Sensex 12000, Nifty 3573 ... what now? What do the charts tell?
--- Nothing definite. Sometimes thats what it is. We definitly don't want to take new positions. The indexes have been rallying straight 4 days (+ Friday even though it was a down day, indexes did not give much back). The parobolic move suggests, there might be some pull back pretty soon.
Looks like too many people are expecting a correction. Too much bearishness makes the market bullish. If it doesn't come down pretty soon, all the people who got stopped out recently and sitting in the sidelines waiting for the correction will jump back. This may lead to even more parabolic move in the indexes.
Sectors:
MIDCAP & SMLCAP & AUTO : Still have double top
IT : came down from double top ( WIPRO, SATYAMCOMP, TCS, INFOSYSTCH )
OILGAS: 1 day pull back after acceleration. Hopefully, we will find entries in this pretty soon.
METALS: we need it to come down more.
BANKS: forget this sector till it comes out of the trading range
Maintain your existing positions inspite of people advocating correction. That talk should only deter U from entering into new positions. In not ideal conditions, if you want to go in, reduce Ur position size to 50% or 25%. Some of the good runs what we discussed recently are Reliance, Morarealty. ITC is looking more like a double top. Mcdowell-N was stopped out and was set yesterday for a short (I did/will not advise though at this time).
Raasi Refractories stock. I have brought @ Rs.45 on Mid-August 2005
---U waited too long to come out this stock. U should have come atleast after the long term trend line was broken at 40 around Feb 2006. At this point, give it a chance with a stop at 20. It recently broke the down trend that started in Feb 2006 and testing again 24 support.
Indian Cement
---This is a beauty. Wait for pull back to enter. Right now, overbought and too extended. Hey, for all those following few stocks, this should definitly be in Ur bag.
Lesson: Stocks give you at least 1 chance to get out (in my observation). Lets say you did not honour Ur stop (I don't want U to do that). The stock will give you another chance to get out. But, in most cases, we don't get out. We get greedy and think there will be follow through. My suggestion to you guys is, when in doubt, execute 25% or 50% of position, either on the sell side or buy side. Atleast U will not be 100% wrong. Don't try to get every thing right. Don't be hard on Urself. Accept the fact that there will be mistakes made (even if U are a pro) and we will learn from them.
Some of the stocks that came in my scan:
1. ZUARIAGRO (Fertilizers sector)
2. KESORAMIND (Tyres sector)
3. DALMIACEM (Cement sector)