ruling at 1.75. Close to expiry it might go close to 2. Two months of back to back PCR of close to 2 for the whole month means next couple of months will be choppy to sideways for NIFTY. The legs for the current rally could take it to 5650 (this month expiry, and this is first level for resistance) and 5800 (where lot of resistance is there) which we may test next month (If NIFTY continues its move) and heavy supply could come in there.

If we have not corrected much, just check NASDAQ futures which has been making 11 year highs, how its performed since few months: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NQ&p=d1

 

[piyush08]

Thanks for the post. Can you explain why back to back months with PCR 2 should imply a range bound market for next two series.


Thanks,

 

[myamit]

yes...i have seen it....want purely mechanical ones which can be taught to any high school boy!.

Hello Kamlesh,

What exactly you're looking for in mechanical system? I've develped one using MA crossover and few other filters. System is purely mechanical and no human decision is required. (currently customized for Nifty current month futures).

I've tested (backtested for one year & live since one year) and results are wonderful. For extermly conservative settings (only 2 lots of Nifty, 25 points SL, 60 points Trail Stop) can fetch 500% earnings over last year.
Last trade was amazing as it gave buy signal at 4755 on nifty & exited around 5368. 613 points on a single trade

(in a hindsight I feel that if I would have kept 80 point trail than I would have been still in trade).
I'm still working on reentry (after stopped out) possibilities.

Do let me know should you wish to discuss about this system. Also do let me know if this is too preliminary & you are looking for something more.

Regards,

 

[coolcorner78]

Thanks for the post. Can you explain why back to back months with PCR 2 should imply a range bound market for next two series.

Thanks,

Its based on historical data. Even in a bull market peak, when we start hitting PCR above 2, it wont sustain for more than 2 months. And now we are coming making lows from Dec/Jan, and this is a different situation, rather than seeing huge volatility after irrational exuberance after bull market peaks, we will not here as we came from making lows and instead we will see sideways to healthy correction in the markets like profit booking/churning of portfolios.

(Also, the situation in the market are different now, with lot of liquidity, high frequency trading, it could be different this time, lets wait and see if its going to be new this time)

Though we will be having three big events, like elections, budget and monetary policy in March, I think lot of the positive news is already discounted by market and giving room on upside. The upside I think for current month is around 5650 and for March about 5800, +/- 100 points.

Cheers!

 

[mdrafi67]

Rafibhai, Thanks for posting your views on INR/USD. I wish you would do it regularly, and for other INR pairs too.

USD/INR gave a bullish 315 crossover on 10th Feb but is now heading towards a whipsaw.

As per the Island Reversal on the candle, can you please define the SL ?? Is it the high of the reversal candle (? 49.80) ??

@timepass...
Will try to update on INR pairs but i'm interested only in INR/USD bcoz of its volume and movement..........rt nw busy working on balanced equilibrium of the charts but once done THEN will be actively involve in this thread............

yes u r right....the SL of island reversal is its high ie., 49.8 INR....

MR

 

[praveen taneja]

Reason: Who wants to volunteer for belling this cat?....

Cat Bell

What can happen if you or me says Gold is going to move up nad mkt prove me wrong????

Gold is commodity with major affected by news and trades done by central Banks and Govts according to my little knowledge and as far as I know its easiest to trade as at whatever price you buy it give u within a few days ur rate + some profit so far range is 1705-1750 Break down would be bought fast and Upmove would be mouth watering

 

[uttamkamlesh]

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[uttamkamlesh]

Cat Bell

What can happen if you or me says Gold is going to move up nad mkt prove me wrong????

Gold is commodity with major affected by news and trades done by central Banks and Govts according to my little knowledge and as far as I know its easiest to trade as at whatever price you buy it give u within a few days ur rate + some profit so far range is 1705-1750 Break down would be bought fast and Upmove would be mouth watering

with cat and bell...i mean if there is someone tracking Gold consistently then only there will be discussion here...i wish you would post Gold charts regularly.....

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Hello Kamlesh,

What exactly you're looking for in mechanical system? I've develped one using MA crossover and few other filters. System is purely mechanical and no human decision is required. (currently customized for Nifty current month futures).

I've tested (backtested for one year & live since one year) and results are wonderful. For extermly conservative settings (only 2 lots of Nifty, 25 points SL, 60 points Trail Stop) can fetch 500% earnings over last year.
Last trade was amazing as it gave buy signal at 4755 on nifty & exited around 5368. 613 points on a single trade

(in a hindsight I feel that if I would have kept 80 point trail than I would have been still in trade).
I'm still working on reentry (after stopped out) possibilities.

Do let me know should you wish to discuss about this system. Also do let me know if this is too preliminary & you are looking for something more.

Regards,

Hi AMit...i am looking for a purely mechanical system which i can teach my younger brother...i have developed one...want to compare with the existing ones.....

yes it would be great if you can share details of your system....let's see if things can be improved...though 500% returns are more than sufficient....